The Dollar Index and Euro are likely to consolidate within the 98.50-99.75 and 1.1750-1.15 zones respectively while EURINR may rise towards 107/108 while above support near 105-105.50. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within 180-185 region and 156-160 region respectively. USDCNY needs to hold above 6.85 to rise further towards 6.90/95. Aussie and Pound are headed towards 0.71/72 and 1.35/36 respectively. The USDINR may trade within 91.50-92.50 region for the near term.
Dollar Index (99.358) is likely to continue trade within 99.75-98.50 for the near term.
EURUSD (1.1549) has been volatile within the 1.15-1.17/1750 region for the last few days. Unless a break out on either side of this range is seen, it may continue to trade within this range. Preference is to see a bearish breakout.
EURINR (106.4732) looks bullish towards 107/108 while above support at 105.50/105.
EURJPY (183.48) is likely to continue trade within a broader range of 180-185 in the coming days with possibility of testing either sides of the mentioned range first.
Dollar-Yen (158.83) is headed towards the upper end of the 156-160 range. Upon testing 160, a short corrective dip can be seen towards 158/156 in the longer run.
USDCNY (6.8738) needs to sustain above 6.85 for an eventual rise towards 6.92/95 or higher.
Aussie (0.7155) is headed towards 0.72. Sustained break above 0.72 can take it towards 0.75/78 in the coming days.
Pound (1.3395) is likely to head towards 1.35/36 while above 1.3250. A break below 1.3250, if seen can make the currency bearish towards 1.31/30 (less likely).
USDINR (92.0450) looks bullish for the near term for a rise towards 92.30/50. Any dip below 91.80, if seen can give a short scope of testing 91.50. Overall view looks bullish.
The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this rise sustains, the yields can move up further in the coming days. The US Headline CPI inched up to 2.43% (YoY) in February up from 2.39% in January. The impact of high oil prices will come into play in March and can push the CPI higher. Overall, the situation is positive for the yields for now. The German yields have risen well and are gaining momentum. They can rise further from here. The Indian GoI has come down. It can dip further to test its support first and then resume the broader uptrend.
|
The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.88%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. While above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr), the yields can rise to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.93%) and 30Yr (3.49%) yields have risen sharply. The 10Yr has risen above 2.9% and can rise further to 3%. The 30Yr can rise to 3.6% on a break above 3.5%.
The 10Yr GoI (6.6366%) has come down further. A test of 6.6% looks likely to be seen first before the broader uptrend resumes. While above 6.6%, the upside will remain open to see 6.8% eventually.
Global equities have weakened. The Dow has reversed and can decline further towards 46500-46000. The DAX has also fallen after failing to break above 24000 and may drop towards 22500-22000. Nifty has declined sharply below the key 24000 level, breaking the multi year support seen since Jun-22, and while it stays below this level the fall could extend towards 23500-23000. Nikkei has also reversed from its recent high and can slip towards 53500-53000 in the coming sessions. Shanghai remains relatively stable and may continue to move within the 4200-4050 range for some time.
Dow (46946, -1.05%) has reversed before rising towards 49000. A further decline towards 46500-46000 can be seen in the near term.
DAX (23355, -1.02%) has fallen back after failing to break above 24000. A further decline towards 22500-22000 can be seen in the near term.
Nifty (23,866.85, -1.63%) has fallen sharply below 24000, breaking the multi-year support seen since Jun-22. While it remains below 24000, the decline could extend further towards 23500-23000.
Nikkei (53915, -1.46%) tested a high of 55660 and has reversed from there, contrary to our expectations of a rise towards 56000. A fall towards 53500-53000 can be seen in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (4138, +0.13%) has risen and can sustain within the 4200-4050 range for some time.
Crude prices have surged as the Iran conflict intensifies. Brent rising sharply and likely to move towards $ 105-$ 110, while WTI has climbed above $ 90 and can extend gains towards $ 95-$ 100 in the near term. Gold has slipped below $ 5200 but the broader view remains positive for a rise towards $ 5250-$ 5300. Silver has also pulled back after failing near $ 90 yet can still target $ 90-$ 92. Copper has eased and may stay range bound between $ 6.00-$ 5.60 until a clear breakout emerges. Natural Gas has strengthened above $ 3.20 and can move further up towards $ 3.50 in the near term.
Brent ($ 98.79) has bounced back sharply as the Iran war continues, with missiles hitting three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, while new missile volleys have struck Israel. A further rise towards $ 105-$ 110 remains likely in the near term.
WTI ($ 93.23) has bounced back above $ 90 as tensions are heating up in the Strait of Hormuz. A further rise towards $ 95-$ 100 can be seen in the near term.
Gold ($ 5,176.70) has fallen back below $ 5200 but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 5250-$ 5300 in the near term.
Silver ($ 85.52) has fallen back after failing to break above $ 90 but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 90-$ 92 in the near term.
Copper ($ 5.8785) has fallen back and can remain in a range of $ 6.00-$ 5.60 for some time until a breakout on either side provides clearer directional cues.
Natural Gas ($ 3.2630) has risen above $ 3.20 in line with our expectations and can head higher towards $ 3.50 in the near term.
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
2.79 …Previous 2.74
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
1327 …Expectations 1340 …Previous 1404
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -66.1 …Previous -70.3
DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2