US Headline CPI came out at 3.30% (Y/Y%) for July-23, up from 3.09% seen for June-23. This is as per our expectation of seeing steady or slightly higher inflation before continuing to fall further. It would be difficult for inflation to fall below 3% for quite sometime now. Dollar Index holds steady within 101.75-102.85/103 region while Euro may trade within 1.1050-1.0910. Pound and Aussie continue to trade within 1.26-1.28 and 0.65-0.66 region although both saw a brief upmove above the upper end of the mentioned ranges yesterday but could not sustain. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen well and look bullish towards 148 and 160/162. USDCNY is headed towards 7.25. USDRUB could see trade within 98-94 for the next few sessions. EURINR is holding within 90.50-91.50. USDINR can attempt to fall while below 82.80/90. RBI kept rates unchanged yesterday.

Dollar Index (102.56) fell sharply to 101.78 yesterday but bounced back to 102+ again. The broad range of 101.75-102.85 continues to hold for now.

EURUSD (1.0988) went up to test 1.1065 but came off sharply from there. Immediate range of 1.0950-1.1050 may hold for the next few sessions but we may soon expect a clarity on further direction.

EURJPY (159.03) has risen sharply, finally breaking above 158. The pair may continue to rise towards 160-162 in the near term. View is bullish for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (144.71) has also moved up sharply breaking above 144. The pair has fair chances of rallying up to the upper resistance near 148 with some interim dips over the next couple of weeks. View is bullish above 144 which may now act as a decent support.

USDCNY (7.2297) has risen and is headed towards 7.25

Pound (1.2681) went up to 1.2819 but came off sharply within the 1.26-1.28 range which may hold for some more time.

Aussie (0.6521) also tested 0.6620 but fell sharply towards 0.65 again. 0.65-0.6620 could be the near term range for the next 1-week.

USDRUB (97.0233) may trade within 97-98 for a couple of sessions before breaking higher to move up towards 99. Immediate support is seen near 94.

USDINR (82.7025) showed some signs of a fall at the closing market hour and further fell to test 82.59 on the NDF. But the spot may open above 82.70 today and could fall slowly towards 82.50 over today or early session next week. View is bearish while below 82.80/90.

EURINR (90.9563) has dipped within the 90.50-91.50 region after testing 91.135 yesterday. We may expect range trade to continue for some more time.

The US Treasury yields have risen well. The chances are high to see more rise from here. On a YoY basis the Headline CPI (3.3%) inched up while the Core CPI (4.7%). The German yields have risen back. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to move further up and confirm the range breakout. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped after the RBI’s monetary policy outcome. The yields can come down further and then resume the upmove. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 6.5%.

The US 10Yr (4.11%) and the 30Yr (4.25%) yields have risen back. The 10Yr is holding well above 4%. So, the chances remain high for it to breach 4.2% and rise higher. The 30Yr has broken 4.2% and can rise to 4.3%-4.4% while this break sustains.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) yields have risen. The 10yr has to see a strong follow-through rise to confirm the 2.1%-2.5% range breakout and move higher. The 30Yr on the other hand is yet to break its 2.1%-2.65% range. It is a wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1524%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1382%) have come down. They can dip to 7.14%-7.15 (10Yr) and 7.1%-7.08% (5Yr) and then resume the upmove targeting 7.2% and higher.

Dow remains stuck within 35000 and 35500. DAX has gained momentum but needs to surpass the hurdle at 16000-16100 to negate the danger of falling again. Nifty is vulnerable while it remains below 19600-19700. Shanghai has declined as the resistance at 3250 has held well and looks bearish for the near term.

Dow (35176.15, +0.15%) has come-off sharply from the high of 35578. This keeps the 35000-35500 range still intact. We will have to wait for this range to break out.

DAX (15996.52, +0.91%) continues to move up. A break above the 16000-16100 resistance zone will negate the danger of the fall to 15500. It will then take the index up to 16400-16500 again.

Nifty (19543.10, -0.46%) is struggling to see a sustained break above 19600. This keeps alive the chances to break 19500 and fall to 19400-19300 and even lower.

Nikkei (32473.65) is closed today. Outlook will remain bullish for a rise towards 33500 while it sustains above 32000-31500.

Shanghai (3223.1098, -0.97%) has come down sharply well below 3225 after failing to break above the resistance 3250. If the fall sustains below 3225, a further dip towards 3175-3150 might be possible.

Crude prices have declined as the key resistances have held well as expected. Gold, Silver, and Copper remains vulnerable to test their immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural gas has fallen back sharply as the resistance at 3.00 has held well. View is bearish while it remains below 3.00.

Brent ($ 86.38) tested the resistance at $ 88 as expected and has come off from there. While it remains below $ 88-89, a corrective dip towards $ 85-$ 83 can be seen.

WTI ($ 82.82) tested $ 85 as expected and has come down from there. While below $ 85, a dip to $ 81-80 looks likely.

Gold (1947.30) has declined below 1950. View remains the same to see a test of 1940-1930 before a reversal is seen.

Silver (22.79) is holding well below the resistance at 23-23.10. While it remains below 23.10, a test of 22 is possible before a bounce back can happen.

Copper (3.7545) remains lower as the resistance at 3.85 is holding well. While below 3.85, view is bearish to see a dip towards 3.70-3.65 in the near term before a reversal is seen.

Natural Gas (2.7790) has come down sharply below 2.8 after failing to break above the resistance at 3.00. It may come down towards 2.6-2.5 while it stays below 3.00.

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -19.0 …Expected -16.2 …Previous -18.7

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 5.4% …Expected 1.0% …Previous 5.2%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.1%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.1

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.2%