Dollar Index has dipped to test support near 106-105.50 from where a bounce is needed for the index to strengthen else a further decline could be seen towards 105 or lower. Euro has resistance near 1.06. Aussie and Pound may test resistance near 0.6450 and 1.2250-1.23 respectively. EURJPY fell sharply from resistance at 158 and can trade within 156-158 for now. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 96/98-102.50. EURINR could hold within the broad 88.50-87.50 region. USDINR needs to break or decline from 83.30 to indicate further movement from here.

Dollar Index (106.07) has dipped and needs to break below 105.50 to turn bearish for the near term. Else a bounce from 105.50-106 can take it back towards 107+

EURUSD (1.00567) can face rejection from 1.06 followed by a possible fall towards 1.05.

EURJPY (157.04) has fallen sharply from 158 as the resistance holds well. Near term range is seen between 156-158. A break below 156, if seen can take it down to 155.

Dollar-Yen (148.61) holds above support at 148 above which the pair can rise towards 149-150 during this week.

USDCNY (7.2847) is on a decline and while below 7.30, there is cope for a fall to 7.26-7.24 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6413) has resistance at 0.6450 below which there can be a fall to 0.6350. A sustained rise above 0.6450 is needed to negate the expected fall and lead to a sharp rise towards 0.65 and higher.

Pound (1.2236) has moved up as expected and could face rejection from 1.2250-1.23 to fall back towards 1.21/20. Overall broad long term trend remains down.

USDRUB (99.6944) has support near 96 above which there is scope for a rise towards 100-102 or even higher towards 104/105 in the longer run.

USDINR (83.2675) did not fall below 83.20 and instead traded within the narrow range of 83.2075-83.2725 yesterday. Crucial resistance at 83.30 needs to produce a reversal to see a decline to 83.15/10 else the spot may break higher above 83.30 to head towards 83.40/50 eventually. Watch price action near 83.30.

EURINR (87.9895) has declined from 88.20 and while it sustains trade below 88, a dip to 87.50 looks possible in the next couple of sessions. Overall broad range of 88.50-87.50 may hold for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down sharply. The Israel-Hamas war tension has increased the fear in the market and has turned the sentiment risk-averse. A further fall from here can drag both the US and the German yields more from current levels before they resume their broader uptrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come close to their key resistances. A corrective fall is a possibility from here as we expect the resistances to hold on its first test.

The US 10Yr (4.65%) and the 30Yr (4.84%) yields come down sharply. 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) are crucial supports which if broken can trigger a corrective fall to 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr). That in turn will delay the rise to 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.77%) and the 30Yr (3.01%) have declined sharply below their support at 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. While this break sustains, a fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) is possible. Thereafter a fresh rise can be seen. So, the rise to 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) will get delayed now.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3864%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.4317%) have come up to their crucial resistance levels of 7.4% and 7.45% respectively. We expect the resistances to hold on its first test and trigger a correction to 7.3% (10Yr) and 7.4%-7.35% (5Yr). But if the resistances are broken, then 7.5% (10Yr) and 7.55%-7.6% (5Yr) can be seen.

Dow Jones has risen above 33500 and while this break sustain, a further rise looks possible. DAX is not getting a follow-through rise to move further up to 15600. Nifty needs a decisive breakout on either side of the 19600-19400 zone to determine its future direction. Nikkei has risen sharply but needs a sustained break above 31700 to continue the bullish momentum. Shanghai looks mixed.

Dow (33604.65, +0.59%) has risen above 33500. While this sustains a rise to 33800-34000 can be seen now.

DAX (15128.11, -0.67%) is not getting a follow-through rise to move further up to 15600. That keeps it vulnerable to see 14800 on the downside.

Nifty (19512.35, -0.72%) has closed lower. Support is at 19400 and resistance is at 19600. A breakout on either side will determine whether Nifty can fall to 19200-19000 or rise to 19800-20000.

Nikkei (31703.50, +2.29%) has risen sharply well above our expected level of 31500. It is currently testing the immediate resistance at 31700. A sustained break above it, if seen, can take it higher towards 32500.

Shanghai (3085.77, -0.36%) looks mixed. A sideways range of 3050-3150 is likely to persist for some time.

Crude prices have to surpass the resistance at $ 90 (Brent) and $ 88 (WTI) respectively to avoid the danger of falling again. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bullish for a test of their immediate resistance in the near term. Natural gas has fallen back from the levels below the resistance at 3.50 but downside could be limited to 3.30.

Brent ($ 87.91) has come down from the level of $ 89. It has to surpass $ 90 to avoid the danger of falling towards $ 85-84 again.

WTI ($ 86.12) is lacking strength to move up above $ 88. A strong break above $ 88 can take it higher towards $ 90-92. Else it would be vulnerable to a fall towards $ 82-80.

Gold (1877.50) continues to inch up. View remains bullish for a rise towards 1900. Thereafter we have to see if it falls back or breaks higher above 1900.

Silver (22.04) is gradually moving up towards 22.20. A test of 22.50-23 looks possible before a fall back can be seen from there.

Copper (3.6625) is heading towards 3.70. A break above 3.70, if seen, could see an extended rise to 3.75. Else it can fall back towards 3.60.

Natural Gas (3.3480) rose to a high of 3.4710 yesterday in line with our view for a rise towards 3.5 and has come down from there. Immediate support is at 3.30. While that holds, we can expect a range of 3.30-3.50 to hold for a while.

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY:

No major data release yesterday.