US Dollar index has fallen from 105 and can test 104 in the next few sessions. View is bullish above 104. Euro can rise to 1.08 but unless a sustained trade above 1.08 is seen, view remains bearish. Aussie and Pound have bounced a bit and can rise to 0.6450-0.65 and 1.26 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can test 156 and 146 respectively. USDCNY has fallen from 7.35 which can extend to 7.30/27 before resuming upmove towards 7.38/40. USDRUB can rise towards 99-100 while above 95. EURINR has broken below 89 and if an immediate bounce back is not seen, it can slowly target 88 on the downside. USDINR has supports near 82.90-82.70 region which may hold to produce a bounce back to higher levels. Immediate range of 82.80/70-83.20 could hold for the next few sessions.
Dollar Index (104.73) has fallen sharply from 105.05 today and looks to decline to immediate support at 104 before bouncing again from there. Upside target of 105.50-106 cannot be negated while the index trade above 104.
EURUSD (1.0723) has moved up and has scope to rise upto 1.08. Bearish view may remain intact while below 1.08. Only a sustained break above 1.08 will negate further bearishness in the longer run.
EURJPY (157.26) and Dollar-Yen (146.65) can dip to 156 and 146 respectively. Further break below the mentioned level are needed for the currency pairs to become bearish in the medium term.
USDCNY (7.3217) has dipped from 7.35 and has scope to fall to 7.30-7.27 before again bouncing back to rise towards 7.38/40.
Aussie (0.6413) and Pound (1.2499) have shows signals of a slight rise which can continue while the US Dollar Index weakens towards 104. Near term targets are 0.6450-0.65 and 1.26 respectively.
USDRUB (98.0036) is bullish while above 95 and can eventually target 99-100 soon.
USDINR (82.95) did fall sharply last week but it would be important to see if the fall would sustain. Series of supports are seen at 82.90, 82.80 and 82.75/70 but view could turn bullish above 82.70. We would wait and watch for the next few sessions for clarity. Immediate broad range of 82.70-83.20 can hold for the next few sessions.
EURINR (88.9430) has fallen below 89 and could target 88 if the fall sustains in the coming sessions. View is bearish below 89.
The US Treasury yields continue to move up. View remains bullish and more rise is on the cards. The US CPI data release on Wednesday will be an important event to watch this week. The German yields are likely to rise back and resume their broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI and the 5Yr GoI are bullish but will need a strong follow-through rise from here to move up. Else they can remain stuck in a narrow range for some time before the rise happens.
The US 10Yr (4.29%) yield has surged while the 30Yr (4.36%) remains higher but stable and can test 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr). Eventually 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) can be targeted while the yields sustain above 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.61%) and the 30Yr (2.73%) yields remain stable. The view remains bullish to see 3%-3.1 on the upside. Any intermediate dips will be short-lived.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2066%) has risen back above 7.2%. Support at 7.14% holds well. View remains bullish to see a rise to 7.35%. A break above 7.25% can trigger this rise.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2183%) has risen towards the upper end of its 7.16%-7.22% range. Bias is bullish to break 7.22% and rise to 7.3% and 7.45%. Need to see if that is happening now.
Dow Jones and Shanghai are moving up but needs to rise past 34700 and 3160/3165 to ease the downside pressure. DAX looks mixed. Nifty remains bullish to target 20000-20200. Nikkei has scope to test the support at 32000 before a bounce back can happen.
Dow (34576.59, +0.22%) is moving up. As mentioned earlier, a break above 34700 will ease the downside pressure and will take the Dow up to 35500-36000 again.
DAX (15740.30, +0.14%) has risen back after testing 15600. The immediate outlook is unclear as the index is oscillating up and down between 15500 and 16100.
Nifty (19819.95, +0.47%) has risen and closed above 19800. Outlook is bullish to see 20000-20200. Support will now be at 19600-19500.
Nikkei (32534.78, -0.22%) continues to fall. A test of 32000 looks likely before a bounce back can be seen towards 33000.
Shanghai (3131.69, +0.48%) has bounced back after getting support from 3100. It has to rise past 3165-3160 to reduce the downside pressure and to avoid a fall towards 3070/3050.
Brent and WTI looks range bound but bias will remain positive to see a break on the upside while above the support at $ 89-88 and $ 85 respectively. Gold is hovering above the support at 1940. Silver appears ranged within 23-23.50. Copper has rebounded from the support of 3.70 and if sustains, can see a rise towards 3.80. Natural gas has fallen back from friday’s high but downside could be limited to 2.50-2.45.
Brent ($ 90.47) is consolidating within $ 91-89. As long as it sustains above the support at $ 89-88, a rise towards $ 93-$ 95 looks possible.
WTI ($ 87.04) is stuck within $ 88-86 region. But bias will remain positive for a rise towards $ 90 while it remains above the support at $ 85.
Gold (1945.60) is hovering above the support at 1940. A break below it, if seen, can trigger a fall toward 1925-1920. As long as it sustain above 1940, we can expect a range of 1940-1960 to hold for a while.
Silver (23.31) appears ranged within 23-23.50. Failure to rise past 23.50 would be vulnerable to see a test of 22.70-22.50 before a bounce back can be seen.
Copper (3.7425) has rebounded from the support of 3.70. If the bounce sustains, a rise towards 3.80 can be seen. Else it can see an extended fall to 3.68-3.65 before a bounce back can happen.
Natural Gas (2.5480) has fallen back from friday’s high of 2.6590. However, the support at 2.5-2.45 is likely to limit the downside and keep our bullish view intact for a rise towards 2.8-3.0 in the near term.
No major data release today.
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected 1.4% …Previous 1.5% …Actual 1.2%
12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 18.9K …Previous -6.4K …Actual 39.9K