The Dollar Index needs to breach 99.50 to head towards 100-101 levels. Else, the pullback towards 98-97 looks likely. Euro is currently holding well the support near 1.1570-1.1550 region. Whether the pair will trade within 1.1550-1.1700 region or will it extend the fall to 1.15/14 region will have to be seen. On a break below 101.50 EURINR can get dragged towards 101-100. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 178-180 & 153-154 in the near term. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.14. The Aussie continues to stay within 0.655-0.645 range for now. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR is trading near 87.70 on the NDF and if the spot opens below 87.75 in the onshore then USDINR can get dragged towards 87.50 or even 87.00 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (99.01) needs to see a rise past 99.50 to open the doors for 100-101 levels. Else, if the resistance near 99.50 holds, a pullback towards 98-97 can be witnessed.

EURUSD (1.1610) is holding well above the support coming around 1.1570-1.550. It remains uncertain at the moment as to whether the pair will consolidate within 1.1550-1.1700 region or whether it will extend the fall to 1.15-1.14 in the near term. Wait and watch for now.

EURINR (101.8291) has been coming off since the last few sessions and any break below 101.50 if seen can open the doors for 101-100. Immediate upside looks capped at 102.50-103.00.

EURJPY (177.50) & Dollar-Yen (152.89) have moved up further and can soon test our mentioned targets of 178-179 & 153-154 respectively in the near term before halting.

USDCNY (7.1232) continues consolidating within a narrow range of 7.12-7.14 and a broader range of 7.12-7.15 for some time.

Aussie (0.6506) is holding the 0.645-0.655 range quite well for now. A decisive break on the either side of its range will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3322) is nearing the immediate support coming around 1.3300–1.3270. Whether this zone holds will determine if the Pound consolidates within the 1.33–1.35 range or extends its decline toward 1.31.

USDINR (87.7030) is trading below the support level of 87.75 on the NDF. If the onshore market opens and stays below this level, the USDINR pair may fall further to 87.50 or even 87.00 in the coming weeks. A sustained rise above 87.75 is needed to reverse this trend and push it toward 88.15-88.25.

The US Treasury yields have bounced well. Some more rise is possible before the yields resume the fall. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall more to test their support. The 10Yr GoI has risen well but well within its range. A range breakout is needed to get clarity on the next direction of move.

The US 10Yr (4%) and 30Yr (4.58%) Treasury yields have bounced. A near-term rise to 4.05%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) is possible before the expected fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) happens.

The German 10Yr (2.58%) and 30Yr (3.17%) yields remain lower and stable. The yields can fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr). Thereafter it will have to be seen if a reversal is happening or not.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5364%) has risen well within the 6.45% and 6.55% range. A breakout on either side of this range will decide whether the yield can rise to 6.6% or fall to 6.4%.

The Dow, Dax and other Asia-Pac indices have risen after a long awaited announcement of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping next Thursday in Asia. The Dow is headed towards 47000 while the Dax can rise towards 24500-25000. Nifty is inching higher towards 26000. Thereafter whether the index would face rejection or break higher will have to be seen. Nikkei can test 50000. Thereafter a break past 50000, if seen can open up doors for 52000. Shanghai is headed towards 4000, a break past which if seen can take it towards 4200 eventually.

The Dow (46734.61, +0.31%) rose sharply after Trump announced to meet Xi Jinping next Thursday. This meeting was long awaited and markets may expect a possible de-escalation of trade tariffs that has been flared during the year. Dow is headed towards 47000, a sustained break above which can take it higher towards 47500-48000 eventually.

DAX (24207.79, +0.23%) has risen within the near term range of 23600-24500/25000. Unless a decisive break on either side of the range is seen, medium term direction remains unclear.

Nifty (25888.90, +0.078%) is slowly inching up towards 26000. Thereafter, a sustained break above 26000 is needed for further bullishness towards 27000-28000; else the index can fall back towards 25500-25000 ok a rejection if seen from 26000.

Nikkei (49185.80, +1.12%) has risen sharply and is headed towards 50000 where the index needs to break higher for continued uptrend towards 52000. Else a rejection from 50000 can bring it down towards 48000.

Shanghai (3943.66, +0.54%) has also risen today and is headed towards 4000. A break past 4000, if seen can open further chances for a rise towards 4200.

Crude prices surged after new US-EU sanctions on Russian energy, with Brent rising to $ 66.36 and WTI to $ 62.20, both eyeing further gains towards $ 68 and $ 64 respectively. Gold and Silver rebounded strongly, targeting $ 4200-4250 and $ 49-50 as long as supports at $ 4000 and $ 46.50 hold. Copper touched $ 5.1185, facing resistance near $ 5.15, with potential for a breakout towards $ 5.25-5.30. Natural Gas fell to $ 3.29 after a higher storage build, with chances of extending the decline to $ 3.20-3.00.

Brent ($ 65.53) has surged above $ 64 and tested a high of $ 66.36 yesterday after the US and EU ramped up sanctions on Russian energy and infrastructure, raising the risk of major disruptions to Russian crude production and exports, potentially removing oil supplies from the global market. A further rise towards $ 68 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 61.32) has climbed above $ 60 and surged to a high of $ 62.20 yesterday. It can now rise towards our previously mentioned level of $ 64 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4133.10) has bounced back as expected, and while it holds above $ 4000, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 4200-4250 in the near term.

Silver ($ 48.20) has bounced back in line with expectations. As long as it stays above $ 46.50, it can move higher towards $ 49-50.

Copper ($ 5.0980) has risen sharply to a high of $ 5.1185 yesterday. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 5.12/15; while this holds, a pullback towards the downside support at $ 5.00 is possible. There is little room left for sideways movement, and a breakout on either side is needed for directional clarity. Our preferred view is a break above $ 5.15 and a rise towards $ 5.25-5.30, but we’ll have to wait and watch.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2750) has reversed sharply as expected and tested a low of $ 3.29 yesterday following a larger-than-expected build in weekly gas storage by EIA. A further decline towards $ 3.20-3.00 looks likely in the coming sessions.

GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-22 …Expectations -20 …Previous -19

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.6 …Expectations 2.9 …Previous 2.7

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
789 …Previous 800

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3994 …Expectations 4060 …Previous 4000 …Actual