The Dollar Index can attempt to rise back towards 99.50 and above while it sustains above 98. EURUSD has a scope to fall toward 1.165-1.160 in the coming sessions while it trades below 1.17. EURINR can trade within 108-106/105 region for some time. EURJPY & USDJPY can head towards 187-188 & 160-162 levels respectively in the near term. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie has risen past 0.6750 and a sustained move above 0.68 if seen can take it towards 0.6850-0.6900 levels. Pound can trade within 1.330-1.355 range for now. USDINR broke above 91.50, contrary to our expectations. Higher resistance is seen at 92.00–92.20, where the immediate upside is likely to be capped. US DP, US PCE & US Personal Income are scheduled to release today.

Dollar Index (98.759) has recovered well from the low of 98.246 seen day before yesterday. While above 98, the DXY can attempt to rise back towards 99.50 or even higher in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1688) has slipped below 1.17 and failing to see an immediate rise past it can extend the fall towards 1.165-1.160 levels in the near term.

EURINR (106.9725) initially rose to the level of 107.587 before coming down. Immediate resistance is coming at 108 and while it holds, the EURINR can trade within 108-106/105 region for some time.

EURJPY (185.20) has immediate support coming at 184, above which the pair can attempt to rise towards 187-188 levels in the near term. A break past 186 will confirm the anticipated rise.

Dollar-Yen (158.40) is slowly inching higher and while above 158, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 160-162 levels.

USDCNY (6.9613) can fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks while the resistance at 6.97 holds.

Aussie (0.6793) has finally broken above the 0.6650–0.6750 range. A sustained move above 0.68 is needed to target 0.6850-0.6900, failing which the pair may slip back into 0.6750-0.6650 range.Watch price action closely around 0.68 level.

Pound (1.3424) has immediate resistance between 1.350-1.355 levels and while it holds, a range of 1.330-1.350/355 can hold for some time.

USDINR (91.4690) surged to a high of 91.7425, contrary to our view of holding below 91.50. Currently it is trading near 91.47 on the NDF. Watch price action closely for any intervention from RBI. Immediate resistance is seen near 92.00–92.20, where the upside is expected to be capped.

The US Treasury yields have come down from their highs. Though there is room to fall from here, support can limit the downside. That will keep the broader bias positive to see more rise in the coming days. The German yields have risen above their resistance. While this break sustains, the yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come down. Failure to sustain above the immediate support can drag yield further lower first and then take it higher again.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.87%) Treasury yields have come down sharply after testing 4.3% and 4.95% respectively. But support is at 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85%-4.8% (30Yr). While they hold, a rise back to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) is possible in the coming days.

The German 10Yr (2.88%) and 30Yr (3.51%) yields have risen above their resistance at 2.85% and 3.5% respectively. While this sustains, 2.9%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr) can be seen on the upside. It will then negate the fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) that we have been expecting.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6536%) has come down. It has to sustain above 6.65% to go up towards 6.7%-6.75% from here. Else a dip to 6.6%-6.55% can be seen first and then the rise can happen.

The Dow rallied after Trump said he has reached a framework of the Greenland deal with NATO and would not have to hike tariffs on Europe. While above 49,000, the Dow can rise back towards 49500 ans higher. The DAX on the other hand has declined yesterday but may have some scope to recover back towards 25000 in the next few sessions. Nifty needs to sustain above 25000 to slowly move up. Nikkei and Shanghai can rise in the near term while above 53000 and 4100 respectively.

The Dow(49077.23, +1.21%)   tested 48428 before the index moved up to close above 49,000. The rise came in after Trump’s speech where he said he has reached the framework of the Greenland deal with NATO and may not have the need for fresh tariffs on Europe. Sustained trade above 49,000 can take the index towards 49,500 and higher eventually.

DAX (24560.98, -0.58%) continued to decline but could have scope to rise back towards 25000 in the next few sessions as Trump has taken away the need for fresh tariffs that were to be implemented from 1st Feb.

Nifty (25157.50, -0.30%) rose back above 25000 yesterday and closed higher. But the index needs to necessarily hold above 25000 to keep hopes for a slow rise from here towards 25600/800-26000 again, else could be vulnerable to see a deck be towards long term support at 24000.

Nikkei (53348.21, +1.09%) tested 52194 yesterday and has managed to bounce back, trading higher today. While above 52000, the index could slowly pick up momentum towards 54,000-55,000 in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (4116.94, +0.080%) continues to rise and while above 4050, we may expect trade within the 4200-4050 region.

Crude prices have risen after holding support, backed by lower surplus expectations and geopolitical risks, with further upside likely. Gold remains firm after hitting fresh highs and continues to target $ 5,000 in the near term. Silver stays bullish despite the dip, with upside potential towards $ 96–$ 98. Copper is holding above $ 5.80, and only a clear break below can trigger further downside. Natural gas has surged sharply on Arctic weather forecasts, with scope for a further rise towards $ 5.50–$ 6.00.

Brent ($ 65.29) and WTI ($ 60.71) have risen after finding support on Wednesday following the IEA’s decision to cut its global crude surplus estimate for this year. Additionally, President Trump continues to consider possible military actions against Iran, which could disrupt Middle East crude supplies. Prices can rise further towards $ 66–$ 68 and $ 61–$ 62 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 4,790.90) tested a fresh high of $ 4,891.10 yesterday, in line with our expectation. A test of $ 5,000 remains likely over the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 92.01) has dipped, but our view remains bullish towards $ 96–$ 98 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.8055) is failing to sustain a break below $ 5.80. Only a clear break below this level can drag prices down towards $ 5.60–$ 5.50.

Natural Gas ($ 5.1490) has soared more than 50% over the last two days on forecasts of Arctic weather moving into the US, boosting heating demand and potentially disrupting gas production as water freezes inside pipelines. A further rise towards $ 5.50–$ 6.00 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 26.5 …Previous -21.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.2 …Previous 0.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index
0.1 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Core PCE
0.1 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US GDP
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
…Expectations 3.3 …Previous 3.3 …Actual 3.3