The Dollar Index had slightly inched lower but the target of 101 remains intact while the support at 99.50 holds. Euro & EURINR looks bearish toward 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise toward 178-180 & 154-155 if both the pair stays above 176 & 153 respectively. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading lower within its 0.660-0.645 range. The Pound has risen well but the target of 1.28 is kept open for now as long as the pair trades below the resistance at 1.3150. USDINR can hold the 88.50-88.85 range in the near term.

Dollar Index (99.774) has slightly inched lower from the 100.10. Still, a rebound towards 101 can happen in the near term while the support near 99.50 holds.

EURUSD (1.1539) and EURINR (102.751) have moved higher but our view remains intact to see a fall toward 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 while both the pair trades below 1.16 & 102.50 respectively.

EURJPY (176.64) can attempt to rise back towards 178-180 while the pair remains above 176.

Dollar-Yen (153.07) needs to sustain above 153 to head towards 154-155 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.1199) is trading lower within its 7.15-7.10 range which is likely to persist for some time before a breakout occurs.

Aussie (0.6512) rose to a high of 0.6518 but failed to sustain and has started declining. A confirmed break below 0.645 could open the way for 0.640–0.635 in the near term. It is important to watch price action around current levels to determine if the 0.66–0.645 range will hold or not.

Pound (1.3125) surged sharply to the level of 1.3142 after the BOE kept rates unchanged at 4% but signaled openness to potential easing. Immediate resistance is at 1.3150, and a break above this level is needed to target 1.3250–1.3300. Else, if resistance holds, a medium-term pullback toward 1.28 still remains into play.

USDINR (88.6320) can trade within a narrow range of 88.50–88.85 for a few sessions before a breakout. Overall, the upside can be capped at 89. A break below 88.50 will be needed to pull the USDINR lower to 88.25-88.00.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. But supports are there while above which the rise that we are expecting can still happen. The German Yields have dipped slightly. They have limited upside from here and are likely to fall eventually. The 10Yr GoI dipped as expected and then bounced back. It has to sustain above its support in order to move higher and avoid more fall.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and 30Yr (4.68%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. But while above 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr), the view of seeing a rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) will still remain intact. A fall below the above-mentioned levels will only drag the yields much lower.

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and 30Yr (3.24%) yields have dipped slightly. There is limited room on the upside. 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) can be the cap. The yields are likely to fall back eventually towards 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5150%) dipped to 6.4984% and then bounced back. It has to sustain above 6.48% in order to rise back to 6.55% and higher. Else a fall to 6.45% and even lower is a possibility.

The Dow and Dax have declined and have room to test 46500 and 23000 in the near term before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is also falling as expected and can test support near 25400 before rebouding. Failure to bounce back from 25400 can lead to further decline towards 25000 or lower. Nikkei dipped to 49073 yesterday but has managed to rise back today. View is bullish above 48000. Shanghai has broken above 4000 and looks bullish towards 4500-4100.

The Dow (46912.30, -0.84%) has declined. There is room for a test of 46500 before pausing for a bounce back towards 47500-4800 eventually.

DAX (23734.02, -1.31%) has fallen below 24000 and has scope to test 23500-23000 before pausing for a rebound.

Nifty (25509.70, +0.64%) has fallen as expected and is headed towards support at 25400 from where a bounce looks possible. Failure to bounce from 25400 shall extend the ongoing decline towards the 25000-24600 region. Watch price action near 25400.

Nikkei (49983.61, +1.77%) tested 49073 yesterday as the AI related stocks declined. Today the stock has managed to bounce well moving back towards 50000. While above 48000, the view is to see gradual rise towards 52000-54000 in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (4006.76, +0.97%) has broken above 4000 and looks positive as the new government focuses on using domestically produced AI chips, in a move to increase tech self-reliance and reduce dependency on foreign technology. While above 4000, Shanghai can continue to move up towards 4050-4100 in the near term.

Crude prices stay under pressure with Brent slipping to $ 62.84 and WTI touching $ 58.83, both still vulnerable to $ 62 and $ 58 in the near term as softer demand weighs on sentiment. Gold continues to drift inside its $ 3900-4100 band, while Silver is trying to clear $ 48 for a possible push towards $ 50-52. Copper has bounced towards $ 5.10-5.20 within its broader $ 5.20-4.90 range, and Natural gas is firm after hitting $ 4.42, with room to stretch towards $ 4.50-4.60.

Brent ($ 63.58) dipped to a low of $ 62.84 yesterday. Demand concerns are pulling prices down after Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude grade to Asia for next month to the lowest level in eleven months. A further slide towards $ 62 looks likely in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 59.68) fell to a low of $ 58.83 yesterday and can extend the decline towards $ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4008.90) continues to move within a broad $ 3900-4100 range until a breakout on either side sets the next direction.

Silver ($ 48.18) is trying to push past $ 48, and a sustained break above this level can lift it towards $ 50-52 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.9815) has bounced back as expected and can rise further towards $ 5.10-5.20 in the near term, keeping a broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for a couple of weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 4.3970) surged to a high of $ 4.42 yesterday on expectations of stronger heating demand with colder US temperatures. A further move towards $ 4.50-4.60 can unfold in the coming weeks.

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP K
64 …Expectation 50 …Previous 22

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 3.9 …Previous 1.8 …Actual 3.9

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
60.1 …Expectation 59.9 …Previous 60.9 …Actual 58.9

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
0.4 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.1 …Actual -0.1

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 4.0 …Previous 4.0 …Actual 4.0

{GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-1-8 …Previous 0-2-7 …Actual 0-4-5