The Dollar Index has moved up a bit but the target of 98 is kept open as long as it trades below 100. The EURUSD is approaching the support near 1.1550 from where a rebound towards 1.165-1.1735 is expected. EURINR looks firm above 102.50 and may rise to 104.5, EURJPY & USDJPY are hovering near the resistance coming at 180 & 155 respectively. Watch price action closely to see whether the pairs hold below resistance or extends the rise further. USDCNY is back within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie can trade within 0.6580-0.6480/60 region for some time. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.3250. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.85 for now.

Dollar Index (99.203) dipped to 99 on Friday before recovering. The downside target of 98 remains valid as long as it trades below 100. Only a sustained move above 100 would negate the downside bias and open the way for a rebound towards 101 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1603) has been easing and can test the support near 1.1550 if the fall extends further. As long as the Euro stays above 1.1550, the upside targets of 1.1700–1.1735 are kept open for now.

EURINR (102.9142) is holding well above the support at 102.50 and can move towards 103.50-104.5 before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (179.41) & Dollar-Yen (154.615) are hovering around the crucial resistance at 180 & 155 respectively. Price action around this level will determine whether both the pair reverses toward 178–176 & 152 or extends higher to 182 & 156-158 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1045) has rebounded as expected, returning to its 7.10–7.14 range. A break above 7.11 is needed for further gains. Conversely, if the pair fails to breach 7.11 and slips below 7.09, might exposure it to fall towards 7.080-7.0750.

Aussie (0.6548) can continue to trade within 0.6580-0.6480/60 region for some time before a breakout occurs.

Pound (1.3152) appears vulnerable to fall toward 1.30 as long as it trades below the resistance coming at 1.3250.

USDINR (88.64) has held the 88.50-88.85 range quite well for now. Overall, the upside can be capped at 89.00-89.25 in the near term. A breach below 88.50 will be needed to open the path towards 88.30-88.25.

The US Treasury yields are now at the upper end of their range. Need to wait and see if the expected bullish breakout is happening now or the yields are going to retain their range and fall back from here. The German Yields have risen, breaking above their resistance. While this break sustains, the yields can rise further and will negate our earlier bearish view. The 10Yr GoI is inching up. The support is holding well and that keeps the door open to see more rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have come up to their upper end of their 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range. Need to see if the expected bullish breakout and a rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is happening now or the yields are going to retain their range.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields have risen above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). While this sustains, a further rise to 2.8%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.45% (30Yr) can be seen. That will negate our earlier view of seeing a fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5265%) is inching up. A rise to 6.55% and 6.6% is possible on a break above 6.53%. The chances of a fall below 6.48% mentioned earlier stands reduced now.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow still open to a fall towards 46500 before attempting a rebound, while the DAX has slipped into a tighter 23500-24500 band and needs a breakout for clearer direction. Nifty has recovered well and stays biased higher as long as it holds above 25600-25500, leaving room for a push towards 26200. Nikkei is supported near 49000 and can revisit 51000-52000 if that floor holds, whereas Shanghai remains weak and is likely to hover inside the 4050-3950 range for now.

The Dow (47147.48, -0.65%) has room to test 46,500 on the downside while below 47500. Thereafter it can rise back again to 47000 and higher.

DAX (23876.55, -0.69%) has come down sharply. 23500-24500 looks likely to be the narrow trading range now within its broad 23000-25000 range. We have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next direction of move.

Nifty (25910.05, +0.12%) has risen back sharply from the low of 25741 on Friday. While above 25600-25500, the bias remains bullish to see 26200 on the upside.

Nikkei (50200.0, -0.57%) is holding above the immediate support near 49000 and while this holds we retain our scope for a rise back towards 51000-52000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3970.90, -0.49%) remains weak and can trade within the 4050-3950 region for the near term.

Crude prices bounced on Friday after Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, but both Brent and WTI still look vulnerable unless they rise past their key resistance levels, keeping room for a drop towards lower supports. Gold slipped sharply and is now leaning on the $ 4000 support, which needs to hold to avoid a deeper slide, while Silver tested $ 50 and risks further weakness if that level breaks. Copper continues to drift inside its wider $ 5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas stays under pressure unless it pushes back above $ 4.7, which is essential to revive any bullish attempt.

Brent ($ 63.77) climbed to $ 64.87 on Friday as concerns over global supply increased after Ukraine carried out drone and missile strikes on Russia’s key oil export port at Novorossiysk. As long as it stays below $ 65, our view remains the same for a decline towards $ 62-60 in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 59.45) stays weak while below $ 62, and we continue to expect a fall towards $ 58-56 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4089.30) reversed sharply to a low of $ 4032.60 on Friday against our earlier expectation. Immediate support is near $ 4000, and while this holds, a bounce towards $ 4150-4250 is possible. A break below $ 4000 would turn the outlook bearish for a deeper fall towards $ 3800-3600.

Silver ($ 50.74) dropped to a low of $ 49.86, aligning with our alternate view of a decline towards $ 50. A sustained break below $ 50 can extend the fall to $ 48-47, while holding above $ 50 can trigger a bounce back towards $ 51-52.

Copper ($ 5.0370) is expected to remain within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for now.

Natural Gas ($ 4.4690) is falling contrary to our expectations. Only a sustained break above $ 4.7 can revive the earlier view of a rise towards $ 4.75-4.80. While below $ 4.7, it can decline further towards $ 4.40-4.30.

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectation -0.6% …Previous 0.5%

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectation 2.8 …Previous 2.2

DATA LAST FRIDAY
=================

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expectation 2.7 …Previous 3.0 …Actual 2.9

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectation 5.5 …Previous 6.5 …Actual 4.9

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
-1.40 …Expectation -0.60 …Previous 0.13 …Actual -1.21

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash GDP
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

{GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Trade Bal
…Expectation 8.8 …Previous 10.6 …Actual 18.7