The Dollar Index is headed to the support coming at 98. The target of 100-101 are kept alive while the Index trades above 98. EURUSD is headed towards the resistance coming at 1.17 which can be tested soon. EURINR has a scope to bounce back towards 102.50-103.00 before eventually coming down. EURJPY can target 178 or even 180 while it trades above 175-174. USDJPY can soon test the support coming at 150 before attempting to bounce back again. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660. The Pound has risen past 1.34 and if sustained, can rise towards 1.35-1.36 levels. USDINR fell sharply to 87.91 yesterday and is trading below 87.75 in the offshore NDF market. If the decline continues, it may test the 87.50-87.25 levels as well.

Dollar Index (98.467) extended its fall to 98.41 amid renewed US-China trade tensions over new tariffs. Immediate support lies at 98, and while it holds, a rebound remains possible. Only a breach below 98 could lead to 97 or lower; otherwise, the 100–101 targets stay valid.

EURUSD (1.1671) is nearing the resistance coming at 1.17 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a pullback towards 1.15-1.14 looks likely and a break below 1.16 will confirm it.

EURINR (102.3241) has immediate support just below current levels. If that holds, a rise toward 102.50–103.00 is likely before a pullback occurs later.

EURJPY (175.85) has a scope to bounce back towards 178 or even 180, as long as it stays above the supports coming between 175-174 levels.

Dollar-Yen (150.72) is nearing the support coming at 150 which can be tested soon. Overall, the targets of 153-154 are kept open while the level of 150 holds.

USDCNY (7.1233) is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range of 7.14-7.12 and a broader range of 7.15-7.12 for some time.

Aussie (0.6490) is likely to trade within the 0.645-0.660 range for a while before a breakout occurs.

Pound (1.3431) has risen past 1.34, defying earlier expectations of a drop toward 1.32. If the rise holds above 1.34, it could extend further to 1.35–1.36 in the coming days.

USDINR (88.6710) Yesterday fell sharply to a low of 87.91 due to potential heavy RBI selling. In the offshore NDF market, it is trading below the key support of 87.75. If the pair opens below 87.75 in the onshore market, it may fall further to 87.50-87.25. Earlier expectations of a rise to 89.00-89.25 are now fully ruled out based on the sharp fall observed yesterday.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. While they sustain below their resistance, more fall is possible. The German Yields have declined below their support. That negates our view of seeing a bounce back from the support. The view now turns negative, and the yields can fall further. The 10Yr GoI has broken its support. It can fall further in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.02%) and 30Yr (4.62%) Treasury yields remain lower but stable. We reiterate that a fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.55%-4.5% (30Yr) can be seen from here. Any bounce can be capped at 4.1%-4.15% (10Yr and 4.7%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.57%) and 30Yr (3.14%) yields have declined sharply. The support at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) are broken contrary to our expectation. So, the rise back to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) stands negated now. A further fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) can be seen.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4799%) has declined below 6.5%. A fall to 6.45%-6.4% can be seen now.

The Dow looks stable but can test 46500-47000 while the Dax can head towards 25000 while above 24000. Nifty has risen yesterday and can test 25500. Thereafter a rise past 25500 or a decline will pave way for next course of direction. Nikkei could test 49000 if the current rise sustains. Shanghai trades around 3900. A immediate trade range of 3750-4000 looks likely.

The Dow (46253.31, +0.037%) has almost been stable. A test of 47000 can be seen while above 46000.

DAX (24181.37, -0.23%) has dipped slightly. An overall trade range of 23600-24500 can be seen in the near term.

Nifty (25323.55, +0.71%) moved up well yesterday. A test of 25500 can be possible with the current momentum but thereafter unless a decisive upside breakout is seen, it would be difficult to see fresh bullishness. Watch price action near 25500.

Nikkei (48030.28, +0.75%) has risen back again above 48000. Sustained rise from here and an eventual break above 49000 will take it higher towards 50000-52000 in the medium term. Failure to rise past 49000 can bring the index back towards 47000-46000.

Shanghai (3900.68, -0.29%) could trade in the 4000-3800/3750 region for the near term with 4000 being crucial resistance. A decisive break above 4000, if seen would assure fresh bullishness in the medium term. Else the index can eventually decline after seeing some sessions of ranged movement with the mentioned levels.

Crude prices remain weak, with Brent targeting $ 61-60 and WTI likely falling towards $ 57-56. Gold has broken past $ 4200 to hit a new all-time high near $ 4236, opening room for a further rise to $ 4300-4350. Silver remains firm with potential to test $ 53.00-53.50. Copper is consolidating within $ 4.9-5.2, awaiting a breakout. Natural gas has fallen to $ 2.9640 and may rebound towards $ 3.1-3.2 if $ 2.9 holds; otherwise, it can drop to $ 2.8/2.7.

Brent ($ 62.41) has fallen as expected and, while below $ 64/65, it can decline further towards $ 61-60 in the near term.

WTI ($ 58.73) has dipped slightly and, while below $ 60/61, it can fall further towards $ 57-56 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4246.70) has surged above the $ 4200 mark and tested a fresh all-time high of $ 4235.80 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 4300-4350 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 52.62) has, as expected, tested a high of $ 52.64 yesterday and can move higher towards $ 53.00-53.50 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.9960) remains range-bound between $ 4.9-5.2 for now, waiting for a breakout on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0370) fell to a low of $ 2.9640 as expected and can decline further to test its immediate support near $ 2.9. If this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.1-3.2 is possible; otherwise, a break below could drag it further down towards $ 2.8/2.7.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln)
…Expectations -22.0 …Previous -22.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI
0.0 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous -0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous -0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
1.1 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.6

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations 9.1 …Previous 23.2

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous -0.4 …Actual -0.3

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.3 …Previous -2.9 …Actual -2.3

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.9 …Expectations -1.8 …Previous 0.3 …Actual -1.2

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
-32.2 …Previous -26.5 …Actual -32.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Previous 0.4 …Actual

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Previous 0.3