The tentative tariffs truce between US-China & BOJ’s dovish stance supported the strength in Dollar. The Dollar Index can now rise towards 100-101 on a sustained move above 99.50. While Euro remains vulnerable to fall towards 1.15-1.14 while it trades below 1.1650. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have risen as anticipated and now whether the resistance near 179-180 & 154.50 hold or not will have to be seen. USDCNY has rebounded from 7.0961 and if sustained, can test the resistance near 7.12-7.125 region. The Aussie can test the support near 0.6520 or even 0.645 if the fall extends further. The Pound needs to bounce from the support near 1.3140. Else, a breach below 1.3140 can drag it towards 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR had risen above 88.50 and it can test the resistance near 88.85 region before a pullback towards 88 occurs thereafter.

Dollar Index (99.46) extended gains to 99.72 following hawkish FED comments and a tentative US-China tariff truce, averting a threatened 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting 01-Nov. A sustained move above 99.50 is now needed to target the upper resistance at 101 in the coming weeks, with immediate support at 99.

EURUSD (1.1573) slipped sharply to a low of 1.1546 due to Dollar strength. The EURUSD is currently attempting to rebound, but as long as it remains below 1.160–1.1650, it remains vulnerable to fall toward 1.15–1.14 in the near term.

EURINR (102.5693) is holding the 103-102 range quite well for now.

BOJ’s dovish stance with steady rates and the Finance Minister stepping back from earlier market-supportive comments amplified yen weakness yesterday. EURJPY (178.02) & Dollar-Yen (153.87) tested the high of 178.82 & 154.44 before cooling down. Now, whether the resistance at 179-180 in EURJPY & 144.50 in USDJPY holds and push them lower or extends the rise further will have to be seen. Watch price action closely near the mentioned levels.

USDCNY (7.0955) moved up from the low of 7.0961 itself, contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 7.075. While the rise sustains, the ongoing rise can test the resistance coming near 7.120-7.125 soon. Thereafter, whether the resistance holds or the USDCNY continues to move further will have to be seen.

Aussie (0.6548) started declining from 0.6597. Interim support is around the 0.6520 level, with deeper support near 0.6450, which could be tested if the fall continues. Overall, the target of 0.665 remains valid while the Aussie stays above 0.645.

Pound (1.3152) is currently holding well above 1.3140. While it holds, a bounce back toward 1.33 can happen. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.3140 if seen would turn the outlook bearish, thereby targeting 1.28 in the medium term.

USDINR (88.5880) rose above the 88.00–88.50 range to a high of 88.7425 before closing slightly lower at 88.6950. It may rise further to test immediate resistance near 88.85. If resistance holds, a pullback toward 88.25–88.00 could follow in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. A break above their immediate resistance can take them higher straight away. Else, one more leg of fall is possible before a bullish reversal happens. The German Yields have inched up. They have limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag them lower again. The 10Yr GoI has made a bullish breakout of its range. That turns the outlook bullish to see more rise from here.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and 30Yr (4.65%) Treasury yields have inched up further. A strong rise above 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) will take them up to 4.2%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr). Else there can be one more leg of fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) before a reversal is seen.

The German 10Yr (2.64%) and 30Yr (3.20%) yields have inched up. Resistance at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) can be tested. The yields can then reverse lower again to see 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5730%) has made a bullish breakout of its range. While above 6.55%, a rise to 6.6% can be seen.

Most major indices except Nikkei have dipped and could test respective support levels before rebounding. The Dow, Dax, Nifty and Shanghai could test 47000-46500, 24000, 25800/25600 and 3900 before a possible rebound is seen. While the Nikkei has resumed it’s upward rally and could soon surpass 52000 to target a fresh high of 54000 in the medium term.

The Dow (47522.12, -0.23%) could have scope to test 47000-46500 from where a bounce back towards 48000 and higher can be possible in the medium term.

DAX (24118.89, -0.022%) is headed towards 24000 from where a rebound looks possible in the medium term.

Nifty (25877.85, -0.68%) has declined and could test crucial support at 25800. Failure to bounce back from 25800 could drag it to lower support at 25600.

Nikkei (51894.26, +1.11%) has resumed it’s upward rally and could soon surpass 520000 to target higher levels of 54000 in the medium term.

Shanghai (3970.65, -0.41%) has dipped as expected and could have room to test 3950-3900 before moving up again to 4000 or higher. A decisive break below 3900, if seen would bring in lower levels of 3850-3800 into the picture.

Brent and WTI remain weak below $ 66 and $ 62 respectively, with scope for further declines towards $ 63 and $ 59. Gold and Silver, despite minor rebounds, stay vulnerable below $ 4100 and $ 50, suggesting potential drops towards $ 3850-3800 and $ 46-44. Copper continues to trade within a tight $ 5.20-5.00 range after failing to sustain gains above $ 5.20, while Natural Gas has turned bullish, rising sharply on colder US weather forecasts and could extend higher towards $ 4.15-4.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.08) faces immediate resistance near $ 66, and while below this level, our outlook remains bearish towards $ 63 in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.28) is likely to decline towards $ 59 as long as it stays below $ 62.

Gold ($ 4032.0) has bounced back above $ 4000, but while below $ 4100, the near-term view remains weak for a fall towards $ 3850-3800.

Silver ($ 48.87) has recovered slightly, but while it stays below $ 50, we maintain our view of a decline towards $ 46-44 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.1080) failed to break above $ 5.20 and fell sharply to a low of $ 5.04 yesterday. While below $ 5.20, a range of $ 5.20-5.00 could hold for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 4.0650) contrary to our expectation, has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 4.0710 yesterday as colder US weather forecasts boosted heating demand. A further rise towards $ 4.15-4.20 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
2.5 …Expectations 2.5 …Previous 2.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.1 …Previous 2.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.4 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.4 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.50 …Previous 0.50 …Actual 0.50

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash GDP
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Unemp
6.5 …Expectations 6.3 …Previous 6.3 …Actual 6.3

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
94.5 …Expectations 95.7 …Previous 95.7 …Actual 96.8

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
…Expectations 3.0 …Previous 3.8 …Actual

{GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual 2.15