The Dollar Index faces resistance at 98.30 and 99 region, below which the range of 99-97/96 is likely to persist for some time. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while above 1.17, while EURINR can consolidate between 103.50-105.00 region. EURJPY needs to sustain above current levels to extend the rise to 174/75 as well. Similarly, on a breach past 148 USDJPY can head towards 150 and higher levels in the near term. USDCNY is closed for the week. Aussie has a scope to test 0.670-0.675 before getting peaked out, while Pound needs to breach 1.35 to open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR remained closed yesterday. US NFP, US Unemployment & US Avg Hrly data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.013) has risen a bit but the index is likely to consolidate between 99-97/96 region in the near term while the interim resistance near 98.30 and higher at 99 holds.

EURUSD (1.1723) is hovering just above the immediate support coming near 1.17 region. While it holds, the targets of 1.18-1.19 can be tested in the near term.

EURINR (104.0409) continues to consolidate within 103.50-105.00, and a breakout on either side is needed for further direction; until then, the range may persist.

EURJPY (173.05) had declined to the low of 172.26 but later recovered as well. While the rise sustains, a test to 174-175 can happen in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (147.66) tested 146.60 as anticipated before rising back later. Now, a break above 148 will be needed to extend the ongoing rise towards 150 and above in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.1185) will remain closed till 08-Oct on the account of the Golden week holiday.

While above 0.655, Aussie (0.6596) can rise to 0.670-0.675 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3439) needs to breach 1.35 to bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Broadly a range of 1.33-1.36/37 can hold for some time.

USDINR (88.7340) was closed yesterday on the account of Gandhi Jayanti & Dusshera. For now, the target of 89 is kept open while the pair trades above 88.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down and are at their support. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them further lower. The US jobs data will not be released today following the government shutdown. The German Yields remain lower and are at their support. They look vulnerable to break the support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. They can dip further to test its immediate support. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is managing to bounce back or not.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and 30Yr (4.70%) Treasury yields have come down and are at their support. Failure to rise back from here can drag them down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.6% (30Yr). That in turn will reduce the chances of the rise to 4.2%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8% -4.9% (30Yr) that we have been expecting.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.27%) yields remain lower. The yields look vulnerable for a fall to 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5230%) has come down sharply after testing 6.6%. It can test 6.5% now. A bounce back thereafter can take it back up to 6.6%. Else an extended fall to 6.45% can be seen.

The Dow has broken above immediate resistance at 46500 and if sustained, could head towards 47000 or higher. The Dax has also moved up well and can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty has risen, holding above 24600 and can test 25000 in the next few days. The Nikkei has risen sharply and could now be headed towards 46000-47000. Shanghai is likely to trade within 3800-3900 for the near term. A break above 3900, if seen can be bullish towards 4000.

The Dow (46519.72, +0.17%) has risen despite the weaker ADP payroll data and on the US shutdown. It has risen above the near term resistance at 46500 and the rise needs to sustain for the index to target 47000 and higher in the coming days. NFP data release today woould be crucial to watch.

DAX (24422.56, +1.28%) has risen well above 24000 and is headed towards 24500-24600 in the next few sessions. Thereafter, it would be important to see if the index can break higher and move up eventually else could be vulnerable to fall back towards 24000 or lower.

Nifty (24836.30, +0.92%) has risen well, holding above the support at 24600 and while the rise sustains, it can soon target immediate resistance near 25000.

Nikkei (45645.61, +1.58%) has risen sharply after the partnership with OpenAI was unveiled to provide memory chips for Stargate data centers. The index is now headed towards 46000, a break above which if seen can eventually take it towards 47000.

Shanghai (3882.78 +0.52%) is likely to trade within the 3800-3900 region. A break above 3900 if seen can take the index towards 4000. 

Crude prices have broken below key supports, with Brent slipping to $ 64 and likely heading towards $ 63-62, while WTI fell to $ 60.40 and could extend losses towards $ 59-58. Gold remains firm after hitting $ 3,923.30 and is poised to rise towards $ 3,950-4,000, whereas Silver reversed sharply from $ 48 to $ 45.71 and may dip to $ 45 before resuming its uptrend towards $ 47.50-48.50. Copper has gained strength above $ 4.90 and now targets $ 5.00-5.20, while Natural Gas has surged past expectations to $ 3.5850 and could extend higher towards $ 3.65-3.80.

Brent ($ 64.33) has broken below its immediate support and tested a low of $ 64 yesterday as OPEC+ moves to increase crude production levels, raising concerns of a global supply glut. It can decline further towards $ 63-62 in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.71) has also broken below its immediate support and fell sharply to a low of $ 60.40 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 59-58 is possible in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,876.70) rose to a high of $ 3,923.30 before dipping slightly. Our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 3,950-4,000 in the near term.

Silver ($ 46.75) tested a high of $ 48 yesterday as expected but fell sharply to a low of $ 45.71. It can dip further to test immediate support near $ 45 before resuming its rise towards $ 47.50-48.50.

Copper ($ 4.9585) did not fall as expected; instead, it has broken above $ 4.90 and now looks set to rise towards $ 5.00-5.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4310) has risen sharply beyond expected levels and tested a high of $ 3.5850 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 3.65-3.80 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
2.2 …Expectations 2.4 …Previous 2.3

GMT 12:30 18:00 US NFP
64 …Expectations 51 …Previous 22

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 6.13 …Previous 6.61 …Actual 1.83

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
0.3 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Unemp
6.1 …Expectations 6.2 …Previous 6.2 …Actual 6.3