US Dollar moved above 105 yesterday but fell back to trade below 105 now. Euro also dipped below 1.07 before bouncing back but scope of a fall to 1.06 cannot be negated within the next 1-month. Aussie and Pound have bounced a bit but need to sustain above 0.64 and 1.25 to avoid another fall towards 0.63 and 1.24 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY have dipped but can find support near 157 and 146 respectively. USDCNY looks bullish towards 7.38/40. USDRUB can rise towards 99-100 while above 98. EURINR can be bullish above 89 else may have scope to fall to 88 soon. USDINR has resistance at 83.25/83.30. Need to see if RBI intervenes to prevent Rupee deprecation above 83.30.
Dollar Index (104.86) rose to 105.157 yesterday but has managed to come down below 105. It will be crucial to see if the fall can extend down to 104.50-104 or will it again shoot up towards 106 in the medium term. With support at 104, we might have to allow for 106 if the index re-attempts to break above 105.
EURUSD (1.0717) fell to 1.0686 but has bounced above 1.07. We may not negate a fall below 1.07 again unless a sustained trade is seen above 1.0750 in the next few sessions. Resistance is seen at 1.08 and below that 1.06 looks a fair possibility within the next 1-month.
EURJPY (157.79) and Dollar-Yen (147.24) have dipped slightly. But a bounce can be expected while above 157 and 146 respectively. Immediate resistances are seen near 159.80 and 148.
USDCNY (7.3427) is rallying as expected and could continue to target 7.38/40 soon. Note that 7.38/40 is a crucial resistance which needs to break to hold the upmove steady.
Aussie (0.6385) and Pound (1.2496) have moved up a bit but needs to sustain above 0.64 and 1.25 to avoid further decline in the near term. A possible fall back to 0.63 and 1.24 cannnot be negated unless the Dollar Index falls below 104.50-104.00 for the medium term.
USDRUB (98.4914) has risen, breaking above immediate resistance at 98 and could now target 99-100.
USDINR (83.2150) has resistance at 83.25/30 which if holds can produce a fall towards 83-82.90. But failure to hold below 83.30 could be further bullish towards 83.50. Watch price action near 83.25/30 in the near term.
EURINR (89.0766) has to necessarily hold above 89 to move up again else could be vulnerable to a fall to 88.
The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. Downside is likely to be limited and the broader picture is bullish to see more rise. The German yields have dipped but can rise back again and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has declined sharply. Though some more fall cannot be avoided, supports are there to limit the downside and trigger a reversal. The broader trend is up. The 5Yr GoI retains its narrow range and has declined within it.
The US 10Yr (4.23%) and the 30Yr (4.37%) yields have come down sharply. But the big picture remains bullish to see 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr) first and then 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) eventually. Support is at 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.61%) and the 30Yr (2.74%) yields have dipped slightly. They are likely to rise back and keep the bullish view intact to see 3%-3.1 on the upside.
The 10Yr GoI (7.1772%) has declined sharply and closed below the 7.2%-7.18% support. Next supports are at 7.14% and 7.10% that can limit the downside. While above 7.1%, the bullish view is intact to see 7.35% on the upside.
The 5Yr GOI (7.1850%) has declined within its 7.16%-7.22% range. A strong rise above 7.22% is necessarily needed for a rise to 7.3% and 7.45%.
Dow Jones has bounced back and is holding above 34400 but needs to rise past 34700 to ease the downside pressure. DAX and Shanghai remain bearish for the near term. Nifty remains bullish for a rise towards 19800-20000. Nikkei has fallen back below 33000 contrary to our view and and looks likely to come down further towards 32000.
Dow (34500.73, +0.17%) has bounced and is holding above 34400. A strong rise past 34700 will ease the downside pressure and take the Dow up to 35000 levels again. That will avoid the fall to 34200 and lower that was cautioned yesterday.
DAX (15718.66, -0.14%) has been coming down slowly. Our view of seeing 15500-15400 on the downside remains intact.
Nifty (19727.05, +0.59%) has risen sharply and is heading up towards 19800-20000 in line with our expectation. The 19500-19400 support zone is holding very well.
Nikkei (32702.41, -0.87%) has declined sharply below 33000 from a high of 33322. It may come down further to test 32000 before rising back towards 33000 again.
Shanghai (3108.37, -0.45%) has broken below 3125 as expected as the resistance at 3175 has held well. A fall towards 3100 or 3070/3050 looks likely in the near term.
Brent and WTI have fallen back but are likely to get support at $ 89-88 and $ 85 respectively. Gold and Natural gas have bounced back as the support at 1940 and 2.5 have held well. Silver too has bounced back and if sustains can rise towards 24. Copper has scope to test 3.70 or even 3.68/3.65 on the downside before a bounce back can happen.
Brent ($ 89.44) was unable to rise past $ 91 and has declined below $ 90. A test of immediate support at $ 89-88 looks likely before a possible rise towards $ 93-95 can be seen.
WTI ($ 86.30) has fallen below $ 87 after failing to rise past $ 88. But key support is seen at $ 85. While $ 85 holds, a rise back towards $ 90 is possible in the near term.
Gold (1943.50) has inched up further as the support at 1940 is holding well. While above 1940, there is scope for a rise towards 1975. Only a break lower will bring 1925-1920 into picture.
Silver (23.39) has rebounded from yesterday’s fall to 23.13. If the bounce sustain, it may rise towards 24 before reversing lower towards 22.70-22.50.
Copper (3.7515) is no its way to test immediate support at 3.70. Failure to hold above 3.70 can see an extended fall to 3.68-3.65 before a bounce back can happen.
Natural Gas (2.5860) has bounced back after testing 2.5 as expected. As long as it remains above 2.5-2.45, a rise towards 2.8-3.0 looks possible in the coming weeks.
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected 1.4% …Previous 1.5%
12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 20.0K …Previous -6.4K
22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn -21.1 …Expected – …Previous -25.6 …Actual -19.8
0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn 11.1A$ …Expected 10.1A$ …Previous 10.27A$ …Actual 8.04A$
9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.1%