Dollar Index trades higher and may continue to rise towards 102-102.50 before coming off and to that extent, Euro can also fall to 1.0950-1.09 before reversing higher. Aussie can rise to 0.67 or higher while and Pound can rise to 1.29 which if holds can take Pound back towards 1.28/27. However, a break above 1.29 will be bullish towards 1.30. USDCNY can test 7.12/10 before moving higher while USDRUB can rise towards 94. EURJPY has recovered the fall seen last week and is headed towards 158 again while USDJPY can rise towards 142-143. EURINR looks bullish above support near 90. USDINR may move up while above 82.20
Dollar Index (101.75) trades higher and could possibly limit its immediate upside to 102-102.50 before a sharp reversal is seen towards 101 or lower.
EURUSD (1.1013) may hold below 1.1050 and fall towards 1.0970-1.0950 in the near term. It would be important to see if it can hold above 1.0950 and slowly move higher or break lower to head towards 1.09.
EURJPY (156.07) has risen well over the last 2-sessions, recovering the fall to 151.417. The pair can re-test 158 on the upside in the next few sessions.
Dollar-Yen (141.69) has risen well over the last 2-sessions recovering from the fall to 138. There is now scope for a rise towards 142-143 soon.
USDCNY (7.1441) can test immediate support near 7.12/10 which if holds can keep the pair within 7.10-7.20 for some time. Else a break below 7.10, if seen would be bearish towards 7.05/00 in the medium term.
Pound (1.2853) has risen well but needs to break and sustain above 1.29 to move higher towards 1.30. Immediate downside could be limited to 1.2730-1.2750.
Aussie (0.6678) can rise to 0.67 which if breaks further can take it towards 0.6750. Immediate support at 0.66 seems to be holding well for now.
USDRUB (92.350) has moved up well and while above 92, the Rouble seems to be strongly depreciating against the Dollar and could target 94-94.50 soon.
USDINR (82.2525) moved up sharply to test 82.3375 on Friday but managed to close slightly lower. There is still scope for the pair to move up towards 82.30/60 while above 82.20. It would be crucial to watch price action while above 82.20.
EURINR (90.5530) has important support at 90 which is likely to hold in the near term and could take the pair higher towards 91+ soon.
The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. A strong sustained rise is needed from here to move up. Else they can fall back in the coming days. The German yields are coming closer to the upper end of their respective range. It will have to be seen if they can break the range on the upside or not. The 10Yr and 5Yr have risen very well and can rise more as expected. The Cup and Handle bullish pattern mentioned earlier is working out very well.
The US 10Yr (3.97%) and the 30Yr (4.03%) have dipped slightly. A sustained rise above 4% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) is needed to see more on the upside. Else the yields can fall back to 3.85%-3.8% (10Yr) and 3.9%-3.85% (30Yr) going forward.
The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) have inched up slightly. The 10Yr is at the upper end of its 2.1%-2.5% range. Need to see if it can breach 2.5% or not. The 30Yr has room to rise within its 2.1%-2.65% range.
The 10Yr GoI (7.1614%) has risen sharply and is heading up towards 7.2% as expected.
The 5Yr GOI (7.1486%) is rising towards 7.15%-7.2% in line with our expectation. Support will now be at 7.1%.
Dow needs to rise past the resistance at 35550 to avoid a corrective fall from here. DAX looks bullish for the near term. Nifty has scope to test its immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Nikkei and Shanghai have broken above their resistance at 33000 and 3250 respective and looks bullish to move up further from here.
Dow (35459.29, +0.50%) is hovering around the 35550 resistance. A strong break above this resistance is needed to see 36000. Else a fall to 34800-34500 can happen first before a fresh rally happens.
DAX (16469.75, +0.39%) is heading up towards 16600 in line with our expectation. The upside can extend up to 16800-17000 as well.
Nifty (19646.05, -0.07% can test the support in the 19500-19400 region and then rise back again.
Nikkei (33315.33, +1.70%) has risen sharply breaking above the upper end of the 33000-32000 range. It can now rise towards 33750-34000.
Shanghai (3296.98, +0.64%) has surged breaking above the resistance at 3250. If the break sustains, it can rise further towards 3400.
Brent is near its crucial resistance at $ 85. Needs to see if it breaks above it or not. WTI remains bullish for a test of $ 82-83. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2000. Silver has rebounded but needs to surpass the hurdle at 24.65-24.85 to avoid the danger of falling again. Copper can fall back if the resistance at 4.00 holds well. Natural Gas is to trade within 2.81/2.80-2.50 for some time.
Brent ($ 84.17) has dipped slightly from the levels below the resistance at $ 85. We need to see if breaks above $ 85 or falls back towards $ 82.
WTI ($ 80.40) is hovering below $ 81. View remains the same to see a test of $ 82-83. While these hold, a corrective dip might be possible towards $ 79-78.
Gold (1994.70) is lacking strength to rise above 2000. A strong break above it, if seen, could pave the way towards 2025-2035. Immediate support is at 1970.
Silver (24.45) has rebounded but needs to surpass immediate resistance at 24.65-24.85 to avoid a fall towards 23.80 and to rise towards 25-25.30.
Copper (3.9425) rose sharply to 3.9805 and has come off slightly from there. Key resistance is at 4.00. While that holds, a fall towards 3.85-3.80 is possible.
Natural Gas (2.6460) has bounced back from the level of 2.55 contrary to our view. Resistance is at 2.80-2.81, while below which, it is likely to to trade sideways within 2.81-2.50 for some time. Only a strong rise past 2.81 could open doors towards 2.9-3.0.
9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous -0.1%
1:30 7:00 AU PPI
Expn – …Expected 0.9% …Previous 1.0% …Actual 0.5%
3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10% …Actual -0.10%
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected 95.0 …Previous 95.3 …Actual 94.5%
12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.5% …Previous 0.5% …Actual 0.3%
12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.2%
12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%