The Dollar Index could hold below 106, taking the Euro up towards 1.07. EURJPY can test 162 and possibly face an initial decline while USDJPY is also headed towards resistance at 152 from where a decline is expected. The Aussie is strongly bearish for a fall to 0.63 but Pound may see a short bounce from 1.22 now but has scope for an eventual fall towards 1.21. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.30/32. USDRUB could also fall slowly towards 90. USDINR and EURINR are likely to remain range bound within 83.20-83.30 and 88.50-89.50 respectively.
Dollar Index (105.86) is likely to hold below 106 for the day, falling back towards 105.50 or lower. But a break above 106 over the next few days can lead to a possible rise towards 106.50 within the next 1-week.
EURUSD (1.0672) may hold above 1.0650, rising back to 1.07 but has scope for an eventual fall to 1.06 over the next 1-2 weeks.
EURJPY (161.41) is headed towards resistance at 162 but needs to break higher to head towards 163/165 else can face sharp rejection to fall back towards 160.
Dollar-Yen (151.24) has been rising slowly and can test 151.60-152 in the near term. Initial decline is expected from 152 towards 150. Failure to decline can open chances of a sharp rise to 153/155 before the expected reversal takes place. Note that the pair is likely that a crucial top would be established soon.
USDCNY (7.2918) could rise towards 7.30/32 in the next few days as the pair seems to be slowly rising.
Aussie (0.6359) looks strongly bearish for a fall towards 0.63.
Pound (1.2223) could bounce back for a brief while above 1.22 but chances of a fall to 1.21 cannot be negated in the coming week. Overall view is bearish below 1.23.
USDRUB (91.6250) seems to be falling slowly and can see an eventual fall to 90 in the next few sessions.
USDINR (83.2850) remains capped below 83.30 and can continue to trade within the narrow 83.20-83.30 region for a while.
EURINR (88.89) has declined towards 88.75. But while above 88.50, it is expected to remain range bound within 88.50-89.50 for the near term.
The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. The yields can still reverse lower again after moving up to test their resistances. We expect one leg of fall to test their support before a fresh rise happens. The German yields have bounced but are likely to fall back again to test their support. The 10Yr GoI remains weak to fall more. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand looks mixed and is hovering above a key support.
The US 10Yr (4.63%) and the 30Yr (4.77%) yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if this sustains and take yields up to 4.8% (10Yr) and 4.95%-5% (30Yr) again. A turn around thereafter will still keep the chances alive of seeing 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.55% (30Yr) on the downside. Wait and watch.
The German 10Yr (2.64%) and the 30Yr (2.88%) have bounced back. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to negate the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.5% (30Yr) that we have been expecting.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2747%) dipped to 7.2399% and has bounced. While below 7.3%, the view is bearish to see a fall to 7.2%-7.15% in the coming days.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2443%) is hovering above its support at 7.2%. Outlook is mixed for now. It can remain stuck between 7.2% and 7.3% for some time. A break below 7.2% can drag it to 7.1% and lower.
Dow Jones has fallen as the resistance at 34200 has held well. View is bearish while below 34200. DAX has scope to test 15400-15500 before turning lower from there. Nifty has declined below 19400 and can fall further while below the resistance at 19500-19600. Nikkei is consolidating within 32800-32000 range. Shanghai has fallen towards the support at 3025, which may hold and produce a bounce back to higher levels.
Dow (33891.94, -0.65%) has come down below 34000. Resistance at 34200 has held very well. A further fall below 33800 can drag it down to 33500 and lower.
DAX (15352.54, +0.81%) is heading up to test the 15400-15500 resistance. We expect it to come down again towards 15000 and lower thereafter.
Nifty (19395.30, -0.25%) has come down from a high of 19463. Our bearish view is intact while below 19500-19600 to see 19000 and 18700-18600 on the downside.
Nikkei (32470.50, -0.54%) is consolidating within 32800-32000 range. Failure to hold above 32000 can be bearish for a fall towards 31500 or lower. But while above 32000, a rise towards 33000-33500 cannot be negated.
Shanghai (3031.74, -0.71%) has declined towards the support at 3025 failing to get a strong follow through rise above 3050. If 3025 holds, our bullish bias will remain intact for a rise towards 3100. Else can fall towards 3000.
Crude prices and Natural Gas have scope to bounce back if the support at $ 79-78.5 (Brent), $ 75-74 (WTI) and 3.0-2.9 (Natural Gas) respectively held well. Gold, Silver and Copper still looks vulnerable to test their support before a bounce back can be seen.
Brent ($ 80.31) is hovering above $ 79. While $ 79-78.50 holds, a bounce back towards $ 84-85 can be seen. Only a strong break below $ 78.50, if seen, can lead to a deeper fall towards $ 75-74.
WTI ($ 75.93) has managed to sustain above the support at $ 75-74. A rise towards $ 80 can be seen while above $ 74. Only a break lower can open doors towards $ 70.
Gold (1962.20) has bounced back from a low of 1948.30 but it has surpass 1980 to reduce the downside pressure and to move up towards 2000-2020. Else a fall towards 1925 cannot be negated.
Silver (22.73) is oscillating within 22.30-23.30. Bias remains tilted to the downside. A test of 22-21.80 is still possible before a reversal can be seen.
Copper (3.6280) is inching down towards 3.60 as expected. A break below it, if seen, can open doors towards 3.55-3.50.
Natural Gas (3.019) has come down towards the support at 3.0. It may see an extended fall to 2.9 before a bounce back can happen.
7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected -15.3 …Previous -16.0
12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 7.4% …Expected – …Previous 10.3%
12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 4.51 …Expected 5.50 …Previous 5.02
1:30 7:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected -0.2 …Previous 0.0 …Actual -0.2
1:30 7:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -2.8 …Previous -2.5 …Actual -2.6