Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106 and 1.06-1.05 respectively while EURJPY can be bearish below 159. USDJPY can trade within 148.90-150. USDCNY looks stable. Pound has bounced from 1.2090 but looks bearish below 1.22. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.50-88.80.

Dollar Index (106.332) may trade within 106-107 for the very near term. Break below 106 can take it lower to 105.50-105.

EURUSD (1.0596) trades within 1.06-1.05 which may hold for the week. Sustained trade above 1.05-1.0550 is needed for Euro to eventually move up above 1.06.

EURJPY (158.26) has bounced back slightly. We may expect trade within 159-158/157 for the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (149.36) tested 148.80 and has bounced back from there. While above 149, a rise back to 150 can be possible. At the same time, a possible downside of 148 cannot be negated.

USDCNY (7.3166) continues to trade below 7.32 and while the resistance at 7.32 stands, an immediate range of 7.32-7.29 could hold for a while unless a break can be seen on either side.

Aussie (0.6357) trades below resistance of 0.64 which if holds, can take it down towards 0.63 or even lower. As mentioned yesterday, a narrow range of 0.64-0.63 may just hold for now.

Pound (1.2149) dipped slightly below 1.21 to 1.2090 before reversing back. Now if the support at 1.21/2090 holds, a short rise to 1.22 could be seen before eventually coming down again. Overall view remains bearish to 1.20 while it trades below 1.22, immediate range being 1.22-1.21.

USDRUB (92.6510) is holding above 92 and could attempt to rise towards 96-98 soon. View is bullish above 92.

USDINR (83.2550) trades just below the upper end of the 83-83.30 range. We continue to look for a confirmed break on either side of the mentioned range. Till then the range may hold.

EURINR (88.2716) has risen sharply as support near 87.50/75 holds well. On the upside there is scope to test 88.50-88.80. Overall range of 88.80-87.75/50 may hold for the near term.


The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. We retain our view of the yields being in a sideways range for some time before moving higher. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome on Wednesday will be important to watch. The German yields remain stable. View is bullish to see more rise from here and then a corrective fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their ranges. The 10Yr looks more bullish than the 5Yr to get an upside breakout of its range and rise further if not immediately but eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.88%) and the 30Yr (5.04%) yields have inched up slightly. We repeat that the yields can remain in a range of 4.8%-5% or 4.6%-5% (10Yr) and 4.9%-5.1% or 4.8%-5.1% (30Yr) for some time before they break out higher.

The German 10Yr (2.82%) and the 30Yr (3.11%) yields remain stable. View remains bullish to see 3% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.25% (30Yr) on the upside. Thereafter a correction is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3701%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3610%) yields are moving up within their 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% range respectively. Bias on the 10Yr is bullish to break 7.4% and rise to 7.45% and higher. The 5Yr GoI looks mixed. We have to wait for a breakout.


Dow Jones has rebounded sharply and may extend the bounce further on a break above 33000. Nikkei remains vulnerable to a fall towards its support before a possible bounce back can happen. DAX outlook remain weak. Nifty and Shanghai can rise further on a break above 19200 and 3025 respectively.

Dow (32928.96, +1.58%) has bounced sharply. An extended rise to 34300 is possible on a break above 33000. That would delay the expected fall to 32000-31800.

DAX (14716.54, +0.2%) remains stable around 14700. While below the 15000-15200 resistance, the broader picture is weak to see a fall to 14200-14000.

Nifty (19140.90, +0.49%) can see a corrective bounce to 19400-19500 on a break above 19200. Thereafter a fresh fall to 18700-18600 is possible.

Nikkei (30635.00, -0.20%) is inching down towards 30500. Outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 30000 in the near term before a bounce back can happen.

Shanghai (3013.40, -0.27%) is hovering below 3025. A sustained break above 3025 can take it higher towards 3050-3060.


Brent and WTI have declined and have scope to test their immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2020 whereas Silver has fallen back from yesterday’s high. However the downside seems limited to 1980 and 23-22.50 for both the precious metals. Copper has fallen back as the resistance at 3.70 has held well. Natural gas remains bearish for the near term.

Brent ($ 86.70) has fallen sharply towards $ 86 breaking below the lower end of the $ 87-91 range. It can test $ 85-84 before a possible bounce back can happen.

WTI ($ 82.67) has declined towards the lower end of the $ 82-86 range. It looks vulnerable to a break below $ 82 and fall towards $ 80. Thereafter it might see a bounce back.

Gold (2004.90) lacks strength to rise above 2020. Support is now at 1980. While that holds, a break above 2020 and rise towards 2025-2030 can be seen.

Silver (23.36) rose to a high of 23.75 in line with our expectation for a rise towards 23.50-24 and has come down from there. Support is at 23-22.50, while above which, a range of 22.50-24 may hold for some time.

Copper (3.6440) tested the resistance at 3.70-3.71 yesterday and has fallen back from there as expected. A dip towards 3.60 or even lower towards 3.50 can be seen while below 3.70.

Natural Gas (3.3250) continues to dip. View remains bearish for a fall towards 3.15-3.10 before a bounce back can happen.


23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.7%

3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.1%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.2%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.1%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 101.0 …Expected – …Previous 103.0

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.3 …Expected 93.3 …Previous 93.4 …Actual 93.3