The DXY can rise towards 99 while above 97.50 while Euro can dip towards 1.17/1.16 on a break below 1.18. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106. EURJPY can test 184 initially, a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186. USDJPY has moved up well and can face resistance from 156 and fall to 154. USDCNY can rise towards 6.92. The Aussie and Pound can rise, while above 0.70 and 1.34 respectively. USDINR needs to break above 91 to rise towards 91.50 else can dip to 90.50/30 soon.
Dollar Index (97.407) can rise while above 97.30-97.50 and head towards 99.
EURUSD (1.1823) is holding above 1.18 just now but unless a sustained rise is seen from here, chances of a dip to 1.17/16 remains.
EURINR (107.2943) has support near 106.5 from where a bounce back towards 108 and higher is possible in the longer run.
EURJPY (182.36) is looking bullish for the near term with initial resistance at 184, a break above which could open doors on the upside towards 186-188 in the longer run. Watch price action near 184.
Dollar-Yen (154.22) has immediate resistance at 156 below which a dip to 154-152 or lower looks possible.
USDCNY (6.9075) is stable and likely to rise within the 6.90-6.92 region for the near term.
Aussie (0.7080) needs to bounce back, holding the support at 0.70; else could fall towards 0.69 in the next few sessions.
Pound (1.3518) is holding above 1.34 and can rise towards 1.36 in the near term.
USDINR (90.9813) closed just below 91 last week. Immediate resistance is seen at 91 a break above which will open doors for a further rise to 91.25/91.50. Failure to rise above 91 will pull it down towards 90.50/90.30.
The US Treasury yields are attempting to rise back. But they have to break their immediate resistances to go higher. Else, they can fall back again to test their supports and then possibly see a rise. The German yields remain lower. They can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise further in the coming weeks.
The US 10Yr (4.08%) and 30Yr (4.72%) Treasury yields have to rise above 4.1% and 4.75% respectively to go higher towards 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) again. Else there is danger of falling back to 4% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) and even lower going forward.
The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.40%) yields remain lower and stable. The downside remains open to see a fall to 2.7%-2.65% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.7214%) has risen well above 6.7%. That keeps intact our view of seeing a rise to 6.8%.
Dow is hovering above key support and looks likely to bounce towards 49,800–50,000 as long as it holds. DAX remains firm after testing recent highs and can extend gains towards 25,400–25,500 in the near term. Nifty has moved higher and is expected to stay within the 25,300–26,000 range while support holds. Nikkei continues to weaken as expected, with further downside towards 56,150–56,000 likely. Shanghai remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume trading from 24-Feb-26.
Dow (49,387, -0.58%) is hovering above its immediate support and, as long as this support holds, a bounce towards 49,800–50,000 remains likely.
DAX (25,160, +0.15%) tested a high of 25,385 on Friday, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards 25,400–25,500 can be seen in the near term.
Nifty (25,571.25, +0.46%) has moved higher and, as long as the support near 25,300 holds, the range of 25,300–26,000 can remain intact for some time.
Nikkei (56,655.0, -2.32%) is falling in line with our expectations, with a further decline towards 56,150–56,000 likely in the near term.
Shanghai (4,082.07, -1.26%) is closed for the week-long Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) holiday, with normal trading sessions resuming from 24-Feb-26.
Brent and WTI remains positive with scope to move up towards $ 74–$ 76 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively. Gold is testing the $ 5,100 level and a sustained break above this can trigger a rally towards $ 5,250–$ 5,350. Silver is moving higher and may retest $ 90 if the momentum holds. Copper needs a sustained break above $ 5.80 to extend the rise towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20. Natural Gas stays biased higher towards $ 3.20–$ 3.40 as long as immediate support holds.
Brent ($ 71.24) has dipped slightly, but the overall view remains intact for a rise towards $ 74–$ 76 in the coming sessions.
WTI ($ 65.96) remains likely to rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.
Gold ($ 5,179.40) is attempting a break above $ 5,100, and a sustained move above this level can take it higher towards $ 5,250–$ 5,350 in the near term.
Silver ($ 86.70) is moving higher, and if the rise sustains, levels near $ 90 can be retested soon.
Copper ($ 5.8550) needs a sustained break above $ 5.80 to continue the rise towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20. Otherwise, it can fall towards $ 5.50–$ 5.40.
Natural Gas ($ 3.0880) has bounced back from a low of $ 2.9490 and closed higher at $ 3.04 for the day. While the immediate support holds, the earlier-mentioned rise towards $ 3.20–$ 3.40 can be seen. Alternatively, a sustained break below this can drag it down towards $ 2.80–$ 2.60.
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Previous 87.6
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Previous 85.7
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Previous 89.5
DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.8 …Expectations 2.0 …Previous 2.1
13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
0.3 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3
13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
0.3 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2
13:30 19:00 US Core PCE
0.3 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2
13:30 19:00 US GDP
…Expectations 3.20 …Previous 4.30
15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
726 …Expectations 736 …Previous 737