US Dollar index can test 104 in the next few sessions. Before rising from there. View is bullish above 104. Euro can rise to 1.08 but unless a sustained trade above 1.08 is seen, view remains bearish from there. Aussie and Pound have bounced a bit and can rise to 0.6450-0.65 and 1.26 respectively else may head towards supports at 0.64/6350 and 1.2450/2400 respectively. EURJPY could be ranged within 159-156 while USDJPY can test 148. USDCNY has fallen sharply and can test support at 7.25. USDRUB has fallen sharply contrary to expectation as some analysts expect the Russian central bank to raise rates to support the Rouble this week. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly. USDINR can test upper limit of 82.80-83.10 range. Break above 83.10 will trigger a rise to 83.25/30 soon.

Dollar Index (104.57) looks stable today after seeing a sharp fall yesterday from levels above 105. Immediate downside can extend to 104 before bounce back towards 105 is possible. While above 104, we cannot negate a potential rise to 106 in the longer run. With that, EURUSD (1.0745) has scope to test 1.08 before falling sharply from there.

EURJPY (157.59) looks stable within 159-156 region while Dollar-Yen (146.68) tested support at 145.89 before bouncing higher. The pair can move up towards 148, while above 145.89.

USDCNY (7.2858) has dipped as expected and could extend to 7.25 before bouncing higher. Failure to rise from 7.25 could signal reversal and indicate further bearishness towards 7.20, negating our upside target of 7.38/40. Watch price action at 7.25.

Aussie (0.6431) and Pound (1.2512) have risen slightly and need to sustain the upmove to target 0.6450-0.65 and 1.2550-1.26 respectively. Else, both Aussie and Pound can fall back to supports of 0.64/6350 and 1.2450/2400.

USDRUB (94.33) fell sharply after a Reuters poll showed that analysts now expect Russian central bank to raise rates on its Friday meeting to support the Rouble.

USDINR (83.0250) moved up yesterday from 82.83 to 83.0625 exactly in line with our expectation. We may see a test of the upper range of 82.80-83.10 today but a sustained break above 83.10 will be further bullish for a rise to 83.25/30 soon.

EURINR (89.1046) rose to 89.78 before falling back from there. If the pair sustains above 89, it can slowly move up else we may have to allow for a possible test of 88.


The US Treasury and the German yields are inching up slowly. The outlook is bullish for both the yields and there is room to rise more. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch which can cause volatility. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply, breaking their immediate resistance. Outlook is bullish. More rise is on the cards.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and the 30Yr (4.38%) are inching up slowly. The view of seeing (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr) first and 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) eventually on the upside remains intact. Support is at 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.63%) and the 30Yr (2.76%) yields have inched up. The broader bullish view remains intact to see 3%-3.1 with intermediate dips.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2458%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2580%) have risen sharply breaking above their immediate resistance. They have gained momentum. While this sustains, the 10Yr can rise to 7.35% and the 5Yr to 7.3% and 7.45%. Need to see if that is happening now.


Dow Jones and Shanghai needs a sustained break above 34700 and 3160 to avoid falling again. DAX is attempting to move up within its sideways range. Nifty remains bullish to see a test of key resistance in the near term. Nikkei is bearish to test 32000 before a bounce back can happen.

Dow (34663.72, +0.25%) rose but has closed on a mixed note. A sustained rise above 34700 is needed to see 35500 and higher levels. Else a revisit of 34400-34200 cannot be ruled out.

DAX (15600.99, +0.36%) is attempting to move up within its 15500-16100 range. Immediate outlook remains unclear.

Nifty (19996.35, +0.89%) rose to 20000 as expected. 20200-20300 can be tested. But the price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or not.

Nikkei (32514.20, +0.14%) remains subdued. A test of key support at 32000 looks likely before a bounce back can be seen towards 33000.

Shanghai (3131.69, +0.48%) remains higher but has to rise past 3160 to reduce the downside pressure and to avoid a fall towards 3070/3050.


Brent and WTI look bullish to see a rally in the near term while above the support at $ 89-88 and $ 85 respectively. Gold seems range bound within 1940-1960. Silver has risen within its 23-23.50 range. Copper has risen well to 3.80 and has scope to move up further towards its immediate resistance. Natural gas has managed to sustain above the support at 2.50. Outlook is bullish while above 2.50.

Brent ($ 90.95) lacks momentum to rise above $ 91. But as long as it sustains above the support at $ 89-88, a rise towards $ 93-$ 95 is possible.

WTI ($ 87.67) lacks strength to move up above $ 88. But while above the support at $ 85, there is potential for a rise towards $ 90.

Gold (1945.70) is consolidating within 1940-1960. It has to sustain above 1940 to avoid a fall towards 1925-1920 and to rise towards 1975.

Silver (23.43) has gained momentum within the 23-23.50 range. A break above 23.50 can lead to a rise towards 24. Else it would remain vulnerable to see a test of 22.70-22.50 before a bounce back can happen.

Copper (3.8075) has risen sharply to 3.80 as the support at 3.7 has held well. A further rise towards 3.85-3.87 looks likely from here.

Natural Gas (2.6140) has managed to hold above 2.5. While above 2.5-2.45, view is bullish for a rise towards 2.8-3.0 in the near term.


6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.3% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.2%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 4.7% …Expected 4.8% …Previous 3.7%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 6.90% …Expected 7.00% …Previous 7.44%

No major data release yesterday.