[Daily Market Trend | 03 Oct 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,085, weaker than the prior cash close. Offshore tone is cautious as higher bond yields, firmer crude, and rupee pressure weigh on risk appetite.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 02 Oct were net sellers of ₹-2,980 crore.
DIIs on 02 Oct were net buyers of ₹+3,120 crore.
October month-to-date FII equity flows are at ₹−4,050 crore, reflecting sustained foreign selling, while DIIs continue to provide a domestic support buffer.
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Global drivers
USA
Dow Jones −0.26 % : slipped on higher Treasury yields pressuring cyclicals
Nasdaq −0.18 % : tech weighed down by rate sensitivity
S&P500 −0.21 % : broader market subdued as investors rotate to defensives
Asia
Nikkei −0.32 % : Japan under pressure as exporters feel yen volatility
Shanghai Composite +0.14 % : modest gains on local liquidity support
Kospi −0.09 % : South Korea flat to softer on chip weakness
Europe
FTSE −0.17 % : UK equities eased with energy drag
DAX −0.22 % : German market weighed by weak factory orders
CAC −0.15 % : French stocks tracked regional softness
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Events & newswatch
US nonfarm payrolls due later today, key for Fed policy direction.
OPEC+ monthly outlook expected, markets eye crude supply stance.
India auto sales data for September scheduled; critical for demand signals.
Eurozone CPI prints awaited, potential for ECB stance shift.
RBI financial stability review expected later in the month.
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Politics & Policy
India
• Finance Ministry reiterated infra push with fiscal deficit under watch.
• Political focus on upcoming state polls, market watching reform agenda continuity.
US
• Fed officials stressed “data dependency” on rate outlook in latest speeches.
• Budget gridlock in Congress remains unresolved, pressuring sentiment.
Global
• EU–China trade tensions resurface with tariff talks.
• Russia signaled adjustments in energy export quotas, affecting global supply.
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Treasuries & US/India central bank updates/news
US 10-year Treasury yield trades at 4.18%, maintaining pressure on risk assets.
Fed policy stance remains data-driven; all eyes on labor print.
RBI is likely to intervene if rupee volatility persists, with reserves intact to cushion shocks.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10-year G-Sec yield stands at 6.49%, edging higher on global cues but demand from local banks holds stability.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.9 – 89.0, rupee near record lows as dollar stays firm.
Import cost pressure is beginning to reflect in sentiment.
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Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude at $69.4 / bbl, supported by supply constraints and OPEC+ signals.
– Natural gas prices steady with seasonal demand expectations.
Base & precious metals
– Gold trades at $3,755 / oz, holding firm as safe-haven flows balance yield headwinds.
– Silver hovers near $45.1 / oz, supported by investor demand.
– Copper shows resilience on supply tightness, while aluminum drifts lower on weak global demand prints.
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Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.9 (+4.7% vs prior).
US VIX: 16.8 (+0.5%).
Nifty PCR at 0.81, showing limited bullish bets.
Implied volatilities higher, risk premium evident in derivatives positioning.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,070
R1 / R2 = 25,160 / 25,280
S1 / S2 = 24,970 / 24,880
Key watch: 24,970–24,880 as support and 25,160–25,280 as resistance.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,085, implying −54 pts (−0.21%) vs prior close; trend cautious.
Key triggers: US 10Y yield 4.18%, Brent crude $69.4, USD/INR at 88.9–89.0.