The weaker than expected US Retail sales & Consumer confidence data releases at 0.1%(0.4%) & 88.7(93.4) led Dollar Index to decline yesterday. Still the target of 101 can get achieved as long as the DXY trades above 99.50. EURUSD & EURINR face immediate resistance at 1.16 & 103.50 respectively. EURJPY is trading within 182-180 region. USDJPY can test the support near 155.50 before rising back later. USDNCY has declined below 7.09 and failing to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall towards 7.07-7.065 as well. The Aussie can extend the rise to 0.65-0.655. Pound needs to see a sustained move above 1.32 to turn bullish in the near term, else it can continue to consolidate between 1.32-1.30 region. USDINR is trading below 89.50 and has a scope to extend the decline towards 89.00-88.75. US Personal income, US PCE & US Durable goods are the data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.68) slipped below 100 following softer U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence data, which increased market expectations of a rate cut from FED in Dec’25. Immediate support is now seen around 99.50, which may be tested before a rebound toward 101 occur in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1585) & EURINR (103.3525) have risen well yesterday but both the pair face immediate resistance at 1.16 & 103.50 region which are expected to hold and keep the respective range of 1.16-1.15 & 1-3.50-102.00 intact for now.

EURJPY (180.47) is holding the 182–180 range for now. A breach below 180 if seen can bring the deeper support at 178 into picture.

Dollar-Yen (155.77) is nearing the support at 155.50 which can be tested before attempting to bounce back towards 158 or even 160.

USDCNY (7.0845) has slipped below the support level around 7.09. If the fall continues, it may test the next lower support zone near 7.07–7.065 before attempting a rebound later on.

Aussie (0.6491) has risen as anticipated and if sustained can test our target of 0.650-0.6550 in the near term.

Pound (1.3188) has risen above the expected resistance near 1.3150. However, a sustained move above 1.32 is necessary to strengthen the bullish outlook. Otherwise, it may continue to trade within a broad 1.32–1.30 range.

USDINR (89.1890) tested 89.0375 before recovering a bit. We retain our view of seeing a fall towards 88.75 while the pair trades below 89.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down to their key support. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag them further lower from here. The German Yields have dipped further. They look vulnerable to break below their immediate support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down but has support which can limit the downside. We expect the yield to rise back from this support.

The US 10Yr (4%) and 30Yr (4.65%) Treasury yields are at their key supports now. They have to bounce back immediately to go up to 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr). Else they can fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr) first and then rise back again.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.3%) yields have dipped. They look vulnerable to decline below 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) again and fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4977%) has dipped below 6.5%. But support is around 6.48% from where the yield can bounce back towards 6.55% again. The yield will come under danger of seeing 6.45%-6.4% only on a break below 6.48%.

The Dow and Dax are rising and could test 48000 and 23600 soon, from where a rejection can be possible in the medium term. Nifty is headed towards our expected 25800, where the price action needs to be watched. A rebound can take it back to 26000-26200 (preferred), else can open the door for further decline to 25400-25200 (less likely). Nikkei is bullish towards 50000-52000, while Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000, while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

The Dow (47112.45, +1.43%) is headed towards crucial resistance at 48000 which, if holds can produce a decline towards 47000-46000 again in the medium term.

DAX (23464.63, +0.97%) is headed towards 23600 as expected. Failure to rise beyond 23600 will drag the index back to the 23000-22800 region in the coming 1-2 weeks. Only a sustained break above 23600, if seen can prevent the decline and open doors for 24000-24200.

Nifty (25884.80, -0.29%) slipped to test 25857.50 yesterday in line with our expectation of an initial dip to 25800. A bounce from there can take the index back to 26000-26200. Else, a break below 25800 shall bring further downside targets of 25400-25200 into the picture (looks less likely).

Nikkei (49609.88, +1.95%) is bullish towards 50000-52000 while above 48000-47585.

Shanghai (3872.78, +0.055%) is likely to hold within the 3800-4000 region for the near term and rise towards the upper end of the range.

Crude prices have dipped slightly. Brent and WTI could be trading in a near-term range of $ 64-62 and $ 60.50-58/56. Gold and Silver have moved up. Gold and Silver have important and decent resistance levels of $ 4200 and $ 52/54, respectively, which may hold for the near term. Only a break above the mentioned levels, if seen, can take the prices up towards $ 4400 and $ 54 respectively. Copper has broken above $ 5.10 and is now headed to the next resistance at $ 5.2, from where a rejection back to $ 4.80 looks likely. Natural gas has dipped within the range of $ 4.7-4.4, within which a bounce from $ 4.4 looks likely in the next couple of days.

Brent ($ 62.64) and WTI ($ 58.13) have dipped slightly again. The prices seem to be in a range of $ 64-62.50 and $ 60.50-58/56 for the coming days. A breakout on either side of the mentioned ranges would be needed for medium-term directional clarity. Till then, the trade range may continue to hold.

Gold ($ 4176.40) has broken above $ 4150 and is now headed towards $ 4200. A break above $ 4200 will be needed for Gold to establish a fresh upmove, to $ 4400 or higher; else it may dip back within the broad range of $ 4200-4000.

Silver ($ 51.84) is headed towards $ 52. Note that on the long-term charts, $ 52 and $ 54 are very crucial resistances, which, if held can produce a sharp decline from there to $ 48 or lower in the coming weeks. A decisive break above $ 54 is needed to ensure fresh bullishness for the longer run. For now, a test of $ 52 or even $ 54 looks possible while above $ 48.

Having broken above interim resistance at $ 5.10, Copper ($ 5.1190) is now headed towards the next upper resistance at $ 5.2, from where a rejection looks possible. Copper will have to break above $ 5.2 and sustain to open the door to a rise towards $ 5.4-5.6.

Natural Gas ($ 4.4910) dipped back within the 4.7-4.4/4.2 region. This mentioned range is likely to hold for some more time till we see a decisive break on either side within which a bounce from $ 4.4 looks likely.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU CPI
…Expectation 3.60 …Previous 3.24

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
0.4 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
1.7 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 2.9

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US PPI
0.0 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.3

GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US Core PPI
…Previous-0.1 …Actual 0.1

GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
1.1 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.6 …Actual 0.1

GMT 14.00 IST 19.30 US Case Schiller
…Previous 1.6 …Actual 1.4

GMT 15.00 IST 20.30 US Cons Conf
…Expectation 93.4 …Previous 94.6 …Actual 88.7