Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s next Prime Minister. Her victory signals a likely continuation of Japan’s expansionary fiscal and ultra-loose monetary policies. The Dollar Index rose slightly but remains within the 96-99 range for now. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while staying above 1.17, and EURINR may consolidate between 103.50-105.00. EURJPY tested 175 as expected, now facing resistance at 176. USDJPY advanced nearly 1.6% on election results; a break above 150 could push it to 152 or higher, otherwise consolidation between 146-150 is likely. USDCNY is closed for the week. The Aussie could test 0.670-0.675 before topping out, while the Pound needs to breach 1.35 for further gains soon. USDINR can test 89.00-89.25 while trading above 88.50.

Despite the Shutdown in US, Dollar Index (98.013) rose to the high of 98.14 on Yen weakness after Japan’s election. Still, a broad range of 99-96 can continue to hold in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1723) is stuck within 1.18-1.17 region. The pair can head towards 1.18-1.19 in the near term while the support near 1.17 holds.

EURINR (104.0409) continues to consolidate within 103.50-105.00, and a breakout on either side is needed for further direction; until then, the range may persist.

EURJPY (175.68) has risen sharply past our target of 175 to current levels, facing immediate resistance at 176. Price action needs to be monitored closely to see if 176 holds and pushes EURJPY lower or extends the rise to 178–180 in the medium term.

The win of Sanae Takaichi led Dollar-Yen (147.66) surged to 149.86, gaining nearly 1.6%, with resistance at 150. A break above 150 could push the pair to 152 and higher, else it may consolidate between 150 to 146 region.

USDCNY (7.1185) will remain closed till 08-Oct on the account of the Golden week holiday.

Aussie (0.6606) continues to remain stable above 0.66 for now. The target of 0.670-0.675 are kept open for now while the support at 0.655 holds.

Pound (1.3454) needs to breach 1.35 to bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Broadly a range of 1.33-1.36/37 can hold for some time.

USDINR (88.7070) remained ranged within 88.60-88.80 on Friday. Immediate support is seen near 88.50, and as long as this holds, the pair is expected to rise gradually towards 89.00-89.25 by mid-Oct’25.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well in the early Asian session today. While this sustains, a further rise is possible. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI dipped to test its support as expected. While the support holds, the yield can rise back again in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have risen back in the early Asian session today. That keeps alive the chances of testing 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). The yields have to breach these levels to extend the rise to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.26%) yields remain lower and stable. The downside is open to test 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) before a rise is seen.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5114%) fell further to test 6.5% as expected. While above 6.5%, a bounce back to 6.6% can be seen. Only a break below 6.5% will bring the yield under pressure for a fall to 6.45%-6.4%.

The Dow could head towards 47000 or higher while above support at 46500. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon.  The Nifty can test 25000 and if breaks higher can head towards 25500. The overall broad trade range of 24600-25500 can hold for the next couple of weeks. The Nikkei has risen sharply after Sanae Takaichi became the first female prime minister of the nation.  The index can rise further to 48000. Shanghai is closed till Wednesday, 8-Oct-25.

The Dow (46758.28, +0.51%) tested the immediate resistance at 47000 before slightly coming down. But the index has scope for a further rise towards 47000-48000 while above 46500.

DAX (24378.80, -0.18%) dipped on Friday but has fair chances of rising towards 24500/600 soon. Thereafter, it would be important to see if the index can break higher and move up eventually else could be vulnerable to fall back towards 24000 or lower. 

Nifty (24894.25, +0.23%) has been rising well but needs to break above immediate resistance at 25000 to test 25500 on the upside. The downside can be limited to 24600 keeping a broad trade range of 24600-25500 for the next couple of weeks. A breakout on either side of the range is needed for long term directional clarity.

Nikkei (47639.21, +4.09%) has surged after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party chose Sanae Takaichi as its new leader on Saturday, paving the way for her to become the nation’s first female prime minister. Nikkei can test 48000 in the near term. Thereafter, whether it breaks higher or retraces from there will have to be seen.

Shanghai (3882.78 +0.52%) is closed till 8th October, 2025.

Crude prices have bounced back slightly but remain vulnerable to further downside as long as they stay below $ 67 (Brent) and $ 63 (WTI) respectively, with chances of a fall towards $ 62-60 for Brent and $ 58-56 for WTI. Gold continues to move higher as expected, heading towards $ 3,950-4,000, while Silver faces resistance near $ 48.35/50 and may dip to $ 47.00-46.50 before rising towards $ 49.00-49.50. Copper stays firm with scope to test $ 5.15-5.20, whereas Natural gas has slipped below $ 3.40 and could fall further to $ 3.20-3.00 before rebounding.

Brent ($ 65.44) tested a low of $ 64.20 and has bounced back. However, while it remains below $ 67, there is scope for a break below $ 64 and a decline towards $ 62-60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 61.77) has bounced back after testing a low of $ 60.55 on Friday. While below $ 63, the possibility of a break below $ 60 and a fall towards $ 58-56 remains intact for now.

Gold ($ 3,926.60) is moving up in line with our expectations and can rise towards $ 3,950-4,000 in the near term.

Silver ($ 48) bounced back sharply to close at $ 47.97 on Friday. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 48.35/50; while this holds, a dip to $ 47.00-46.50 can be seen before a rise towards $ 49.00-49.50.

Copper ($ 5.0955) has risen in line with our expectations and can head higher towards $ 5.15-5.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3770) has reversed back below $ 3.40, contrary to our expectations, and can decline further towards $ 3.20-3.00 before a bounce back is seen.

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
63.0 …Previous 62.9

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.1 …Previous -0.5

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Composite PMI
50.1 …Previous51.0

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
2.2 …Expectations 2.4 …Previous 2.3 …Actual 2.6

GMT 12:30 18:00 US NFP
64 …Expectations 51 …Previous 22

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4