Most currencies are likely to trade within a near term range. A breakout on either side would determine the medium term direction. The Dollar Index and Euro continue trade within the 101-99 and 1.1650-1.15 region while the EURINR is trading between 108 and 106.  EURJPY and USDJPY can witness trade in the 186-183/182 and 160.50-158 region while Aussie and Pound are stuck in the 0.68-0.70 and 1.31-1.35 zone. USDCNY is stuck in the 6.85-6.92 region. The USDINR is likely to fall towards 92.50/25 in the near term while below 93.25.Markets await the RBI policy meeting tomorrow where rates are likely to be kept unchanged.

Dollar Index (100.082) could take support near 99.75/50 region and again bounce back to rise higher in the near term. A near term trade range of 101-99 remains intact for now.

EURUSD (1.1530) has been trading within 1.1650-1.15 region for the past few sessions and may continue to do so unless a sharp breakout is seen on either side.

EURINR (107.209) rose while above 106.5 contrary to our expectations of testing 106. Overall a broad 106-108 region may hold for now with some scope for a rise towards 109/110 soon.

EURJPY (184.33) may continue to trade within the 186-183/182 region for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (159.87) has risen slightly but while below 160/161, we may see a dip back towards 158.

USDCNY (6.8787) is likely to trade within 6.85-6.92 region for some more sessions. 

Aussie (0.6901) and Pound (1.3217) have both risen slightly from levels seen yesterday. We may continue to look at near term ranges of 0.68-0.70 and 1.31-1.35 to hold for the near term.

USDINR (93.065) closed above 93 after testing 92.78. We keep intact our view of seeing a dip to 92.50/25 while below 93.25.Markets await RBI policy meeting tomorrow where rates are likely to be kept unchanged.

The US Treasury Yields are coming down again. That keeps alive the chances of testing their support first before resuming the broader uptrend. The German Yields remain lower. They have room to dip further from here. Thereafter they can resume the uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. It can dip further before reversing higher again. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields are coming down again. The support at 4.25%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) can be tested if the yields fall further from here. Thereafter a fresh rise can take them up to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.99%) and 30Yr (3.47%) yields keep alive the chances of seeing 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.35% (30Yr) on the downside first. The broader uptrend can resume thereafter and target 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0458%) has come down sharply. Further fall from here can take it down to 7%-6.95% region. A rise above 7.15% will now be needed to go up to 7.2%

Global equities are trading with mixed momentum and remain near key levels. Dow needs a break above 47000 to strengthen further, otherwise downside towards 46000 remains possible. DAX also requires a move above 23500 to extend gains, else it may slip towards 22500. Nifty has shown strength but needs to cross 23200 to rise towards 23800, while failure can drag it towards 22400. Nikkei remains positive above 52000 and can move towards 55000. Shanghai stays weak below 3950 with downside towards 3850.

Dow (46763, -0.30%) is holding below 47000 and needs a sustained break above this level to rise towards 47500-48000. Otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a decline towards 46000-45000.

DAX (23342, +0.23%) needs a sustained break above 23500-23600 to move higher towards 24000-24500. Otherwise, it can decline towards 22500-22000.

Nifty (22968.25, +1.12%) rose strongly and closed above 22800, contrary to our expectations. Going ahead, a decisive break above 23200 is needed to see a rise towards 23800-24000. Otherwise, a fall towards 22400-22200 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Nikkei (53400, -1.10%) has dipped, but while it holds above 52000, it can rise to break above 54000 and move higher towards 55000-55500.

Shanghai (3,897.09, +0.42%) tested a low of 3871 yesterday. While below 3950, a decline towards 3850-3800 remains likely in the near term.

Crude prices remain strongly bullish as Middle East tensions stay elevated despite peace talks. Brent can rise towards $ 115-$ 120 with further upside to $ 130-$ 150 on a break above $ 120, while WTI may move towards $ 120. Gold remains weak below $ 4800 and can decline towards $ 4500-$ 4400. Silver may fall further towards $ 70-$ 68 below $ 75. Copper needs to hold above $ 5.50 to rise towards $ 5.80-$ 6.00, otherwise it may drop towards $ 5.40-$ 5.20. Natural Gas risks a breakdown below $ 2.80 towards $ 2.75-$ 2.70.

Brent ($ 111.19) continues to rise as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated despite reports of peace talks and a ceasefire. The view remains intact for a rise towards $ 115-$ 120 in the near term. Thereafter, if tensions persist and a break above $ 120 is seen, it could turn further bullish towards $ 130-$ 150 over the coming months.

WTI ($ 115.13) has risen to the mentioned level of $ 115 as expected and can move higher towards $ 120 in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4651.30) remains weak below $ 4800 and while below this level, a decline towards $ 4500-$ 4400 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 72.63) remains weak while below $ 75 and can decline further towards $ 70-$ 68 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.6245) remains above $ 5.50 for now and needs to sustain above this level to see a further rise towards $ 5.80-$ 6.00 in the coming sessions. Otherwise, a break below this can drag it down towards $ 5.40-$ 5.20.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7960) is attempting to break the support near $ 2.80, and a sustained break below this can take the price lower towards $ 2.75-$ 2.70.

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