SGX Nifty October 2026 futures have increased by 31 points, indicating a favourable start for the Nifty 50. US President Donald Trump stated on Sunday, 11 October, that Russia and Ukraine had reached an immediate “energy ceasefire,” intended to stop assaults on energy infrastructure. However, the announcement was deficient in specifics regarding the terms and duration of the proposed truce, and neither party had validated the agreement at the time of reporting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Kyiv was ready to accept a ceasefire contingent upon Moscow’s agreement. The development arises in the context of increasing assaults on energy infrastructure and apprehensions regarding interruptions to global fuel supplies.
Meanwhile, Russia has partially lifted its diesel export ban effective 10 October, following an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump to supply diesel to the US and international markets. The decision permits the supply of up to 500,000 metric tonnes of diesel to international markets at this juncture, as reported by sources referencing the Russian government. Trump had earlier announced plans for Russia to supply more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and additional volumes thereafter. However, analysts have raised concerns regarding the adequacy of increased supplies to significantly alleviate global fuel prices, particularly in light of persistent disruptions to refining capacity.
On 10 October 2026, the Reserve Bank of India implemented a range of measures aimed at maintaining the orderly operation of the foreign exchange market in response to the pressures facing the rupee. The central bank has initiated a special window, effective 12 October, to fulfilll the complete daily US dollar needs of three state-owned oil marketing companies: Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, via designated banks. The facility will remain operational until further notice. In distinct circulars, the RBI has prohibited the rebooking of cancelled rupee-linked foreign exchange derivative contracts, while permitting rollovers upon maturity in accordance with existing regulations. It also lowered the threshold for assuming foreign exchange derivative positions without the necessity of establishing underlying exposure from $100 million to $5 million, applicable to both contracted exposures hedged through authorised dealers and exchange-traded currency derivatives involving the rupee.
The RBI further mandated that authorised dealers secure an undertaking from users, affirming that the same underlying exposure had not been hedged with another authorised dealer. Additionally, it established a Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve requirement for qualifying rupee-linked foreign exchange derivative contracts with a notional value surpassing $2 million. Under the rule, authorised dealers are required to maintain a cash reserve with the RBI that is equivalent to 20% of the rupee value of each eligible contract. The requirement pertains to contracts utilised for hedging current-account transactions wherein the user acquires foreign currency in exchange for the rupee. The measures aim to enhance market discipline and risk management while facilitating the orderly operation of the foreign exchange market.
Institutional Flows:
On 9 October 2026, foreign portfolio investors divested shares amounting to Rs 3,568.90 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors recorded net purchases totalling Rs 4,743.26 crore in the Indian equity market, as per provisional data. Foreign Portfolio Investors divested shares amounting to Rs 45,125.67 crore in October, as of 9 October 2026. This follows net selling of Rs 45,536.89 crore in September 2026, while FPIs were net buyers of Rs 17,366 crore in August 2026.
Global Markets:
US stock futures indicated a favourable start on Monday, as Dow futures increased by 174 points. However, investors exhibited a degree of caution in anticipation of critical US inflation data and the commencement of the September-quarter earnings season. Asian indices exhibited a mixed performance on Monday, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious stance ahead of forthcoming corporate earnings. Japan’s cash equity market was closed in observance of Sports Day. US stocks concluded the trading session on Friday with an upward trajectory, as all three principal indices experienced gains and recorded positive performance for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 423.31 points, representing a rise of 0.83%, reaching a level of 51,654.95.
The S&P 500 increased by 46.18 points, representing a rise of 0.59%, reaching a level of 7,811.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite saw an advancement of 172.83 points, equivalent to a 0.64% increase, culminating at 27,366.17. Crude oil prices experienced a decline on Monday, influenced by expectations of increased Russian diesel supplies and the prospect of a potential energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which alleviated some apprehensions regarding supply disruptions. Brent crude futures declined approximately 1.5% to $103.18 per barrel. However, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and assaults on shipping routes maintained supply risks at the forefront of discussions.
Domestic Market:
The primary equity benchmarks concluded the trading session on Friday with notable gains, effectively breaking a two-day decline. Easing crude oil prices and improved global sentiment have bolstered investor appetite in the wake of Thursday’s significant selloff. The decision by US President Donald Trump to exclude a military strike on Iran prior to the 3 November midterm elections alleviated immediate apprehensions regarding potential escalation in the Middle East.
Sentiment was bolstered by robust purchasing activity in IT stocks following the Q2 FY27 results announcement from Tata Consultancy Services. The Nifty concluded the trading session above the 22,500 threshold, with all sectoral indices on the NSE registering gains, with the exception of the Nifty Oil & Gas index. The S&P BSE Sensex experienced an increase of 879.09 points, reflecting a rise of 1.23%, reaching a level of 72,472.33. The Nifty 50 index increased by 288.65 points, representing a rise of 1.30%, reaching a level of 22,520.45.
