The DXY can rise towards 99 while Euro can dip towards 1.17/1.16. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106.70. EURJPY can test 184 initially, a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186 while USDJPY has moved up well from 153.99 and can move to test near term resistance at 156. USDCNY has fallen and while it sustains below 6.90, a dip to 6.85 looks possible. The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR moved up yesterday to close at 90.8875. If it holds below 91, a dip back towards 90.50/30 can be possible else, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

Dollar Index (97.836) has risen well as expected and could be headed towards 99 soon.

EURUSD (1.1776) failed to hold above 1.18 and could now decline to 1.17/16 in the near term.

EURINR (107.1962) has bounced from 106.59 tested on Friday. There is support at 106.70 now, above which a slow rise towards 108 looks possible in the medium term.

EURJPY (182.60) is looking bullish for the near term with initial resistance at 184, a break above which could open doors on the upside towards 186-188 in the longer run. Watch price action near 184.

Dollar-Yen (154.99) tested 153.99 yesterday after the Trump’s 15% global tariff plan, but has risen well from there. It has immediate resistance at 156 below which a dip to 154-152 or lower looks possible again in the medium term. A break above 156 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in.

USDCNY (6.8964) has dipped below 6.90, contrary to our expectation of a rise towards 6.92. While below 6.90, the support of 6.85 again comes into the picture.

Aussie (0.7059) tested 0.71122 yesterday before falling to close at 0.7055. The pair has risen slightly today and while above 0.7014, the pair can slowly rise towards 0.71. However, we cannot fully negate downside chances of 0.69.

Pound (1.3491) is headed towards 1.36 in the near term.

USDINR (90.8875) opened lower at 90.7525 yesterday and slipped to a low of 90.6750, but it failed to sustain and bounced back to close higher at 90.8875. However, the immediate upside looks capped near 91 and, while below this level, a decline towards 90.50–90.25 remains likely in the near term. A break above 91 will open door for 91.25/50.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. They can fall more to test their supports in the coming days. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a reversal. The German Yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall more. The 10Yr GoI has dipped but sustains well above its support. That keeps the bias positive to see more rise going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.04%) and 30Yr (4.71%) Treasury yields are coming down to test 4% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr). The price action thereafter will need close watch for a reversal.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.38%) yields have come down in line with our expectation. Our view of seeing 2.7%-2.65% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) on the downside remains intact. Need to see if the yields are reversing higher after that.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7132%) has dipped but sustains above 6.7%. While above 6.7%, the yield can rise to 6.8%.

Global equities remain mixed as the Dow plunged sharply on rising tariff threats and AI disruption fears and could slip further towards 48,500–48,000. DAX fell against expectations and may test 24,800 before resuming a rise towards 25,400–25,500. Nifty moved higher but needs to break 25,800 to head towards 26,000, otherwise a pullback to 25,400 is possible with a 26,000–25,400 range likely to hold. Nikkei is gradually slipping and can fall towards 57,000–56,500. Shanghai has opened strong after the holiday and may rise further towards 4,150–4,175 while holding above 4,050.

Dow (48,922, +0.15%) plunged by 821 points yesterday, contrary to our expectations, amid rising global tariff threats and growing concerns over artificial intelligence related disruptions. If this decline sustains, a further fall towards 48,500–48,000 can be seen in the near term.

DAX (25,075, +0.18%) fell to a low of 24,976 yesterday, also against our expectations. Immediate support near 24,800 may be tested in the near term before a recovery towards our earlier mentioned levels of 25,400–25,500 takes place.

Nifty (25,713, +0.55%) rose by 142 points yesterday. Immediate resistance near 25,800 needs to be broken to open the way for a move towards 26,000 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, a pullback towards 25,400 remains possible. Overall, a range of 26,000–25,400 may hold for some time.

Nikkei (57,270, +0.82%) is slipping gradually and can decline further towards 57,000–56,500 in the near term.

Shanghai (4,123.88, +1.06%) has opened higher at 4,129 after a week-long holiday. A rise towards 4,150–4,175 can be seen in the near term while it remains above 4,050.

Brent and WTI are rising in line with expectations and can extend gains towards $ 74–$ 76 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively in the near term. Gold has moved above $ 5,100, tested $ 5,257, and remains poised for a further rise towards $ 5,300–$ 5,400. Silver continues to move higher and can target $ 90. Copper has strengthened above $ 5.80 and can advance towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20. Natural Gas has fallen sharply on warmer US weather forecasts and may decline further towards $ 2.8–$ 2.6 in the near term.

Brent ($ 71.93) is rising in line with our expectations and can move higher towards $ 74–$ 76 in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 66.64) is rising, and the setup remains supportive for a further rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 5,205.10) has risen above $ 5,100 and tested a high of $ 5,257 in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 5,300–$ 5,400 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 87.07) is moving higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 90 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.9015) has risen above $ 5.80 and tested a high near $ 5.90, and can continue its rise towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9220) has fallen back sharply in line with our alternate expectation after US weather forecasts pointed to above-normal temperatures into the first week of March. A further decline towards $ 2.8–$ 2.6 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 1.3 …Previous 1.4

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Cons Conf
83.0 …Expectations 87.6 …Previous 84.5

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Previous 87.6 …Actual 88.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Previous 85.7 …Actual 86.7

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Previous 89.5 …Actual 90.5