The Dollar Index and Euro are headed toward the crucial levels coming at 99.50 and 1.1550 respectively. On a break below 101.50 EURINR can get dragged towards 101-100. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 178-180 & 153-154 in the near term. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.14. The Aussie is holding the 0.655-0.645 range quite well for now. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR remained closed yesterday.

Dollar Index (99.04) has risen well in the last few sessions but still a breach above 99.50 will be needed to bring 101 into picture. Immediate support is coming around 98.50 which can limit the downside for now.

EURUSD (1.1597) is nearing the support coming at 1.1550 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, failing to see an immediate bounce back can make it vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.15-1.14 in the near term. Watch price action closely.

EURINR (101.8291) has been coming off since the last few sessions and any break below 101.50 if seen can open the doors for 101-100. Immediate upside looks capped at 102.50-103.00.

EURJPY (176.74) is moving as anticipated and can extend the rise towards 178-180, as long as it stays above the supports coming between 176-174 levels.

Dollar-Yen (152.41) has surged well in the last couple of sessions over the growing speculation that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will unveil a large-scale stimulus package. While the ongoing rise sustains, a further test to 153-154 looks likely to happen in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1231) is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range of 7.12-7.14 and a broader range of 7.12-7.15 for some time.

Aussie (0.6483) remained stable within 0.655-0.645 region. A decisive break on the either side of its range will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3336) remains in a downtrend, with immediate support at 1.3300–1.3270. Whether this zone holds will determine if the Pound consolidates within the 1.33–1.35 range or extends its decline toward 1.31.

USDINR (87.8040) remained closed yesterday on the account of Diwali. While the USINR sustains above 87.70, it can attempt to rise past 88 again. Only a sustained break below 87.70 would turn the outlook bearish, targeting 87.50 or even 87.00.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. There is room to fall more to test their key supports. Thereafter the yields can rise back again. The German yields are coming down again failing to sustain the bounce seen earlier in the week. They can fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range. The immediate outlook is unclear. We will have to wait for the range breakout.

The US 10Yr (3.95%) and 30Yr (4.54%) Treasury yields remain lower. They can test 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) on the downside and then rise back again.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and 30Yr (3.17%) yields are coming down failing to sustain the bounce seen earlier in the week. A test of 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) is likely now. The price action thereafter will need a watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5040%) is stuck between 6.45% and 6.55%. We need to wait for a breakout of this range. That will determine whether the yield can rise to 6.6% or fall to 6.4%.

The Dow fell sharply yesterday and can test 46000 before rising again towards 47000. Dax has also dipped and needs to sustain above 24000-24500 to move up towards 2500-25200. Else the index can fall to 23500-23000. Nifty has dipped after a decent rise in the past few sessions. Some chances of a rise to 26000 is there but we remain cautious because a decline if seen from here can turn bearish towards 25500 or lower. Nikkei can test 48000-47000 while below 50000. Thereafter a bounce from 470000 can take it back towards 50000. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound between 4000-3800.

The Dow (46590.41, -0.71%) dipped sharply yesterday and could test 46000 initially before bouncing back to higher levels of 47000 in the medium to long term.

DAX (24151.13, -0.74%) needs to hold above 24000 and gradually break above 24500 to move higher towards 25000-25200. Else Dax can decline back towards 23500-23000 region.

Nifty (25868.60, +0.098%) will resume trading after 2-days of Diwali holidays. The index has risen well above 25500 and trades higher just now. Although the view is bullish from here towards 26000, we remain cautious as any decline from here can drag it back to 25600/500 or lower.

Nikkei (48677.31 -1.28%) rose sharply to test 49946 but declined back as the index could not break higher. While below 50000, there can be chances of a decline to 48000-47000 in the coming days. A decisive break above 50000 is needed for the index to pick up further upward momentum and target 52000.

Shanghai (3905.84, -0.20%) has risen over the past 3-sessions this week but needs a decisive breakout above 3950-4000 to indicate fresh bullishness for the medium term. Else while below 4000, the index could continue to trade within the 3800-4000 region.

Brent rebounded from $ 60.07 but faces resistance at $ 64, with scope to dip towards $ 62-60 unless it breaks higher. WTI shows similar resistance at $ 60, which if breached could rise towards $ 62-64. Gold fell sharply from $ 4400 to $ 4021 but may rebound towards $ 4150-4200 while above $ 4000. Silver plunged from $ 53.77 to $ 46.82 and could bounce towards $ 48-49 while holding above $ 46.50. Copper remains range-bound between $ 4.9-5.2. Natural Gas faces resistance near $ 3.6, with support at $ 3.2-3.0 unless a breakout lifts it towards $ 3.8-4.2.

Brent ($ 64.09) tested a low of $ 60.07 on Friday as expected and has bounced back sharply after India’s Mint newspaper reported that the US and India are close to a trade deal that could see India gradually reduce its imports of Russian crude, potentially boosting oil demand from other suppliers. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 64, and while this holds, prices can fall back towards $ 62-60 in the near term. Alternatively, a break above $ 64 could push it higher towards $ 66-68.

WTI ($ 59.86) tested a low of $ 55.96 on Monday and has been rising steadily since then. Immediate resistance is near $ 60, and if this holds, we may see a reversal towards $ 58-56 in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break above $ 60 could lift it higher towards $ 62-64.

Gold ($ 4089.90) as expected, tested $ 4400 on Monday and plunged sharply to a low of $ 4021.20 yesterday. For now, it is holding above $ 4000, and while above this, it can rebound towards $ 4150-4200 in the near term. On the other hand, a break below $ 4000 could open the door for a deeper fall towards $ 3800-3600. For now, we expect $ 4000 to hold, let’s see how it plays out.

Silver ($ 47.89) as mentioned on Friday, tested exactly $ 53.77 and reversed sharply to $ 49.66 on the same day before dropping to a low of $ 46.82 yesterday. Immediate support is near $ 46.50, and while this holds, a bounce back towards $ 48-49 looks possible in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 46.50 can drag prices lower towards $ 44-42.

Copper ($ 5.0150) remains range-bound between $ 4.9-5.2 for now, awaiting a breakout on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4430) has exceeded expectations, bouncing sharply to test a high of $ 3.5720 yesterday. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 3.60, and if this holds, the price could decline towards $ 3.2-3.0. However, if the momentum continues and it breaks above $ 3.6, a fresh rally towards $ 3.8-4.2 could unfold.

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3994 …Expectations 4060 …Previous 4000

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
3.7 …Expectations 4.0 …Previous 3.7 …Actual 3.8