The Dollar index trades Higher today, heading back towards 100 while Euro can test 1.15. EURINR has dipped but the fall looks temporary before resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY and EURJPY are likey in a temporary correction phase post wich upmove can resume. Aussie, Pound and USDINR all have scope for an initial decline for the next few sessions before resuming the long term uptrend. USDCNY continues to look bearish

Dollar Index (99.594) has risen well, breaking above 99.50, contrary to expectations. We may expect a near-term rise to 99.75-100 region. Medium term direction remains unclear at the moment.

EURUSD (1.1538) has broken below 1.1550 and if it sustains, we may expect a further dip towards 1.15.

Dollar-Yen (154.74) needs to continuously move up from here to avoid a decline towards 153-152 which looks more likely at the moment.

EURJPY (178.56) has come off slightly but has scope to rise towards 180.25-180.50 in the next few sessions

EURINR (110.5834) came off from 111.2056 itself. However we may see a near term dip in the cros pair before resumption of a rise towards 111.50-112.00.

USDCNY (6.7102) trades above 6.71 but the upward correction looks temporary before a fall is expected towards 6.70.

Aussie (0.7127) has scope to see an initial decline to 0.71-0.7050 before rising back again to higher levels of 0.72-0.73.

Pound (1.3487) has support in the 1.35-1.3450 region which is likely to hold and produce a bounce back towards 1.3550/36. Failure to bounce from 1.3450 would open chances of decline towards 1.33/32 in the medium term.

USDINR (95.5550) could have scope to correct itself to 95.30/25 in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to hold higher. The Treasury Yields can rise more if they breach their immediate resistance. The German Yields have room to rise more and continue to remain bullish. The 10Yr GoI has risen above 7%. That keeps intact our bullish view. The 10Yr GoI can rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.99%) and 30Yr (5.35%) yields are holding higher. A rise above 5% (10Yr) and 5.4% (30Yr) can take them further higher to 5.1%-5.2% (10Yr) and 5.5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.51%) and 30Yr (3.86%) Yields remain higher. The outlook is bullish. While above 3.5%, the 10Yr can rise to 3.6%. The 30Yr has room to see 4%-4.1% on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0233%) has risen above 7%. Our bullish view of seeing 7.1%-7.15% on the upside remains intact.

Dow has bounced from 52000 support but faces resistance near 53500. DAX needs a break below 25300 to decline towards 25000. Nifty remains weak below 23500 and can decline towards 23000 unless it breaks above 23500-23600. Nikkei remains vulnerable towards 63000-62000 while below 65000. Shanghai has held above 3850 and can rise towards 3950-4000.

Dow (52806.03, -0.10%) has held well above the support at 52000 and bounced back over the last couple of sessions. The rise could be capped by immediate resistance near 53500, keeping it range-bound between 52000-53500.

DAX (25492.10, +0.24%) is failing to break below 25300 and needs a break below this level to see a fall towards the earlier mentioned level of 25000.

Nifty (23,398.10, -0.34%) moved sharply higher and tested a high of 23448 before closing lower. It needs to move above 23500-23600 to turn bullish. Otherwise, while it remains below 23500, it has scope to decline further towards 23000 in the coming week.

Nikkei (63950.56, +1.22%) has risen but remains vulnerable to a decline towards 63000-62000 in the near term while below 65000.

Shanghai (3888.45, +0.08%) has held above 3850 in line with our expectations and bounced back to current levels. A further rise towards 3950-4000 can be seen within the 3850-4000 range.

Brent and WTI have fallen after testing $ 110 and $ 105, while breaks above these levels could trigger further gains. Gold needs to hold above $ 4300 to retain upside potential towards $ 4600. Silver remains weak and can decline towards $ 60. Copper has fallen sharply and can decline further towards $ 6.30-$ 6.25. Natural Gas is likely to remain range-bound between $ 2.80-$ 3.00.

Brent ($ 106.91) and WTI ($ 102.68) have tested $ 110 and $ 105 as expected before falling back. A break above these levels would take prices higher towards $ 115-$ 120 and $ 110-$ 115 respectively.

Gold ($ 4346.60) needs to hold above the support near $ 4300. This would keep alive the chances of a rise towards $ 4600. Otherwise, a break below $ 4300 would drag the price towards $ 4200-$ 4000.

Silver ($ 63.95) has fallen in line with our expectations and remains vulnerable to a further decline towards $ 60.

Copper ($ 6.39) has fallen sharply in line with our expectations and tested a low of $ 6.35. A further decline towards $ 6.30-$ 6.25 looks likely in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8750) can continue to trade within the $ 2.80-$ 3.00 range.

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expected 0.7% …Previous 0.6 % …Actual-0.4%

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expected 4.8 % …Previous 4.5 % …Actual 5.2%

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
…Expectedd 4.9 % …Previous 4.9 %

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
…Expected 3.7 EURBLN …Previous 1.8 EURBln

9:30 15:00 IN Trade bal
Expn. -33.3$ BLN …Previous -32.0 $ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————-
IN WPI
Expn. 8.9 % …Expected 9.9 % …Previous 9.8 % …Actual 9.9 %

IN CPI
Expn.4.7 % …Expected 4.8 % …Previous 4.44 % …Actual 4.82%

CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 3.0% …Expected 3.0% …Actual 3.0%