The US FOMC is scheduled today wherein the central bank is widely expected to lower the rates by 25 bps. The Dollar Index looks stable above 99 for now. The targets of 98-97 are kept open for now. EURUSD & EURINR are approaching the respective supports coming at 1.16 & 104 which can be tested soon before rising back later. EURJPY need to see a sustain move above 182 to bring 184-185 into picture. USDJPY is rising within its 154-158 range. USDCNY & AUDUSD is stuck within 7.08-7.06 & 0.665-0.660 region respectively. Pound is trading near the support at 1.33. Need to see whether it holds or the fall extends further. USDINR can initially test 89.75 or 89.50 before rebounding towards 90.25-90.50 later.

Dollar Index (99.231) remained stable above 99 ahead of the FOMC scheduled today. The upside can be capped at 100.00-100.50. The downside targets of 98-97 are kept open until further clarity.

EURUSD (1.1629) & EURINR (104.5559) are coming off but as long as support at 1.16 and 104 holds, we maintain our view of a rise toward 1.17–1.18 and 105.50–106.00 in the near term. Only a break below 1.16 and 104 if seen, would shift the focus to 1.15 and 103 initially before a later rebound.

EURJPY (182.14) rose above 182, tested 182.65, and then pulled back. A sustained move above 182 is needed to open the doors for 184–185. Otherwise, continued weakness can drag it back into the 182–180 range.

Dollar-Yen (156.66) is trading higher within its 154-158 which is likely to hold in the near term.

USDCNY (7.0619) continues to remain stuck between 7.08-7.06 region. Immediate support is coming at 7.05 and while it holds, the view remains intact to see a rise towards 7.08-7.10 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6632) is hovering just below the 0.665 resistance, trading in a narrow 0.665–0.660 range. A breakout on either side is needed for clarity. Watch price action here to see whether 0.665 holds or the rise extends toward 0.67 and higher.

Pound (1.3303) is trading near the support coming around current levels. Failing to rebound can extend the fall towards 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (89.8930) has immediate support from the moving averages coming near 89.75 & lower at 89.50 which can get tested initially before rebounding towards 90.25-90.50 later.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher and stable inside their resistance zone. The US Fed meeting outcome tonight will be important to watch. It could decide whether the yields can break their resistance and move higher or will they fall back. A 25bps rate cut is widely expected from the Fed tonight. The economic projections and the future rate path will be much more important to look for. The German yields remain higher. The bias is positive to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range. If the momentum sustains, a bullish breakout and more rise is possible going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and 30Yr (4.8%) Treasury yields sustain higher and stable inside their 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) resistance zone. Need to see if the yields are breaking above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) to move further up to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Failure to do so can drag them down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.85%) and 30Yr (3.46%) yields remain higher. The outlook remains bullish to see an extended rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (06.48 GS 2035, 6.5902%) has risen sharply. While the momentum sustains, the yield can break 6.6% and rise to 6.7%-6.75% in the coming weeks.

The Dow holds within the 47000-49000 range while the DAX looks bullish towards 24500. Nifty could have scope to test 25600 before climbing towards 26000 or higher again. Nikkei needs a sustained break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai has dipped below 3900 and could head towards the lower end of the 3950-3800 range.

The Dow (47560.29, -0.38%) is trading within a sideways range of 47000-49000 and needs a break on either side to give clairty on long term direction. For now, the mentioned range can hold for the near term.

DAX (24162.65, +0.49%) has risen as expected . The index can rise futher to break above 24200 and test 24500 soon.

Nifty (25839.65, -0.47%) fell to test 25728 before moving up to close higher. The index has some chances of seeing a dip to 25600 on a break below 25800 before eventually rising higher towards 26000 or higher.  Overall, 25600-26000 can hold for the near term.

Nikkei (50,530.39, -0.25%) tested 51107.77 before falling sharply to close lower. A sustained rise above 51,000 is needed to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, the index may continue to trade sideways within the range of 51,000–48,000.

Shanghai (3,895.81,-0.35%) has dipped below 3900 and could have scope to decline towards the lower end of the 3950-3800 region. Thereafter it has to be seen if the index would hold above 3800 or decline further.

Crude remains soft with Brent holding within $ 64-62 and WTI inside $ 60-58. Gold is likely to stay in a steady $ 4200-4300 band before it tries for a rise to$ 4400. Silver is finally pushing through resistance with room to reach $ 62-63 if the rise holds. Copper has slipped more than expected and can dip toward $ 5.20 before stabilising. Natural Gas has broken support and may slide further toward $ 4.50-4.00 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 62.08) and WTI ($ 58.40) have weakened further and are likely to stay within their respective $ 64-62 and $ 60-58 ranges for now.

Gold ($ 4242.00) is expected to hold inside the $ 4200-4300 band for some time before attempting a move towards $ 4400 or higher.

Silver ($ 61.50) is breaking above its immediate resistance and can extend higher towards $ 62-63 if the upside momentum holds.

Copper ($ 5.3540) turned lower to $ 5.31 yesterday against expectations, opening the door for a deeper dip towards $ 5.20 before a possible rebound.

Natural Gas ($ 4.5820) has slipped below support and fell to $ 4.55 yesterday, leaving potential for a further decline towards $ 4.50-4.00 in the near term.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.2

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.0 …Previous -2.1

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectations 2.3 …Previous 2.3

GMT 18:00 IST 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <3.75 ...Previous <4.00 DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 3:30 IST 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 3.6 …Previous 3.6 …Actual 3.6