The Dollar Index and EURUSD can test 97.50–97.00 and 1.1800 respectively in the near term before pausing. EURINR has tested 106 and is hovering just below it; we need to watch whether this resistance holds. EURJPY can extend higher towards 184–185 before topping out. USDJPY continues to trade within the 154–158 range. USDCNY may test support at 7.05 or even 7.04 before staging a rebound. AUDUSD must sustain above 0.665 to open a move towards 0.67–0.68. GBPUSD has room to test 1.3450–1.3500 in the coming sessions. USDINR surged to 90.4825 before easing slightly. A decisive break above 90.50 is required to bring higher levels into focus; failure to clear it could push the pair lower towards 90.00–89.75. India’s CPI data is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (98.37) observed the low of 98.13 before recovering a bit. There is enough room in the charts for the DXY to extend the fall towards 97.50-97.00 before eventually rebounding towards 100.50 in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1734) is rising in line with our view and can test 1.18 in the near term.

EURINR (105.9457) has already met our 106 target before the minor pullback. We will need to monitor whether the 106 level holds and pushes the pair lower, or if a breakout occurs, opening the way towards 107+.

EURJPY (182.72) is slowly inching higher and it has fair scope to rise towards 184-185 before facing a sharp rejection towards 182-180 for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (155.70) tested the low of 154.945 before recovering from there. Overall, a broad range of 154-158 can remain intact for some time.

USDCNY (7.0554) has interim support coming at 7.05 & lower at 7.04 which can be tested before bouncing back later.

Aussie (0.6667) need to sustain above 0.6650 to extend the rise towards 0.67-0.68 in the near term.

Pound (1.3375) is rising in line with our view and if sustained, can test 1.3450-1.350 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (90.2780) achieved our target of 90.25 and even exceeded it further to 90.4825 before pulling back. A sustained break above 90.50 is required to open the upside towards 90.75–91.00, while inability to clear 90.50 could lead to a dip towards 90.00–89.75.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well. Need to see if they manage to gain strength to break their resistance. Only then the fall will be avoided, and a further rise is possible. The German Yields remain stable. Outlook remains positive. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has failed to get a strong follow-through rise and has come down. Failure to rise back immediately can put it back into the previous range.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.80%) Treasury yields have risen back well from their respective lows 4.15% and 4.75%. A strong rise above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed to clear the way for the rise to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Only then the chances of the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) will get negated.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.45%) yields continue to remain stable. The bias remains positive to see a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (06.48 GS 2035, 6.5832%) has failed to sustain the breakout above 6.6% and has come down. Need to wait and watch. A fall below 6.55% will put it back into the 6.48%-6.6% sideways range.

The Dow can rise towards 49000 from where a pullback is possible while the DAX looks bullish towards 24500.  Nifty can target 26000 or higher again while above 25800. Nikkei tested 51127 but has dipped back below 51000. Unless a sustained break past 51000 is seen, the index may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (48704.01, +1.34%) continued to rise as expected. A short pullback can be expected from 49000 in the near term. Only a decisive break above 49000, if seen can be bullish towards 50000.

DAX (24294.61, +0.68%) tested 24364 yesterday before closing slightly lower. Sustained trade above 24200 can take the index towards 24500 in the near term before pausing for some correction.

Nifty (25898.55, +0.55%) bounced back from 25693 itself to close higher. While above 25600/800, Nifty can slowly rise back towards 26000 or higher in the upcoming sessions.

Nikkei (50,567.83, +0.84%) tested 51127 but has dipped from there to trade lower just now. The index needs a sustained rise past 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, the index may continue to trade sideways within the range of 51,000–48,000.

Shanghai (3,856.34, -0.44%) has declined back within the 3950-3800 region. Further view is unclear unless a decisive breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Crude prices remains under pressure with Brent sliding towards $ 60 and WTI aiming for $ 56. Gold is trying to break past $ 4300 with room to advance toward $ 4400-4500. Silver is pushing higher towards $ 65-66 as momentum stays strong. Copper has bounced well and can rise further towards $ 5.55-5.60. Natural Gas has fallen more than expected on warmer US weather signals and could fall towards $ 4.0-3.8 in the near term.

Brent ($ 61.70) has slipped to a low of $ 60.70 and can extend its decline towards $ 60 in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 58.04) fell to a low of $ 57 yesterday and retains scope for a further drop towards $ 56 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4305.10) is trying to break decisively above $ 4300. A sustained move higher could open the way to $ 4400-4500 soon.

Silver ($ 64.25) continues to rise as expected and can extend further towards $ 65-66 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.4805) has rebounded in line with expectations, testing a high of $ 5.51 yesterday. It can push higher towards $ 5.55-5.60.

Natural Gas ($ 4.2250) has plunged to a low of $ 4.19 as warmer US weather expectations weighed on prices. It can fall further towards $ 4.0-3.8 in the coming sessions.

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectations -19.0 …Previous -18.9

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
0.60 …Previous 0.25

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 20.3 …Previous 42.2 …Actual -21.4

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.0 …Actual 0.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -65.5 …Previous -59.6 …Actual -52.8