The Dollar Index has dipped within 99-98 region while Euro has scope to rise to 1.18/1.1850. The EURINR is likely to rise towards 112-112.50 while the EURJPY and USDJPY may attempt to rise after a sharp fall seen last week on BOJ currency intervention. We expect the pairs to remin above 182 and 157 respectively. USDCNY has dipped too and could test 6.81 before bouncing back again towards 6.8550. Pound has dipped below 1.36 and could have scope to test 1.35/34 while Aussie can test 0.7250 before facing any rejection towards 0.71. USDINR needs to fall back below 94.75 to head towards 94.50/30. We expect immediate upside to be capped at 95-95.25.

Dollar Index (98.193) has declined ack within the 99-98 region. A break below 98, if seen will trigger a fall to 97. Watch price action in he near term.

EURUSD (1.1724) has risen back and could test 1.18-1.1850 before pausing for a dip again.

EURINR (111.31) has broken well above 111 and is now headed towards 112-112.50. It will be crucial to see if the pair will face rejection from 112.50 or manage to rally further up.

EURJPY (184.25) fell sharply to test 182 after BOJ intervention and a sharp decline in USDJPY but has bounced back from there. While above 182, we may expect a slow and steady rise in EURJPY towards 187/188 again.

Dollar-Yen (157.07) saw sharp decline from levels near 160.73 due to intervention from the Japanese central bank. It would be crucial to see if the price can fall below 157 or will it continue to trade within the 157-160.50 region. Below 157, there is scope to test 154/153 in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.8268) could have interim resistance near 6.855 and higher near 6.87 below which there is scope for the currency to fall back towards 6.81 in the near term. Unless a decisive break is seen above 6.855 or below 6.80, we may expect 6.81-6.8550 region to hold.

Aussie (0.7206) has risen above 0.72 and is likely to rise further to test 0.7250 or a maximum of 0.73 before facing any rejection from there which can take the price back towards 0.71.

Pound (1.3583) has declined back below 1.36 after rising sharply higher last week. While below 1.36, there is scope for a fall to 1.35/34 in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down towards the end of last week. While there is room to fall further supports are there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the broader view remains bullish for both the German and US Treasury Yields. They can rise back and go higher after testing their support. The 10Yr GoI has risen well above a key intermediate resistance. While this rise sustains, the yield can rise more in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.37%) and 30Yr (4.96%) Treasury yields have come down towards the end of last week. But while above 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr), the bias is bullish. The yields can rise back towards 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr)

The German 10Yr (3.03%) and 30Yr (3.54%) yields have come down sharply on Friday. The support at 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) can be tested. While above these supports, the bias is positive to see a rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0148%) has risen above 7%. While this rise sustains, the upside is open to see 7.1% and even higher levels going forward. Supports are at 7% and then in the 6.95%-6.9% region.

Dow remains vulnerable to a decline towards 48500-48000. DAX may stay range bound between 23500-25000 for some time. Nifty is also likely to trade within a broad 24500-23500 range, reflecting consolidation. Nikkei remains capped below 60000 and may decline towards 59000-58500 if it fails to break higher. Shanghai continues to stay relatively firm with upside towards 4125-4150.

Dow (49596, -0.11%) can decline towards 48500-48000 in the near term.

DAX (24456, -0.02%) has bounced back sharply from the low of 23729. A broad range of 23500-25000 can hold for some time.

Nifty (23,997.55, -0.74%) tested a low of 23796.85 and bounced back from there to close near 24000 on Friday. Our earlier mentioned broad range of 24500-23500 could hold for some time.

Nikkei (59870, +0.71%) remains below 60000 and needs to sustain below this level to see a decline towards 59000-58500.

Shanghai (4112.2, +0.11%) can rise towards 4125-4150 in the near term.

Crude prices have turned volatile and corrected sharply. Brent likely to remain within a broad $ 100-$ 120 range and WTI within $ 95-$ 115 until clearer direction emerges. Precious metals remain under pressure, with Gold vulnerable towards $ 4550-$ 4500 and Silver towards $ 70 before a possible bounce back. Copper is likely to stay range bound within $ 6.00-$ 5.80. Natural Gas is strengthening but may continue to trade within the broader $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for now.

Brent ($ 107.75) has fallen back sharply contrary to our expectations. The market may remain volatile and a broad range of $ 100-$ 120 can hold for some time until further directional clarity emerges.

WTI ($ 101.16) has also fallen back sharply contrary to our expectations. A range of $ 95-$ 115 can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 4617.60) remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 4550-$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 76.21) can decline towards $ 70 in the near term, from where a bounce back can be seen.

Copper ($ 5.9950) can remain within a range of $ 6.00-$ 5.80 for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 2.83) is rising and can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
…Market 54.9 …Previous 51.6

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK PMI
…Market 53.3 …Previous 51.0 …Actual 53.6

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 50.0

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
50.8 …Market 53.2 …Previous 52.7

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PMI
51.3 …Market 51.0 …Previous 50.8 …Actual 52.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Unemp
…Market 6.2 …Previous 6.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.2 …Market 3.0 …Previous 2.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash GDP

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 BOE Mtg
…Market 3.75 …Previous 3.75

GMT 11:45 IST 17:15 ECB Mtg
…Market 2.15 …Previous 2.15

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
0.2 …Market 0.3 …Previous -0.1

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE Price Index
0.2 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.4

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
…Market 2.2 …Previous 0.7 …Actual 0.5

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA GDP
…Market 0.20 …Previous 0.10