After the higher than expected US NFP data release, the Dollar Index surged to 107 while the Euro fell but both have now recovered. Dollar Index has support at 106 which if holds can take it higher while Euro may trade within 1.05-1.06. Aussie and Pound may test resistance near 0.64-0.6450 and 1.2250-1.23 respectively. EURJPY is testing resistance at 158 and needs to face rejection to fall lower else can rise to 159-160. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 98-102.50. EURINR is moving up and can test 88.50 soon. USDINR can fall within 83.30-83.10/00 region.

Dollar Index (106.25) is holding above immediate support near 106 and has scope to bounce back towards 106.50 or higher in the next couple of sessions before again falling back towards 106-105.50.

EURUSD (1.0561) has recovered well after the dip seen on Friday post US NFP data release. Now there could be scope to trade within 1.05-1.06 for the near term.

EURJPY (157.49) has risen to test immediate resistance at 158. A break above 158 is needed for the pair to rise towards 159 or higher else we may expect a rejection from 158 to fall back towards 157-156. Watch price action near 158.

Dollar-Yen (149.11) holds above support at 148 above which the pair can rise towards 149-150 during this week.

USDCNY (7.2949) opened lower after the week long holiday. A dip to 7.28/27 looks possible before attempting to rise higher in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6367) has near term resistance near 0.6450 below which view remains bearish for a fall towards 0.63. Broad range of 0.63-0.6450 is likely to hold for now.

Pound (1.2211) could face rejection from 1.2250-1.23 region which can push it back towards 1.21 in the near term. Overall view remains bearish while below 1.23.

USDRUB (99.98) tested 101.9250 in line with our expectation of testing 102-102.50. Wide range of 98-102.50 looks possible within the next 2-weeks.

USDINR (83.2550) could continue trade within 83.30-83.00. Within this range, we may expect a possible dip to 83 or slightly lower before a sharp rise is seen in the longer run.

EURINR (87.8763) dipped below 87.50 on Friday but has recovered from there. There is scope for a rise towards 88.50 before a pause is seen within the current upmove.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply again after the jobs data release on Friday. The US Non-Farm Payroll increased by 336K in September as against the market expectation of 168K. The Treasury yields are likely to extend the rise without seeing an intermediate correction. The German yields remain stable. Supports can limit the downside and keep the overall uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI surged on Friday. The RBI announcing in its monetary policy that it plans to conduct open market operations triggered this rise. Crucial resistances are coming up for both the 10Yr and 5Yr GoI which will need a close watch in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.80%) and the 30Yr (4.97%) yields have risen back sharply again and are keeping alive the chances of seeing 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) straight away without seeing a correction.

The German 10Yr (2.88%) and the 30Yr (3.10%) remains stable. Outlook remains bullish to see 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) on the upside. Support is at 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.3412%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3993%) have surged and have come close to our targets. 7.4% (10Yr) and 7.45% (5Yr) are crucial resistances that will need a close watch. Failure to breach them can trigger a reversal. It is a wait and watch.

Dow Jones has risen well but needs a decisive break above 33500 to strengthen the momentum. DAX can rise to 15600 if it gets a strong follow-through rise from here. Nifty can rise further if it remains above the support at 19600-19500. Shanghai is likely to trade sideways within 3050-3150 for the near term.

Dow (33407.58, +0.87%) has risen well on Friday. But a decisive rise past 33500 is needed to move up to 34000-34300. Else it can fall back to 33000-32800.

DAX (15229.77, +1.06%) can rise to 15600 if it gets a strong follow-through rise from here and avoid the danger of seeing 14800 and lower levels on the downside.

Nifty (19653.50, +0.55%) can dip on the back of war tension. But supports are there at 19600 and 19500 which if holds today would be bullish to take the Nifty up to 19800-20000.

Nikkei (30994.67) is closed today. It has scope to rise towards 31500 in the coming sessions while above the support at 30500.

Shanghai (3094.44, -0.52%) is trading lower and is likely to trade sideways within 3050-3150 for some time.

US Non-Farm Payroll came in stronger on Friday at 336K (Sep-23) than previous release of 227K and market expectations of 168K thereby causing a rally in the commodities. Crude prices have risen sharply today with a gap up opening but is likely to face resistance at $ 89.50-90 (Brent) and $ 88 (WTI) respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper have rebounded well and look bullish for the near term. Natural gas continues to rise and has scope to move up towards 3.5.

Brent ($ 87.98) rebounded sharply from friday’s low of $ 83.45 with a gap up opening at $ 86.35. It has to surpass the hurdle at $ 89.50-90 to strengthen the momentum further on the upside. Else it can come down towards $ 84 again.

WTI ($ 86.34) has bounced back from Friday’s low of $ 81.51 and made a gap up opening today at $ 85.25. Immediate resistance is at $ 88. A rise past $ 88 could open doors towards $ 90-92. Else it would be vulnerable to a fall towards $ 82-80.

Gold (1865.60) has bounced back above 1850 from a low of 1823.50 tested on Last friday. While this bounce sustians, a rise towards 1900 can be seen.

Silver (22.02) has risen sharply, breaking above the upper end of the 20.80-21.60 range. It has now scope to rise further towards 22.50-23.

Copper (3.6715) has bounced back sharply above 3.65 as the support at 3.55 has held well. A test of 3.70 looks likely on the upside. A break above it is needed to see an extended rise towards 3.75.

Natural Gas (3.3920) continues to rise, breaking above the resistance at 3.25-3.30. While above 3.3, view is bullish for a further rise towards 3.5.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
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4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 190K …Expected 168K …Previous 227K …Actual 336K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.6% …Expected 3.7% …Previous 3.8% …Actual 3.8%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 28.0K …Previous 39.9K …Actual 63.8K