The Dollar Index holds strong above 99, pulling back Euro towards 1.16. A dip below 1.16 would open door for further fall to 1.1550. USDJPY may rise towards 160-160.50 where it can face rejection. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7250 and 1.35-1.33 regions respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region for now while the EURINR has come off sharply to 111.70 on decline in USDINR yesterday. It would be crucial to see if it can bounce back or head lower towards 111. USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for some more time. USDINR fell to 96 as expected. A further decline below 96 is needed for a dip to 95.50.
Dollar Index (99.256) is holding well above 99. It tested 99.515 before coming off slightly. A break above 99.50 can take it higher towards 100.
EURUSD (1.1611) has dipped from 1.1650 over the last 2 sessions. Further rise in the dollar index of seen can take the Euro down towards 1.1550. Watch price action near 1.16.
EURINR (111.7344) has fallen sharply to our mentioned support at 111.70. It would be crucial to watch if the cross pair can decline further from here towards 111 or bounce back towards 112-112.50 in the coming sessions.
EURJPY (184.70) is holding below 185 for now. We may expect the 185-184 region to hold in the near term.
Dollar-Yen (159.08) has risen above 159. The pair could slowly move up further towards 160-160.50.
USDCNY (6.8002) has dipped within the 6.83-6.79 region mentioned yesterday. We may expect this range to hold for the near term.
Aussie (0.7140) is expected to remain above immediate support at 0.71 and move up eventually to 0.72/7250.
Pound (1.3426) is likely to trade within the 1.35-1.33 range for the near term with slightly bearish bias.
USDINR (96.20) , indeed held below 97 and fell sharply to test 96 yesterday before moving up to close higher. A break below 96 is needed for a further dip to 95.50 in the near term.
The US Treasury and the German Yields remain lower. The Treasury yields are poised near their support. They have to rise back immediately to avoid more fall going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields on the other hand have room to dip further before they resume their broader upmove. The 10Yr GoI has held well above its support as expected and has risen back sharply. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it further higher.
The US 10Yr (4.57%) and 30Yr (5.10%) Treasury yields remain lower. They have to sustain above 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) and rise back immediately to avoid the fall to 4.45% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.
The German 10Yr (3.1%) and 30Yr (3.62%) yields remain below their respective supports of 3.15% and 3.7%. A test of 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.5% (30Yr) is possible before they resume their upmove. As mentioned yesterday the expected rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.8%-3.9% (30Yr) will get delayed.
The 10Yr GoI (7.1134) has risen back sharply from the low of 7.0194%. The support at 7% has held well as expected. A follow-through rise and a break above 7.15% can take it up to 7.25%.
Dow has turned bullish after breaking above 50200 and can rise further towards 51000-51500 if it sustains above 50000. DAX is testing 25000, and a break higher can take it towards 25500, while failure may drag it back towards 23500. Nifty failed to hold above 23,800 but remains stable above 23,600, keeping the possibility open for another rise towards 23,800-24,000. Nikkei continues to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards 64000. Shanghai has weakened sharply contrary to expectations and remains vulnerable to a fall towards 4050-4000.
Dow (50,498, +0.24%) has surged above 50200, contrary to our expectations, due to optimism surrounding a possible US-Iran peace agreement. If it sustains above 50000, a further rise towards 51000-51500 can be seen.
DAX (24920.65, +0.73%) rose to a high of 24965 yesterday. It remains to be seen whether it can surpass 25000 and move higher towards 25500, or fall back towards 23500.
Nifty (23,654.70, -0.02%) tested a high of 23,860 before falling back sharply but remains above 23,600. While it stays above 23,600, it may attempt to rise again towards 23,800-24,000 in the coming weeks.
Nikkei (63015.18, +1.29%) has risen in line with our expectations and can continue to rise further towards 64000.
Shanghai (4087.85, +0.28%) plunged to a low of 4074.21 yesterday, contrary to our expectations, and remains vulnerable to a further decline towards 4050-4000.
Crude prices remain weak in the near term, but the broader outlook still supports a rise towards $ 115-$ 120. Gold and Silver continue to remain bearish and can decline further towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively. Copper remains weak below $ 6.60 and may test $ 6.00 in the near term. Natural Gas has higher and while it holds above $ 3, a rise towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 can be seen in the coming sessions.
Brent ($ 104.53) and WTI ($ 97.77) remain weak, but our view of a rise towards $ 115-$ 120 remains intact for the near term.
Gold ($ 4528.10) and Silver ($ 76.81) remain weak and can decline further towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively in the near term.
Copper ($ 6.35) can test $ 6.00 in the near term while remaining below $ 6.60.
Natural Gas ($ 3.13) has opened higher near $ 3.13, and while it holds above $ 3, a rise towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 can be seen in the coming sessions.
GMT 23:01 IST 04:31 UK Cons Conf
…Market -28 …Previous -25
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
…Market 1.70 …Previous 1.44
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Market 84.0 …Previous 84.4
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Market 83.5 …Previous 83.3
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Market 15.70 …Previous 23.33 …Actual -18.63
GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU Flash Manufacturing PMI
…Market 51.8 …Previous 52.2 …Actual 51.4
GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK Flash Manufacturing PMI
53.5 …Market 53.0 …Previous 53.7 …Actual 53.7
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
…Market 1400 …Previous 1502
{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
0.16 …Market 17.90 …Previous 26.70