Dollar Index is near immediate resistance at 103.50. Need to see if it breaks above 103.50 or not. Euro, Aussie and Pound have gained momentum and may look to rise towards their immediate resistance. USDJPY has scope to rise towards 148 while it sustains above 144/143.50. EURJPY is attempting to break below its support at 158. USDCNY will remain bullish towards 7.35/40 as long as it sustain above 7.25. USDRUB will remain vulnerable while below 95. EURINR has gained momentum but has to overcome the resistance at 90.60/65 to move up further. USDINR can be range bound while it remains below 83.20.

Dollar Index (103.38) is hovering below the resistance at 103.50. A strong break above it, if seen, can take it higher to 104.50. On the downside support is seen at 102.70-102.60.

EURUSD (1.0882) has rebounded from Friday’s low of 1.0845. If the bounce sustains, a test of 1.0930-1.0950 might be seen. However, a fall to 1.08 cannot be negated if it remains below 1.0950.

EURJPY (158.22) is attempting to break below the support at 158. A sustained break below 158, if seen, can trigger a fall to 156. Else it can rise back towards 159-159.50.

Dollar-Yen (145.38) has bounced back from a low of 144.93. Key immediate support is at 144-143.50, while above which, a rise towards 148 can be seen in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.3061) came down to 7.2648 in line with our expectations for a fall to 7.25 and has bounced back sharply from there. While it remains above 7.25, a rise towards 7.35-7.40 is possible in the near term.

Pound (1.2739) is getting good support at 1.27. However resistance is at 1.28. While it remains below 1.28, we can expect 1.28-1.26 to continue to hold for some more time.

Aussie (0.6408) is gradually moving up above 0.64 as the support at 0.6350 seems to be holding well. While above 0.6350, there is scope for a rise towards 0.6450-0.65.

USDRUB (92.98) is trading lower below 95. While it remains below 95, there is scope for a fall towards 90-88.

USDINR (83.1075) remains higher above 83. Immediate resistance is seen at 83.20. If it managed to hold below 83.20, we can expect a sideways trade between 83.20-82.90 for the near term. Only a strong break above 83.20 is needed to strength the momentum towards 83.30/50.

EURINR (90.5127) has gained momentum but has to overcome the resistance at 90.60/65 to move up further. Else a dip to 89.50 cannot be negated.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and have room to move further up before a correction happens. The German yields have come down sharply but can reverse higher again and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and trigger a reversal again. The overall trend is still up.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and the 30Yr (4.38%) yields remain higher and stable. The 10Yr can test 4.3%-4.35% and the 30Yr is about to touch 4.4%. A corrective fall is likely thereafter before a fresh leg of rise happens towards 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and the 30Yr (2.72%) yields have come down sharply but that could be short-lived. The broader trend is still up for both to target 3%-3.1% on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2172%) has come down on Friday. Supports are at 7.2% and 7.15% while above which the trend will remain up to target 7.35%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.2027%) yield has an immediate support at 7.2%-7.18% and a deeper one at 7.13%-7.10%. While above 7.1% the 5Yr can test 7.3% first and then 7.45% over the medium-term.

Dow Jones and Nifty remain bearish to test their key support before a fresh rally can begin. DAX tested its 15500-15400 support zone. Need to see if it bounces back from here or not. Nikkei will remain vulnerable while below the resistance at 32000. Shanghai has declined sharply failing to sustain the bounce and can fall further in case it breaks below 3100.

Dow (34500.66, +0.07%) has risen back from the low of 34263. There is room to test 34100-34000 after which a fresh rally is possible.

DAX (15574.26, -0.65%) tested the 15500-15400 support zone. Need to see if it is getting a strong follow-through rise from here or extending the fall to 15200.

Nifty (19310.15, -0.28%) broke below 19300 as expected but did not sustain. There is still room to test 19200 and 19000 on the downside before a fresh leg of rally begins.

Nikkei (31628.50, +0.55%) is oscillating around 31500. Resistance is at 32000. While that holds, a fall towards 30500 looks possible in the near term.

Shanghai (3114.95, -0.54%) has declined sharply from the level of 3180. Failure to sustain above 3100 can drag it down to 3050 or even lower to 3000.

Brent and WTI have broken sharply above the resistance at $ 85 and $ 81 and may look to rise further while this break sustains. Gold remains bearish for a fall to 1900 before a reversal can happen. Silver and Copper need a sustained break above 23 and 3.75 to strengthen the momentum further. Natural gas has scope to rally on the upside while above the support at 2.5.

Brent ($ 84.23) has risen well breaking above $ 85. A further break above $ 86, if seen, can lead to a rise towards $ 88-88.50. This may negate the chances of a fall towards $ 82-$ 80.

WTI ($ 81.39) has sharply above the resistance at $ 81. If the break sustains, it can move up further towards $ 85. This may negate the chances of a fall towards $ 77.

Gold (1918.10) continues its downtrend. View remains the same to see a test of 1900 before a bounce back can be seen towards 1940-1950.

Silver (22.79) is lacking strength to move up above 23. A sustained break above it can see a rally towards 23.50. Else it can trade within 23-22 for some time.

Copper (3.7130) is heading towards 3.75 as expected. A break above it is needed to strengthen the momentum toward 3.80-3.90. Else it can trade within 3.75-3.65 for some time.

Natural Gas (2.5930) has rebounded from Friday’s low of 2.5240. As long as it holds above 2.5, a rise towards 2.8-3.0 looks possible. Only a strong break below 2.5, if seen, could see an extended fall to 2.4.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
————-
23:30 5:00 JP CPI
Expn 4.3 …Expected 3.1 …Previous 3.3 … Actual 3.3

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 5.7% …Expected 5.3% …Previous 5.5% …Actual 5.3%