The Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 99. While the resistance holds, a range of 99-96 can continue to hold. The Euro can target 1.18/19 while staying above 1.16, and EURINR continues to consolidate between 103.50-105.00. EURJPY is oscillating near the resistance at 176. Need to see whether it extends the rise or not. USDJPY has risen past 150 and if sustained, can head towards 152-154. USDCNY is closed today. The Aussie could test 0.670-0.675 before topping out, while the Pound is stuck within 1.34-1.35 region. USDINR can test 89.00-89.10 before halting.

Dollar Index (98.013) tested 98.49 before cooling down. Still, the Index can trade within a broad range of 99-96 for some time while the resistance at 99 holds.

EURUSD (1.1723) tested the support coming around 1.1650 but later recovered as well. Overall, the targets of 1.18-1.19 can get tested while the pair trades above 1.16.

EURINR (103.8035) is holding well the 103.50-105.00 range which can persist in the near term.

EURJPY (176.04) is hovering near the resistance at 176. Price action needs to be monitored closely to see if 176 holds and pushes EURJPY lower or extends the rise to 178–180 in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (150.51) has risen above 150 and if sustained, could climb to 152–154 in the near term. Conversely, failing to sustain above 150 can drag it back to 150–147/146 region.

USDCNY (7.1185) will remain closed till 08-Oct on the account of the Golden week holiday.

Aussie (0.6615) continues to remain stable above 0.66 for now. The targets of 0.670-0.675 are kept open for now while the support at 0.655 hold.

Pound (1.3474) is stuck between 1.34-1.35 region since the last few sessions. The Pound needs to breach 1.35 to bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Broadly a range of 1.33-1.36/37 can hold for some time.

USDINR (88.6980) remained stable within 88.60-88.80 region for the day. For now, the view remains intact to see a rise towards 89.00-89.10 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias remains positive to see more rise in the coming days. The German Yields have bounced back but may not sustain. Some more fall is likely to be seen first before a sustained rise happens. The 10Yr GoI is bouncing back from its support. While this sustains, the yield can rise further in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields sustain higher. A rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is still alive. A break above these levels can see an extended rise to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). While above 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) the bias is positive.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.29%) yields have bounced back. But the downside remains open to see 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) first and then a sustained rise is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5186%) has bounced back. The support at 6.5% is holding well. That keeps intact our view of the yield rising back towards 6.6%.

The Dow could head towards 47000-48000 while above 46500. We may expect a rejection from either 47000 or 48000, both of which are resistances on the near- and long-term charts. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon. The Nifty rose above 25000, but the upper resistances at 25200 and 25400/500 remain intact, from where a rejection is possible. The Nikkei has surged above the resistance at 48000 and trades well above at a record high. The sky is the limit for Nikkei as there is no well-formed resistance above current levels on the near to medium term charts. Shanghai is closed.

The Dow (46694.97, -0.14%) tested 46846 before coming off to close slightly lower. The index can test the immediate resistance at 47000 in the next few sessions, from where a rejection is possible towards 46500-46000 in the medium term. Note that 47000-48000 is a crucial resistance zone in various time frames, suggesting a limited rise in the Dow in the coming weeks.

DAX (24378.29, -0.0021%) needs to break above 24500-24600 region to test 25000. Thereafter, a decisive break above 25000 is needed for a further bullish rally. Else, while below 25000-24600, there could be chances for the Dax to fall back towards 24000 or lower.

Nifty (25077.65, +0.74%) has been rising well from support near 24600 but could have resistances at 25200 and 25400/500, respectively, from where another rejection can be possible. We need a decisive break on either side of the 24600-25500 range for long-term directional clarity.

Nikkei (48371.71, +0.89%) has surged to all all-time high, trading well above the 48000 level. The index can rally towards 50000-52000. The sky is the limit as there is no well-formed resistance on the index above current levels.

Shanghai (3882.78 +0.52%) is closed till 8th October, 2025.

Crude prices remain weak as both Brent and WTI struggle below key resistances at $ 67 and $ 63, keeping the risk of a break lower towards $ 62-60 and $ 58-56 intact. Gold continues to hover near its all-time high, and a clear move above $ 4,000 is needed to confirm further upside towards $ 4,100-4,200, while failure to break could lead to a correction towards $ 3,800-3,700. Silver is likely to dip towards $ 47.00-46.50 before rebounding to $ 49-50, and Copper looks steady above $ 5.00 with scope to rise towards $ 5.15-5.20. Natural Gas, however, remains under pressure and could extend its fall towards $ 3.20-3.00 if it stays below $ 3.50.

Brent ($ 65.56) has risen slightly but faces resistance near $ 67. While this holds, there remains a possibility of a break below $ 64 and a decline towards $ 62-60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 61.76) has edged up slightly, but while it stays below $ 63, it remains vulnerable to a break below $ 60, with the downside towards $ 58-56 still intact for now.

Gold ($ 3,980.70) as expected, tested a new all-time high of $ 3,994.50 yesterday. Going forward, a decisive break above $ 4,000 is needed for it to extend its bullish momentum towards $ 4,100-4,200 or higher. If $ 4,000 holds, however, it can decline towards $ 3,800-3,700.

Silver ($ 48.23) is trading below its immediate resistance, and while this holds, we might see a dip to $ 47.00-46.50 in the near term before a possible rise to $ 49-50 takes place.

Copper ($ 5.0430) has fallen slightly, but while it remains above $ 5.00, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 5.15-5.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3760) remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 3.20-3.00 while it stays below $ 3.50.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -95.5 …Previous -78.3

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
61.6 …Expectations 61.6 …Previous 62.9 …Actual 60.9

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
0.1 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.4 …Actual 0.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Composite PMI
50.1 …Expectations 51.2 …Previous51.0 …Actual 51.2

Note: U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. Data releases are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation.