The Dollar Index trades lower ahead of the FED meeting tonight. The Euro has also stabilized with the ECB policy meeting tomorrow. Both the Dollar Index and Euro may have scope to test 97/96 and 1.18 in the next 1-2 weeks. The EURINR is likely to rise towards 111-112 while the EURJPY and USDJPY may remain broadly ranged within 186-187.50 and 157.50-160 respectively. USDCNY has scope to test 6.855 while above 6.81. Pound and Aussie are likely to trade within 1.3430-1.36 and 0.7250-0.71 region. USDINR needs to fall back below 94.50 towards 94 to avoid a straight rise to 95-95.25 in the next couple of weeks.

Dollar Index (98.60) trades lower. A break below immediate support at 98, if seen will open up chances of a decline to 97/96 region before an eventual rise is seen in the longe run. Watch price action above 98.

EURUSD (1.1716) looks stable ahead of the ECB policy meeting tomorrow. While above 1.16/1.1650, there is scope for a rise towards 1.18.

EURINR (110.8887) has been steadily rising and could soon test 111-112.

EURJPY (186.88) fell sharply to 186.075 yesterday before managing to recover and close higher. We may expect the cross pair to trade within the 186-187.50/188 region for the coming days.

Dollar-Yen (159.59) is stuck within the 157.50-160.50 region and may continue to remain so for the near term.

USDCNY (6.8336) is headed towards 6.855 as expected with interim resistance is seen near 6.8380.

Aussie (0.7173) has dipped from 0.7195 yesterday. We may expect near term trade to continue within the 0.7250-0.71 region for some time.

Pound (1.3516) seems to be holding below 1.3560 and if that holds well, we may see some trade within the 1.3450-1.3560 region in the next 1-2 sessions. Note that 1.36 is an important resistance for the near term.

USDINR (94.5450) has just breached the immediate resistance near 94.50. Now it would be interesting to see if the spot moves higher targeting 95-95.25 or declines from current levels back towards 94. Today and tomorrow are the two sessions left for this week as Indian markets are closed on 1st May.

The US Treasury Yields look mixed with an overall possibility of rising while the German yields have risen comparatively well. The FED policy meeting is due tonight and the ECB policy meeting is due tomorrow where the key rates are expected to be maintained but the markets are on the look out for any cues for rate hikes during the rest of the year. The 10Yr GOI yield has scope to test 7-7.05% while above 6.95% as it has managed to rise again and close higher yesterday. Only a break below 6.95% if seen again would drag it lower towards 6.90%.

The US 10Yr (4.348%) has risen slightly while the 30Yr (4.937%) has dipped ahead of the US FOMC tonight where the markets expect the rates to remain unchanged. The 10yr and the 30yr yield needs to break above the immediate resistance at 4.35% and 4.95% respectively to head towards 4.37/40% and 4.97% respectively. But we need to be cautious to see if the resistances can instead hold and take the yields lower initially or not.

The German 10Yr (3.0711%) and 30Yr (3.6924%) yields have continued to rise yesterday. With the ECB policy meeting tomorrow and the markets are looking for any cues of rate hikes in the rest of the year, the yields are likely to remain higher. The 10Yr and 30Yr yields may be headed towards 3.15/20% and 3.70/75% respectively in the coming sessions.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9837%) has managed to rise and close above 6.95% yesterday. The yield needs a sustained trade above 6.95% to head towards 7-7.05% in the coming sessions else a fall back to 6.90% could come into the picture. Watch price action while above 6.95%. A slow rise looks more probable.

Dow remains flat below 50000 and can decline towards 49000-48500, while DAX may test 24000 while below 24500. Nifty has slipped below 24000 and needs to reclaim it to resume gains towards 24400-24600, otherwise downside towards 23800-23600 remains possible. Nikkei has also weakened below 60000 and may fall towards 59000-58500 if it fails to recover. Shanghai remains vulnerable to a decline towards 4000 while below 4115.

Dow (49394, +0.20%) remains flat and can decline towards 49000-48500 in the near term while below 50000.

DAX (24141, -0.11%) is falling and can test 24000 in the near term while below 24500.

Nifty (23,995.70, -0.40%) has slipped below 24000, contrary to our expectations. It needs to reclaim 24000 to resume its upward move towards 24400-24600, otherwise a sharper decline towards 23800-23600 can be seen.

Nikkei (59435, +0.46%) has dipped back below 60000 contrary to our expectations, and if it sustains below this level, the earlier mentioned rise towards 61000-62000 may not take place, with a decline towards 59000-58500 possible instead.

Shanghai (4079.2, +0.01%) has risen, but while below 4115, our earlier mentioned fall towards 4000 remains likely in the near term.

Crude prices remain bullish with Brent likely to rise towards $ 115-$ 120 and WTI towards $ 105-$ 110 in the near term. Precious metals remain under pressure, with Gold vulnerable to a deeper fall towards $ 4550-$ 4500 on a break below $ 4600, while Silver may decline towards $ 70 before a possible bounce back. Copper is weakening but may stay range bound within $ 6.00-$ 5.80 while support holds. Natural Gas is likely to continue trading within the $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for now.

Brent ($ 111.73) is moving up in line with our expectations and can head higher towards $ 115-$ 120 in the near term.

WTI ($ 100.41) has risen to $ 100 in line with our expectations and can move higher towards $ 105-$ 110 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4598.60) has dipped in line with our expectations and a sustained break below $ 4600 can drag the price further down towards $ 4550-$ 4500.

Silver ($ 73.69) is falling and can decline towards $ 70 in the near term, from where a bounce back can be seen.

Copper ($ 5.9975) is falling and while above $ 5.80, a range of $ 6.00-$ 5.80 can hold for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 2.6760) can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.

GMT 1:30 IST 01:30 AU CPI
…Market 4.8 …Previous 3.7

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
95.2 …Market 95.5 Previous 96.6

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
1393 …Market 1400 …Previous 1376

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Dur Goods Orders
2.5 …Previous 0.5 …Previous -1.4

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Market 2.25 …Previous 2.25

GMT 23:30 IST 23:30 JP Unemp
…Market 2.6 …Previous 2.60

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Market 0.75 …Previous 0.75

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
…Market 4.2 …Previous 5.2

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
0.60 …Market 1.0 …Previous 1.20

{GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
85.15 …Market 89.4 …Previous 91.80