The Dollar Index is trading near 98.60 and failing to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall to 98-97 as well. Euro & EURINR have risen past 1.1650 & 102.40 but face another resistance at 1.17 & 103 respectively. Need to see whether the resistance hold or extend the rise in both the pairs. EURJPY & USDJPY have slightly inched lower but the targets of 179 & 154 are kept alive for now. USDCNY is coming off and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie has risen past 0.655 and if sustained, can extend the gains towards 0.660-0.665 as well. The Pound has bounced a bit but a break past 1.34 will be needed to extend the rise towards 1.35 as well. USDINR is trading near 88.14 on the NDF, and unless an immediate break below 88 occurs, a sustained move above 88.30 if seen could make it vulnerable to testing 88.50.

Dollar Index (98.695) is trading just above the support near the 98.60 region. A rebound from this level, followed by a break above 99.50, will be needed to open the path toward 100–101. Else, failure to sustain above 98.60 may extend the fall toward 98.00–97.00.

EURUSD (1.1657) has moved slightly above 1.1650, and if the level holds, it could advance toward interim resistance at 1.17. Thereafter, it remains uncertain whether the pair will subsequently decline toward 1.16 or extend gains to 1.18. Overall, broad consolidation within the 1.1550–1.17/1.1800 zone is likely for the near term.

EURINR (102.7976) has moved above 102.40, contrary to expectations of a drop toward 101.50. Now the cross requires a break above 103 to extend gains toward 104; otherwise, if resistance at 103 holds, a pullback toward 102 is likely.

EURJPY (177.94) & Dollar-Yen (152.96) have eased slightly from 178.23 and 153.24, but as long as they remain above 177 and 152.00–151.50, they may attempt to reach the targets of 179 and 154 respectively before pausing.

USDCNY (7.1009) fall has extended further; a break below 7.10 could push the pair down to the deeper support at 7.075 before any recovery. Only an immediate rebound from current levels may allow consolidation within the broader 7.10–7.15 range for now. Watch price action closely around current levels

Aussie (0.6562) has moved above 0.655, and as long as the rise sustains, can get extended toward 0.660–0.665 in the near term. Immediate downside can be limited to 0.645.

Pound (1.3354) observed the low of 1.3310 and later rebounded as well. A breach past 1.34 will be needed to bring 1.35 into picture. For now the downside can be capped 1.330-1.325.

USDINR (88.1440) rose sharply to 88.3025 yesterday. If it does not break below 88 soon, then a sustained move past 88.30 could push it higher toward 88.50, potentially delaying the downside target of 87.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall. Any rise will be capped by the near-term resistances. The German yields have dipped. Failure to rise back immediately can keep alive the chances of the fall that we have been expecting towards their support. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is hovering near the upper end of its range. Need to see if it is breaking out of the range to move higher.

The US 10Yr (3.98%) and 30Yr (4.55%) Treasury yields come down again. We retain our view of seeing a fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr). Thereafter the yields can reverse higher again. Any intermediate rise before the fall will be capped at 4.05%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and 30Yr (3.19%) yields remain higher but stable. Failure to bounce back immediately will keep alive the chances of seeing 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) on the downside first. Thereafter the rise to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) can happen.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5464%) sustains higher near the upper end of the 6.45%-6.55% range. A decisive break above 6.55% is needed to take the yield up to 6.6%. Else the yield can come down and retain the range.

The Dow and Dax have moved up today. The Dow can rise towards 47600-48000 while the Dax can face rejection from 25000-25200 region. Nifty has risen yesterday and needs a decisive break past 26000 to head towards 27000. Nikkei can test 52000 while above 50000. Shanghai is trading near the crucial resistance at 4000, a sustained break past which is needed to rally towards 4200 eventually.

The Dow (47544.59 +0.71%) has continued to move up and a break past 47600 can take it higher towards 47600-48000 soon.

DAX (24308.78 +0.28%) has also risen but could face resistance near 25000-25200 region. Till then the index may continue to rise.

Nifty (25966.05, +0.66%) rose decently yesterday. A break past 26000 if seen and sustained can take it gradually towards 27000.

Nikkei (50369.30, -0.28%) has dipped slightly. A slow rise towards 52000 can be expected in the next couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3990, -0.17%) trades near the crucial level of 4000. A break past 4000, if seen and sustained, can open further chances for a rise towards 4200. Else, a decline from here can take it back to 3800-3750 region.

Crude prices have fallen as expected amid concerns of a global crude surplus, heading towards $ 65-64 (Brent) and $ 60-59 (WTI) respectively. Gold plunged to $ 3985.90 but holds above $ 4000, keeping chances of a rise to $ 4100-4200 alive. Silver broke below $ 47 and looks weaker towards $ 45-44. Copper stays firm above $ 5.10 with scope to rise to $ 5.30-5.35, while Natural Gas surged on cooler US weather forecasts but faces resistance near $ 4.00, with possible swings between $ 4.40-$ 3.60.

Brent ($ 65.71) has reversed in line with our expectations amid ongoing concerns of a crude oil surplus. It can decline further towards $ 65-64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 61.33) has dipped as expected and can fall towards $ 60-59 in the near term while below $ 63.

Gold ($ 4024.40) plunged to a low of $ 3985.90 yesterday but needs a sustained break below $ 4000 to fall further towards $ 3800-3700. However, while above $ 4000, there remains a possibility of a rise towards $ 4100-4200 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 47.07) initially broke below support at $ 47 and fell sharply to test a low of $ 46.06 before closing slightly higher at $ 46.77 yesterday. A sustained break below $ 47 can drag the price down to $ 45-44 in the coming weeks, which looks more likely than a bounce back to $ 49-50 for now.

Copper ($ 5.1735) has fallen back below $ 5.20. While above $ 5.10, we retain our view of a possible rise towards $ 5.30-5.35 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9510) contrary to expectations, surged yesterday, opening with a gap up at $ 4.00 and testing a high of $ 4.10 as US weather forecasts turned cooler, before closing lower at $ 3.99. A sustained break above $ 4.00 can take it further up towards $ 4.20-4.40, else it can revert back to $ 3.80-3.60 on the downside.

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
…Expectations 5.0 …Previous 4.0

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
1.6 …Expectations 1.9 …Previous 1.8

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
96.7 …Expectations 93.9 …Previous 94.2

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.6 …Expectations 87.8 …Previous 87.7 …Actual 88.4

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
84.8 …Expectations 85.5 …Previous 85.7 …Actual 85.3

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
89.4 …Previous 89.7 …Actual 91.6

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
1.7 …Previous 2.9 …Actual