Most currencies may remain stable for the near term with a few of them likely to strengthen against the Dollar. The Dollar Index can trade between 98.80-99.50 while Euro is likely to remain stuck in the 1.16-1.17 region. EURINR is falling towards 110-109.90 while EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 186.50 and 160, respectively before facing rejection later. USDCNY is headed towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7220 and 1.3350-1.35, respectively. USDINR will have to break below 95 to bring in 94.80/50 into the picture; else can bounce back from current levels towards 95.50.

Dollar Index (99.055) has support near 98.80 above which there can be chances of a rise to 99.50 in the near term. A break below 98.80 is needed for any decline to come into the picture.

EURUSD (1.1644) is likely to trade within the 1.16-1.17 region broadly.

EURINR (110.5080) has been slowly inching lower. A test of 110-109.90 looks possible before the price can bounce back towards 110.50-111 or higher.

EURJPY (185.70) has scope to rise to 186-186.50 in the coming sessions before facing a rejection later towards 185.

Dollar-Yen (159.48) has support near 159, above which it has scope to rise towards 160 or higher in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (6.7675) has been falling as expected and could test 6.75 soon.

Aussie (0.7183) has scope to test 0.7215-0.7220 before falling towards 0.71 in the medium term.

Pound (1.3450) is likely to trade within the 1.3350-1.35 region for the upcoming sessions unless a breakout is seen on either side of the mentioned range.

USDINR (95.00) fell to close at 95 on Friday, falling sharply almost at the close of the session. If the spot continues to break below 95, then 94.80/50 will come into the picture. Watch price action at 95.

The US Treasury Yields are bouncing back from their support. If it sustains, they can rise more and avoid the extended fall that we had mentioned earlier. The German Yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They have room to test their support after which a fresh rise is possible. The 10Yr GoI is hovering around 7%. A sustained rise from here is needed to avoid the fall that we are expecting to happen first.

The US 10Yr (4.47%) and 30Yr (5%) Treasury yields are bouncing back from their respective supports of 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr). If this sustains, 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) and even higher levels can be seen. That can avoid the fall to 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.94%) and 30Yr (3.5%) yields have dipped further. They can test 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) and then resume their upmove towards 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (7.0037%) is hovering around 7%. As mentioned earlier a sustained rise above 7.05% is needed to avoid the fall to 6.9% and go higher from here itself. We will have to wait and see.

Dow and DAX remain constructive, with Dow likely to rise towards 51500-52000 and DAX targeting 26000 while holding above 25000. Nifty has turned weak after failing to sustain above 24,000 and may decline further towards 23,300-23,200 while below 23,600. Nikkei continues to move higher in line with expectations and can extend gains towards 67500-68000. Shanghai remains under pressure and can decline further towards 4025-4000 in the near term.

Dow (51,128.70, +0.11%) is moving higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards 51500-52000 in the near term.

DAX (25,163.10, -0.05%) is holding above 25000, and while it remains above this level, the view stays intact for a rise towards 26000.

Nifty (23,547.75, -1.50%) failed to sustain above 24,000 and declined sharply below 23,600 on Friday. While it remains below 23,600, a further fall towards 23,300-23,200 can be seen in the coming week.

Nikkei (67030.46, +1.13%) has moved higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards 67500-68000 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (4054.68, -0.25%) has fallen back in line with our alternate expectations. A further decline towards 4025-4000 can be seen in the near term.

Brent and WTI continue to weaken in line with expectations and can decline further towards $ 90 and $ 85 respectively, supported by optimism surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire extension and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold and Silver have rebounded after testing key lows, and if these supports hold, they can rise further towards $ 4600-$ 4700 and $ 80-$ 82 respectively. Copper remains positive while above $ 6.25 and can advance towards $ 6.60. Natural Gas has exceeded expectations on the upside and can extend gains further towards $ 3.50-$ 3.75 in the near term.

Brent ($ 93.35) and WTI ($ 89.94) have fallen in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 90 and $ 85 respectively in the near term. Prices remain under pressure after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days, fueling optimism that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen soon.

Gold ($ 4561.00) and Silver ($ 75.91) tested lows of $ 4395 and $ 72 respectively in line with our expectations and have since bounced back. If these levels hold, a further rise towards $ 4600-$ 4700 and $ 80-$ 82 respectively can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.45) has scope to rise towards $ 6.60 while remaining above $ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3640) has risen above our expected levels and can move higher towards $ 3.50-$ 3.75 in the near term.

NO MAJOR DATA RELEASED TODAY.

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Market 2.70 …Previous 2.70

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN GDP
7.7% …Previous 7.8%

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
…Previous 4.1

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA GDP
…Market 0.10 …Previous 0.20