Dollar index holds above 104.50 and could test 105+ levels taking USDJPY higher towards 148 or higher and dragging down Euro below 1.0770 to target 1.07 now. Aussie and Pound have turned down again to target 0.6350 and 1.2450-1.24 respectively. EURJPY could be ranged within 159-156 while USDCNY could rise above support at 7.25. USDRUB has recovered its fall and trades above 96 just now. A rise to 98/99 cannot be negated in the near term. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly towards 89.50 or higher. USDINR can trade within 83.10-82.80/70 and needs a clear breakout on either side for further direction clarity. On the charts upside scope is visible till 83.30.
Dollar Index (104.66) paused its fall near 104.50 and has attempted to bounce back slightly to current levels. While above 104.50, there could be scope for a rise to 105+ levels again in the near term. Immediate support is seen at 104.50 and lower at 104.
EURUSD (1.0747) seems to dip from 1.0770. While below 1.08, we continue to remain bearish for a fall towards 1.07/06 eventually.
EURJPY (158.39) is likely to be ranged within 159-156 region while Dollar-Yen (147.36) looks bullish above support at 146. A rise to 148 or even higher cannot be negated.
USDCNY (7.2895) looks stable near 7.28/29. While above support at 7.26, view is bullish for a rise to 7.30/35.
Aussie (0.6401) has fallen back sharply after a brief rise to 0.6450 seen over the last few sessions. A decline back to 0.6350 cannot be ruled out.
Pound (1.2481) has also fallen as expected and can target 1.2450-1.24 soon.
USDRUB (96.0093) limited its fall to 92.8820 before bouncing back sharply to current levels of 96. A re-attempt to rise towards 98/99 cannot be ruled out in the next few sessions.
USDINR (82.9275) is likely to trade within 83.10-82.80/70 for the next few sessions. Thereafter, a clear breakout on either side is needed for further directional clarity. Above 82.70/80, there is scope for a potential rise to 83.30.
EURINR (89.0829) tested 88.3327 on the downside before rising back sharply to current levels of 89.0892. While above 88,view is bullish towards 89.50-89.70.
The US Treasury yields remain stable and higher. Looks like the market is waiting to see the US CPI data release today. Broadly the picture is bullish, and the yields can rise more. The German yields sustain higher and are keeping intact our bullish view. Further rise is possible from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped but supports can limit the downside. View is bullish and there is room to rise further.
The US 10Yr (4.29%) and the 30Yr (4.36%) yields remain stable and higher. While above the support at 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr), the view remains bullish to see 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr) on the upside first and then 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) eventually.
The German 10Yr (2.64%) and the 30Yr (2.76%) yields sustain higher and remains bullish. A rise to 3%-3.1 can be seen going forward with intermediate dips.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2280%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2457%) have dipped but can get support around 7.2% and 7.23% respectively. View remains bullish to see 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr).
Dow Jones seems to lack a strong follow-through buying. DAX is stuck within its 15500-16100 range. Nifty has come down after opening with a wide gap-up but the support at 19900-19850 region is likely to limit the downside. Nikkei has risen back but could face rejections from 33000. Shanghai is bearish while it remains below the resistance at 3150.
Dow (34635.99, -0.05%) seems to lack a strong follow-through buying. We repeat, a strong rise above 34700 is needed to clear the way for 35500-36000. Else the Dow can remain vulnerable to test 34400-34200 again.
DAX (15715.53, -0.54%) continues to remain stuck within its 15500-16100 range. Outlook is unclear.
Nifty (19993.20, -0.02%) had come down after opening with a wide gap-up. Support is in the 19900-19850 region while above which the outlook remains bullish to see 20200-20400.
Nikkei (32694.55, -0.25%) has risen back after getting support at 32500. However, immediate resistance is at 33000. While that holds, we can expect a sideways trade within 33000 and 32000 for some time.
Shanghai (3119.56, -0.56%) is holding well below the resistance at 3150 (revised from 3160). While it remains below 3150, a fall towards 3100 or even lower towards 3070/3050 looks possible.
Brent and WTI have risen well and looks bullish to target $ 95 and $ 90 respectively in the near term. Gold has broken below the lower end of the 1940-1960 range and is likely to fall further from here. Silver remains stuck within 23-23.50 range. Copper has fallen back, failing to break above 3.80. Natural gas has risen sharply above 2.70 and has room to move up further towards 3.0. The outcome of US CPI data today would be crucial to watch as it could bring in volatility in the market.
Brent ($ 92.02) has risen well above $ 92 in line with expectations. View is bullish to see a rise towards $ 93-$ 95 in the near term.
WTI ($ 88.88) has risen sharply above $ 88. Bias is positive for a rise towards $ 90 while above the support at $ 85.
Gold (1932.40) has broken below the support at 1940. While below 1940, view is bearish to see a fall towards 1925-1920.
Silver (23.26) remains confined within 23-23.50 range. A break above 23.50 is needed to rise towards 24. Else it would be vulnerable to a break below 23 and fall towards the support at 22.70-22.50.
Copper (3.7840) has declined failing to break above 3.80 contrary to our view for a rise towards 3.85-3.87. It may trade within 3.70-3.80 for a while. Only a break higher could see a target of 3.85-3.87.
Natural Gas (2.7370) has risen well above 2.70. View remains bullish for a rise towards 2.8-3.0 while above the support at 2.5-2.45.
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -14.1 …Expected -15.9 …Previous -15.5
9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.6% …Expected -0.8% …Previous 0.5%
12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.6 …Previous 0.2
12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2%
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.3% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.2% …Actual 4.3%
12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 4.7% …Expected 4.8% …Previous 3.8% …Actual 5.7%
12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 6.90% …Expected 7.00% …Previous 7.44% …Actual 6.83%