The Dollar Index need to see a confirmed break past 99 to head towards 100-10 levels. EURUSD has moved below 1.165 and if sustained, can extend the fall to 1.160-1.155. EURINR remains vulnerable to fall towards 104.50-104.00 while below 105. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 182-185 & 154-158 range respectively for now. USDCNY need to break below 6.98 to fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie need to see a break below 0.6680 to open the doors for 0.66 and lower levels. Else, it can attempt to rise back towards 0.6700-0.6750. Pound is trading lower within 1.355-1.340 region. While above 89.75, USDINR can move within 89.75-90.25 region before eventually rising further. Only a break below 89.75 is seen can bring the 89.50-89.25 levels into picture. Watch out for the US NFP, US Unemployment, US Avg hrly earnings & US Housing starts data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.984) is rising gradually and a sustained move above 99 if seen can take the index towards 100-101 levels in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1648) has slipped below 1.1648 and if the fall continues, a test to 1.160-1.155 levels can happen.

EURINR (104.6991) has a scope to extend the fall towards 104.50-104.00 while it trades below 105.

EURJPY (183.11) has immediate support coming around 182, above which the range of 182-185 is likely to hold in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (157.17) can test 158 soon. Thereafter, whether the resistance at 158 holds or the rise extends further remains to be seen. For now, a narrow range of 156-158 & broad range of 154-158 is expected to hold for a while.

USDCNY (6.9808) need to see a breach below 6.98 level to move towards the targets of 6.95 or even 6.90 in the medium term. Overall, view remains bearish below 7.

Aussie (0.6695) has bounced from the immediate moving average support coming near 0.6680 region. While it holds, the pair can attempt to bounce back towards 0.6750 again. A confirmed break below 0.6680 will be needed to make the outlook bearish towards 0.66 or slightly lower. Watch price action closely around 0.6680 region.

Pound (1.3431) is trading lower within its 1.3550-1.3400 range and a break on either side will be needed for further clarity. A break below 1.34 if seen can open the doors for 1.33-1.32 levels in the medium term.

USDINR (89.8820) closed above 90 yesterday. On the NDF it is trading near 89.88 region. While above 89.75, a 89.75-90.25 range can hold for some time before eventually heading towards 90.35-90.50. Only a sustained break below 89.75 could shift the focus towards the lower levels of 89.50-89.25.

The US Treasury yields remain within their sideways range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move. Need to see if the jobs data release today will provide that trigger for the breakout or not. The German yields have bounced. But they have to rise past the immediate resistance to avoid the fall that we are expecting. The Indian GoI has bounced back. It is holding well above its support. That keeps alive the positive bias of seeing further rise.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields remain within their 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.78%-4.9% (30Yr) range and have inched up within it. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.47%) yields have bounced back. But a rise above 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (10Yr) is needed to see more rise. Else the fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) cannot be avoided.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6290%) has bounced. 6.6% and 6.55% are good supports. While these supports hold, the bias will remain positive to see a rise to 6.7% on the upside again.

The Dow has risen back and is headed towards 49500 while the DAX can test 25500 soon. Nifty has broken below 26000 and can test 25600 before a bounce is seen. Failure to hold above 25600 could trigger fresh bearishness for the near to medium term. Nikkei and Shanghai have risen back after a short dip seen in the earlier session. They could continue to rise towards 53000-54000 and 4100+ levels eventually.

The Dow (49266.11, +0.55%) has risen back to head towards 49500. While above 49000, view is bullish.

DAX (25127.46, +0.021%) is almost stable. While above 25000-25100, there can be chances of a further rise towards 25500-26000 soon.

Nifty (25876.85, -1.01%) dipped again yesterday breaking below our expected support at 26000. The index will have to remain above 25600 to attempt a bounce back to 26000-26500 else can trigger fresh bearishness in the coming days.

Nikkei (51485.91, +0.72%) has recovered the dip seen yesterday. A rise past 52000 is needed for the index to again gain momentum for a rise towards 53000-54000 in the medium term.

Shanghai (4089.38,, +0.16%) has managed to rise back slightly today. However, while below 4100, a rejection can take the index down towards 4000 or lower in the medium term. A decisive break above 4100 is needed to prevent the expected correction.

Brent and WTI have rebounded on better US data but remain range-bound below key resistances. Gold is holding firm above $ 4,400, keeping the upside bias intact. Silver remains vulnerable for a decline towards $ 72-70. Copper is stabilising near $ 5.7 and may see a bounce. Natural gas is holding support at $ 3.4 and could rebound in the near term.

Brent ($ 62.42) has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 63.02 yesterday, supported by better-than-expected US economic data indicating strength in energy demand. While it remains below $ 63–$ 64, a range of $ 64–$ 58 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 56.21) has rebounded to a high of $ 58.74 yesterday. While it stays below $ 59, the previously mentioned range of $ 59–$ 55 is likely to remain intact for some time.

Gold ($ 4,479.50) is holding comfortably above $ 4,400, and while this support holds, a rise towards $ 4,550–$ 4,600 remains likely.

Silver ($ 76.74) is attempting to break lower after testing a low of $ 73.53 yesterday. It remains vulnerable to a further fall towards $ 72–$ 70 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.8525) tested a low of $ 5.69 yesterday, in line with our expectations. Immediate support is seen near $ 5.70, and if it holds, a bounce back towards $ 6.00 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.41) has fallen back to its support near $ 3.40. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 remains possible in the near term.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Housing Starts
…Expectations 1330 …Previous 1307

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 57 …Previous 64

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.5 …Previous 4.6

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 5.6 …Previous 4.4 …Actual 2.9

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.1

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.4 …Previous 6.4 …Actual 6.3

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Biz Climate
…Expectations 97 …Previous 97.0 …Actual 96.7

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -58.5 …Previous -48.1 …Actual -29.4