Most currencies look ranged within specific levels. The Dollar Index and Euro are likely to trade within 99.50-98.50 and 1.17-1.1550 region while USDJPY may face rejection near 160-160.50 and dip back towards 159/158. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7250 and 1.35-1.33 regions respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region. EURINR is headed towards 113 while USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for the rest of the week. USDINR has scope to hold below 97 and dip towards 96.50 or lower.

Dollar Index (99.13) is likely to maintain trade between 98.50-99.50 region for the near term while the EURUSD (1.1626) has bounced back to trade above 1.16 and could be headed towards 1.1650.

EURINR (112.5861) has risen well above 112.50 and if the rise sustains it can very well test 113 soon. 111.70 is an important near term support for the currency pair.

EURJPY (184.70) has risen within the 185-184 region contrary to our expectations of seeing a fall to 184. For the pair to continue upward momentum, a sustained rise above 185.50 is needed.

Dollar-Yen (158.88) has scope to test 160 or higher before a sharp reversal is seen. The overall view is bullish to ranged above 158.

USDCNY (6.7984) has fallen yet again to the lower end of the 6.83-6.79 region mentioned yesterday. The range may continue to hold till we see a decisive breakout on either side.

Aussie (0.7117) is expected to remain above immediate support at 0.71 and move up eventually to 0.72/7250.

Pound (1.3429) has fallen within our expected range of 1.35-1.33 and could head lower in the next few sessions before bouncing back again.

USDINR (96.83) , tested an all time high of 96.96 yesterday before closing lower. We may expect a dip towards 96.50/25 while below 97.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down sharply following the fall in oil price. The Treasury yields are just above their key support. They have to bounce back from here to avoid more fall and go higher. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields have come down below their key levels and can fall more in the coming days. The expected rise will get delayed now. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to breach its resistance. A near-term dip looks likely to be seen first before the next leg of rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.58%) and 30Yr (5.12%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) are key support which have to hold to avoid further fall to 4.45% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). While these supports hold, the broader bullish view will remain intact.

The German 10Yr (3.09%) and 30Yr (3.63%) yields have come down below their key levels of 3.15% and 3.7% respectively. They can fall to 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.5% (30Yr) in the near-term. The expected rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.8%-3.9% (30Yr) will get delayed now.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0745) seems to be struggling to breach 7.15%. So, a test of 7.05% or even 7% can happen first before the rise to 7.25% is seen.

Dow has bounced back sharply but remains vulnerable to a fall towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range, with risks of a deeper decline towards 48000 needing close watch. DAX outlook remains mixed with equal chances of rising towards 25000-25200 or falling towards 24000-23800. Nifty has strengthened above 23,600 and can rise further towards 23,800 if the support holds. Nikkei has rebounded sharply contrary to expectations and may extend gains towards 62500-63000. Shanghai remains mildly positive above 4150 and can rise towards 4200, but a sustained break higher is needed for stronger bullishness.

Dow (50,000, -0.18%) has bounced back sharply, but the view remains for a fall towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range. The risk of an extended decline towards 48000 or lower needs to be watched closely.

DAX (24810.65, +0.16%) remains mixed and has equal chances of either rising towards 25000-25200 or falling towards 24000-23800.

Nifty (23,659.00, +0.17%) has managed to rise above 23,600 yesterday. If it sustains above this level, a further rise towards 23,800 can be seen in the near term.

Nikkei (61900.18, +0.42%) has bounced back sharply from the low of 59350, contrary to our expectations. A further rise towards 62500-63000 can be seen in the near term.

Shanghai (4187.15, +0.57%) can rise towards 4200 while holding above 4150. Thereafter, a break above 4200 is needed for a sustained rise and to turn convincingly bullish.

Brent and WTI declined sharply amid hopes of a possible US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the broader outlook remains bullish for a rise towards $ 115-$ 120. Gold and Silver continue to remain bearish and can fall further towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively. Copper has seen a bounce, but while below $ 6.60, a decline towards $ 6.00 remains likely. Natural Gas needs a sustained rise above $ 3.25 to strengthen further towards $ 3.50 or higher.

Brent ($ 105.31) and WTI ($ 98.80) declined sharply on Wednesday amid hopes of a possible peace deal to end the US-Iran war, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 115-$ 120 in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4565.80) and Silver ($ 76.85) remain bearish towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively.

Copper ($ 6.34) has bounced back, but while below $ 6.60, it can test $ 6.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0350) needs a sustained rise above $ 3.25 to gain further bullish momentum towards $ 3.50 or higher.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Market 15.70 …Previous 17.88

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU Flash Manufacturing PMI
…Market 51.8 …Previous 52.2

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK Flash Manufacturing PMI
53.5 …Market 53.0 …Previous 53.7

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
…Market 1400 …Previous 1502

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
0.16 …Market 17.90 …Previous 26.70

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
2.75 …Market 3.00 …Previous 3.30 …Actual 2.82

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
4.06 …Market 3.00 …Previous 3.04 …Actual 3.03