The U.S. economy added 119k jobs in Sep-25, surpassing expectations of 54k, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, creating an unclear picture for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision next month. The Dollar Index can test 101 as long as it stays above 100. EURUSD and EURINR hold the 1.15–1.16 and 102–103 ranges respectively for now. EURJPY and USDJPY are nearing targets of 183 and 160 that could be tested soon. While below 7.125, USDNCY can decline within its 7.13/125-7.09 range. The Aussie needs to surpass 0.6460 to maintain the 0.6450–0.6550 range; otherwise, it could fall toward 0.64 or lower. The Pound is attempting a rebound but the upside can be capped at 1.315-1.320 for now. The targets of 1.30-1.28 are kept open while the Pound trades below 1.32. USDINR can hold the 88.80-88.50/40 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

Dollar Index (100.297) has slipped slightly from 100.36 but the target of 101 remains intact as long as it trades above 100. Thereafter, a breach above 101 will be needed to push the index toward 102 and higher in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1517) has bounced slightly from the low of 1.1499. A decisive break below 1.15 is needed to open the downside toward 1.145–1.140. Else, it can continue to consolidate between 1.15-1.16 region for the next few sessions.

EURINR (102.3068) has held the support near 102 quite well and can trade within 102-103 region for some time before a breakout occurs on either side.

EURJPY (181.29) Dollar-Yen (157.40) have risen to 182 & 157.89 so far. As long as this rise sustains, further tests of 183 and 160 are possible before a potential pullback. Note that 160-162 is the region where BOJ has intervened in the past so even though there is no credible resistance spotted near 160 in USDJPY, the price action around that region would be important to watch. Also a crucial resistance near 182-183 region can be spotted in EURJPY as well. We will have to wait and see how the price action unfolds moving further.

USDCNY (7.1113) faces interim resistance near 7.125 and while it holds a decline within its narrow range of 7.13/125-7.09 can be seen.

Aussie (0.6453) needs to see an immediate break above 0.6460 to keep the 0.6450-0.6550 range intact for now. Else, the pair may fall toward 0.64 or lower on a sustained move below 0.645.

Pound (1.3081) is attempting to recover from the low of 1.3037, but as long as resistance between 1.315 and 1.320 holds, the downside targets of 1.30 or even 1.28 are kept alive for now.

USDINR (88.6680) observed a high of 88.74 yesterday. Immediate resistance is near 88.80, and while it holds, the pair can trade within the 88.80–88.50/40 range for some time. From a broader perspective, it remains uncertain whether the pair will break above 88.80 to move toward 89.00–89.25 or fall below 88.40.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. That keeps the sideways range intact. The expected bullish breakout is getting delayed. The jobs data release showed that the US added 119K jobs to its non-farm payroll in September. The Unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%. The German Yields remain higher but stable. A strong rise is needed from here to go up and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within its sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have come down. So, that continues to keep the 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range intact. The expected bullish breakout and the rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is getting delayed.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields continue to hover stable above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to go up towards 2.8%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.45% (30Yr). Else, the yields can fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5356%) has come down after making a high of 6.5505%. The narrow 6.5%-6.55% range is intact now. 6.5%-6.6% can be a wider possible trading range.

The Dow has plunged after the delayed September jobs report was released yesterday. There is a decent support at 45000 which needs to hold for the Dow to rise back, else the index can continue to decline in the coming days. Dax continues to trade within 23000-24500. Nifty has risen to close to resistance at 26200. A rise past this can continue rally towards 26500 else, can lead to a decline towards 26000-25800. Watch price action near 26200. Nikkei has lost gains seen yesterday and plunged to levels below 49000. However while above lower support at 48000, the index could still have some scope to rebound. Shanghai  has broken below 3900 and can now fall to 3800 or lower soon.

The Dow (45752.26, -0.84%) has plunged after the delayed-September jobs report was released yesterday and alongside a sharp decline in Bitcoin. The next support is seen at 45000 from where the index can attempt to rebound.

DAX (23278.85, +0.50%) has risen but continues to trade within 23000-24500 region and unless a break on either side is seen, medium term direction remains unclear.

Nifty (26192.15, +0.54%) has risen sharply to test our expected resistance level. A sustained break out above 26200 will pave the way for a rise towards 26500. Else if the index declines from here, it can head towards 26000-25800.

Nikkei (48920.97, -1.81%) has lost the sharp gains seen yesterday due to the rally in the technology stocks. The index now trades below 49000 but there is crucial support at 48000 above which the index can again rebound towards 50000-52000. Only a break below 48000, if seen will make the index vulnerable to a deeper decline.

Shanghai (3887.45, -1.11%) has dipped below 3900. It can test 3800 or lower in the coming days.

Crude prices stay weak with Brent and WTI both hovering at the lower end of their ranges and at risk of deeper drops if $ 62 and $ 58 break. Gold holds firm above $ 4000 and can push towards $ 4150-4250, while Silver trades above $ 50 with room to rise unless it slips below that support. Copper remains stable within its broader $ 5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas stays vulnerable below $ 4.7 with scope for a fall towards $ 4.2-4.0.

Brent ($ 62.69) has dipped to the lower end of the $ 66-62 range and could fall further towards $ 60 if it breaks below $ 62.

WTI ($ 58.30) has slipped to the lower edge of the $ 62-58 range and may extend the decline towards $ 56 if it breaks below $ 58.

Gold ($ 4070.30) is inching higher and, while above $ 4000, can rise towards $ 4150-4250 soon.

Silver ($ 50.11) is holding above $ 50. A sustained break below $ 50 can drag it down to $ 48-47, while staying above $ 50 can lift it towards $ 51-52.

Copper ($ 4.9645) can remain within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for now.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6690) dipped to $ 4.45 yesterday and, while below $ 4.7, remains vulnerable to a break below $ 4.30 and a fall towards $ 4.2-4.0.

GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-19 …Expectation -18 …Previous -17

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.5 …Expectation 3.0 …Previous 2.8

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
64 …Expectation 58 …Previous 22 …Actual 119

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.3 …Previous 4.3 …Actual 4.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous -12.8 …Actual -1.7

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
…Expectation 4090.0 …Previous 4050 …Actual 4100