The Dollar Index can test 101 soon. EURUSD is trading lower within its 1.16.-1.15 range. EURINR needs to see a rise past 103.50 to head towards 104. EURJPY and USDJPY are rebounding and if sustained, can head towards 182-183 & 160 region respectively. Watch price action closely around current levels. USDNCY can decline within its 7.13/125-7.09 range. The Aussie & Pound can broadly trade within 0.64-0.66 & 1.30-1.32 region respectively for some time. USDINR has a scope to test 90.00-90.25 in the near term if the pair opens above 89.50.

Dollar Index (100.23) can head towards 101 while it sustains above 100.00-99.50 in the near term. Thereafter, a breach above 101 will be needed to push the index toward 102 and higher in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1509) need to see a breach below 1.15 to extend the fall towards 1.145–1.140. Else, it can continue to consolidate between 1.15-1.16 region for the next few sessions.

EURINR (103.1711) has moved above 103 due to Rupee weakness and can head toward 104 if it breaks past 103.50. Immediate downside is likely limited to 102.50–102.00 for now.

After declining to 179.77 & 156.20 on Friday, EURJPY (180.406) & Dollar-Yen (156.64) are rebounding. Key resistance lies at 182–183 for EURJPY, while 160-162 is the region where BOJ has intervened in the past. We will have to wait and see how the price action unfolds moving further.

USDCNY (7.1078) is coming off as anticipated and can decline towards the lower end of its 7.13/125-7.09 range.

Aussie (0.6455) limited the downside to 0.6421 and has currently risen well. If the rise extends beyond 0.6460, 0.650-0.6550 become the next targets. Overall, a broad 0.64–0.66 range is likely to persist for some time before a decisive breakout.

Pound (1.3094) is rising gradually but faces immediate resistance near 1.315 and while it holds, the pair can trade within 1.320/1.315-1.300 region for some time.

USDINR (88.5920) had surged sharply above 89 on Friday. If the pair opens above 89.50 then a further rise to 90.0-90.25 looks possible before the pair gets peaked out.

The US Treasury yields have come down and have room to dip further within their range. It will have to be seen if they are reversing higher from the lower end of their range. The German Yields are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise after breaking above their resistance. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a fall back in the coming days. The Indian 10Yr GoI has risen well and can rise within its range.

The US 10Yr (4.06%) and 30Yr (4.71%) Treasury yields have come down further. The 10Yr is at the lower end of its 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) range. It may extend the fall to 4%. The 30Yr on the other hand, has room to fall within its 4.65%-4.75% (30Yr) range. We will have to wait and see if the yields are bouncing back from here or not.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.34%) yields are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps alive the chances of falling back below 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) and moving down to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5665%) has risen back above 6.55%. While the break above 6.55% sustains then a rise to 6.6% is possible in the coming days.

The Dow has risen to close at 46245 after an initial decline seen in the early sessions of last week. While above 45500/45000, the index can rise towards 48000 in the near term. But note that in the longer-term charts, 48000 is a crucial resistance. Dax also managed to close above 23000 last week and if the rise sustains, it can rise towards 24000-24500 or higher, else a decisive break below 23000, can open chances of a further decline towards 22000-21000 in the coming weeks. Nifty too needs to sustain above 26000 to head towards 26200 or higher else can initially test 25800 before rebounding towards 26000-26200. Nikkei is headed towards an important support region near 48000-47585 while Shanghai too needs to sustain above 3800 to prevent a fall to 3700-3600. However, bias is to the downside for both Nikkei and Shanghai for the next 1-2 months.

The Dow (46245.41, +1.08%) managed to bounce back while above 45500 last week instead of continuing the fall seen in the early sessions of the week. Note that 48000-45500/45000 can be a broad trade range for the next 2-3 weeks. A break below 45000, can trigger a sharp fall in the medium to long term. Only a decisive break above 48000 can bring in bullish sentiments but that looks less likely at the moment. Bias is to see an eventual decline.

DAX (23091.87, -0.80%) broke below the crucial near term support at 23000 last week to test 22943 but managed to close higher at 23091. If the index manages to sustain trade above 23000, then it can eventually move higher. Else a decisive break below 23000 will open chances of a further decline to 22000-21000 in the coming weeks. Price action near 23000 is crucial to watch.

Nifty (26068.15, -0.47%) dipped to close at 26068 after testing a high of 26247 last week. If the index remains above 26000, there can be chances of a rise to 26200 or higher eventually. Else, a break below 26000, can drag it initially towards 25800 before rebouncing towards 26200 in the medium term. A broad range of 26200-25800 can hold for the next 1-2 weeks.

Nikkei (48625.88, -2.40%) continues to fall sharply, extending the decline seen last week. On the long term charts, 48000-47585 is a good near term support region above which, the index can have some scope to rebound towards 50000-52000 or higher. Failure to hold above 47585 can turn bearish for the medium term. Watch price action near the mentioned support zone.

Shanghai (3834.89, -2.45%) has faced rejection from crucial long term monthly resistance near 4000-4050 and while that holds, the index could be vulnerable to decline further towards 3700-3600 eventually. The fall would be triggered on an initial break below 3800. Till then the 3800-4000 region may hold.

Crude prices have bounced from the sharp decline seen on Friday but while Brent and WTI remains below $ 64 and $ 60, the prices could have decent scope for a fall to $ 60 and $ 56-54 respectively in the coming days. Gold is likely to trade within $ 4000-4150 while Silver can rise to $ 51-52 while above $ 48. Copper remains stable within its broader $ 5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas could rise towards $ 4.7/4.8 while above $ 4.4 on expected colder US weather for end-Nov’25.

Brent ($ 62.52) has scope to test $ 60 on a break below $ 62.50. There is resistance near $ 64 which could hold for the week. Similarly, WTI ($ 58.02) has scope to fall to $ 56-54 region in the coming sessions with $ 60.50-60 a crucial near-term resistance that is likely to hold.

Gold ($ 4050) is likely stuck in a sideways range of $ 4000-4150 and could remain so unless a break on either side of this range is seen.

Silver ($ 49.54) tested near term support at $ 48 and while that holds, it can move up towards $ 51-52 in the coming sessions. A break below $ 48, if seen can trigger a sharp decline to $ 46 but that looks less likely at the moment.

Copper ($ 5.0085) is likely to trade within a range of $ 5.10-4.9 for the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6280) could rise towards $ 4.7-4.8 while above $ 4.4 on expected cold weather in the US for the last week of Nov-25.

GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Previous 88.4

GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Previous 85.3

GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Previous 91.6

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-19 …Expectation -18 …Previous -17 …Actual -19

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.5 …Expectation 3.0 …Previous 2.8 …Actual 3.0