US CPI data for Aug-23 inched up at 3.71% (Headline CPI, Y/Y%) from 3.30% seen for July-23. But no major movement is seen on the Dollar index which has scope to rise above 105 in the near term. Euro also has scope to fall below 107 while below 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY can trade within 146-148 and 159-156 respectively. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.6350-0.65 and 1.24-1.26 region. USDCNY could rise to 7.30 above support at 7.2630. USDRUB is fluctuating highly within 92.50-98 amongst the war situation where news of fresh attacks from Ukraine to Russia hit the news headlines. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly towards 89.50 or higher. USDINR can rise to 83.10 while above 82.80. Also watch ECB Policy statement today to see if the central bank talks of continued rate hikes or pause as hinted in July-23.
Dollar Index (104.688) has been trading below 105 for the last few sessions and could have scope for a rise towards 106 soon. Downside can be limited to 104.50-104. Overall near term view continues to be bullish.
EURUSD (1.0737) is holding above 1.07 and has scope to turn lower while below 1.08. Only a break above 1.08 would make it bullish for the medium term.
EURJPY (157.98) continues to look stable within 159-156 region while Dollar-Yen (147.11) can range within 146-148 for the very near term.
USDCNY (7.2752) has trendline support near 7.2630 which if holds can produce a bounce towards 7.30 and higher eventually.
Aussie (0.6430) is holding well above support at 0.6350 and while the support holds, there is scope for a rise towards 0.65 in the medium term.
Pound (1.2494) could continue trade within the narrow range of 1.24-1.26 for the next few sessions. A break on either is needed thereafter to give more clarity on further direction.
USDRUB (96.1909) has been fluctuating up and down within 92.50-98 region as war situation continues. We may look at the said range to continue for some more time.
USDINR (82.99) rose by the end of the session yesterday to close at 82.99 from 82.89, the day’s low. While above support at 82.80, the pair can rise to 83.10 or higher in the near term.
EURINR (89.1009) has scope to test 89.50 while above 88.
The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the inflation data release. The US Headline CPI rose to 3.71% (from 3.3%) in August while the Core CPI came down to 4.39% (from 4.7%). Supports are there to limit the downside in the yields and keep the broader uptrend intact. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish to see more rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down sharply. But supports can limit the downside and take them higher again. Overall outlook is bullish.
The US 10Yr (4.23%) and the 30Yr (4.33%) yields have come down. The supports at 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr) can be tested before a fresh rise to 4.4% (10Yr), 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr) and then 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) happens.
The German 10Yr (2.65%) and the 30Yr (2.75%) yields continue to remain stable. Outlook is bullish to see 3%-3.1 on the upside.
The 10Yr GoI (7.1954%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1781%) have come down sharply. But supports at 7.16%-7.15% (10Yr) and 7.15% (5Yr) can limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact to see 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr) on the upside.
Dow Jones struggles to gain momentum and looks vulnerable for a fall towards its support again. DAX is coming down towards the lower end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty has risen well above 20000 and remains bullish to target its key resistance in the near term. Nikkei is currently testing its resistance at 33000. Need to see if it holds or breaks higher. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.
Dow (34575.53, -0.20%) struggles to gain momentum and looks vulnerable for a fall to 34400-34200 again. A break below 34500 can trigger this fall.
DAX (15654.03, -0.39%) is coming down towards the lower end of its 15500-16100 range. Failure to bounce from around 15500 can drag it down to 15200.
Nifty (20070, +0.38%) has risen and closed well above 20000. Bullish outlook is intact to see 20200-20400 while above 19900-19850.
Nikkei (33025.26, +0.97%) is currently testing the resistance at 33000. If that holds, a fall back towards 32500-32000 might be seen. Else view can turn further bullish towards 33500.
Shanghai (3121.84, -0.04%) remains subdued. View is bearish to see a fall towards 3100 or even lower towards 3075/3050 while it stays below the resistance at 3150.
Brent and WTI remains bullish to see a test of $ 95 and $ 92 respectively before a fall back can be seen from there. Gold has scope to test immediate support at 1920 before a bounce back can happen. Silver has come down towards its lower end of the range. Natural gas is hovering below the interim resistance at 2.80. But bias is positive to see a break above 2.8 while above the support at 2.5.
Brent ($ 92.30) remains higher above $ 92. Bias is bullish to see a rise towards $ 95 in the near term before a fall back can be seen from there.
WTI ($ 88.87) is on its way towards $ 90 in line with expectations. View remains bullish to see a further rise towards $ 92 before a pause can be seen.
Gold (1931.20) continues to dip. View remains bearish to see a test of 1920 before a bounce back can be seen from there.
Silver (23.09) has come down towards the lower end of the 23-23.50 range. A break below 23, if seen, can see a fall towards 22.70-22.50-22.40 before a bounce back can happen.
Copper (3.7875) is oscillating around 3.80. A sustained break above 3.80 can lead to a rise towards 3.85-3.87-3.90.
Natural Gas (2.7370) is hovering below the interim resistance at 2.8. A break above it can see a rally towards 3.0. Downside could be limited to 2.5.
1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn 33.3K …Expected 25.9K …Previous -14.6K
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -1.3% …Expected -0.6% …Previous -1.4%
11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 4.25% …Previous 4.25%
12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.3%
12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.3
12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 1.1% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.6%
9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn -22.8$ …Expected -21.0$ …Previous -20.7$
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -14.1 …Expected -15.9 …Previous -15.5 …Actual – 14.1
9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.6% …Expected -0.8% …Previous 0.4% …Actual – 1.1%
12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.6 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.6
12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.3%