Dollar Index looks weak towards 103 while Euro may rise to 1.10 while above 1.09. EURJPY could see a small corrective fall to 161 before moving towards 165/166 in the medium term. USDJPY has broken below 150 and could head towards 148. A top seems to have been made at 152. Aussie needs to break above 0.6550 to move higher towards 0.66/67 while Pound is slowly inching up towards 1.26. Watch price action at 88 on USDRUB which if breaks can be strongly bearish. USDCNY plunged sharply and could fall further to 7.15/10 while below 7.20. EURINR has scope to slowly rise towards 92 while USDINR remains stuck within 83.00/10-83.30.
Dollar Index (103.715) trades weak and looks strongly bearish for the near term. A further fall towards 103 looks possible in the next few sessions.
EURUSD (1.0919) has moved up above 1.09 and could be headed towards 1.10.
EURJPY (162.77) is holding below 164.30 and can trade within 164.30-161 region for a while before resuming the upmove in the medium term. A possible test of 165/166 looks likely before a sharp reversal comes in.
Dollar-Yen (149.05) is coming off sharply, after breaking below . View is bearish towards 148. A medium term top could be in place at 152.
USDCNY (7.1895) has fallen sharply as 7.30 has acted as a crucial resistance. There is enough room on the downside for a further decline towards 7.15/10.
Aussie (0.6538) has moved up towards the upper target of 0.6550 and needs to break higher to head towards 0.66/67. Immediate support is seen at 0.6450 above which immediate view looks bullish.
Pound (1.2479) is trying to move up slowly and while above 1.24, it can attempt to test 1.26 by the end of the week.
USDRUB (88.89) trades below 90 but needs to sustain above 88 to avoid further decline. There could be some chances of a recovery back to 90+ while above 88 else the pair could turn bearish in the coming weeks. Watch price action at 88 which would be crucial this week.
USDINR (83.2750) fell to 83.01 last week but managed to rise back to the crucial resistance at 83.30. The pair continues to trade within 83.00-83.30 unless a breakout on either side is seen.
EURINR (90.9606) has been rising well and can move up slowly towards 92 before turning down from there. Immediate view is bullish above 90.
The US Treasury yields are hovering above their key supports. They have to sustain above their support to avoid more fall and keep alive the chances of rising from here. The German yields can dip to test their supports first and then can reverse higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking weak. They have room to fall more from here.
The US 10Yr (4.45%) and the 30Yr (4.62%) yields have to sustain above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.55% (30Yr) to avoid the danger of falling more. That will keep alive the chances of rising back to 4.8% (10Yr) and 4.95%-5% (30Yr). It is a wait and watch situation.
The German 10Yr (2.58%) and the 30Yr (2.80%) yields remain lower and stable. They can test 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.7% (30Yr) and then reverse higher again.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2168%) is coming down as expected. A test of 7.15% is likely before a reversal to 7.25% happens.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2082%) looks weak to see 7.1% on the downside while it remains below 7.25%.
Dow Jones can see a test of 35400-35500 on the upside before a reversal can happen. DAX remains bullish for the near term. Nifty broder outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 19500. Nikkei lacks strength to rise above the resistance at 33500. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 3025 held well and can rise further on the upside.
Dow (34947.28, +0.01%) is stable around 35000. A test of 35400-35500 looks likely before a reversal to 35000 and lower happens.
DAX (15919.16, +0.84%) is looking strong for a rise to 16500-16600. Support is at 15800-15700.
Nifty (19731.80, -0.17%) can dip to 19600-19500 while below 19800 now. But broadly the outlook is bullish while above 19500 to see 20000 and higher.
Nikkei (33520.50, -0.19%) tested a high of 33853 and is coming off from there. A sustained break above 33500 could lead to a rise towards 34000-34300. Else a dip towards 32500 cannot be negated.
Shanghai (3045.60, +0.01%) has bounced back as the support at 3025 has held well. While above 3025, our bullish bias will remain intact for a rise towards 3100-3125 in the coming days.
Brent and WTI have risen back sharply but have to overcome the resistance ahead to reduce the downside pressure. Gold has dipped slight but outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 1960. Silver has fallen back failing to rise above 24.30 and can dip further if it remains below 24. Copper look bullish for a test of 3.80. Natural Gas has declined towards its immediate support at 2.9. Need to see if that holds or not.
Brent ($ 81.17) has risen back sharply from a low of $ 76.60. But it has to rise past $ 81.50-82 to strengthen the momentum towards $ 84-85. Else a deeper fall towards $ 75-74 cannot be negated.
WTI ($ 76.59) has bounced back after getting support at $ 72. It has to surpass $ 78 to reduce the downside pressure and to rise towards $ 80. Else a fall to $ 70 cannot be avoided.
Gold (1983.20) has dipped a bit from friday’s high of 1996.40. But while above the support at 1960, bias remains bullish for a rise towards 2000-2020.
Silver (23.71) has fallen back failing to rise above 24.30. If the fall sustains below 24, a dip to 23.30-23.00 can be seen before rising towards 24.70.
Copper (3.7345) remains higher above 3.70 and has scope to rise towards 3.80.
Natural Gas (2.9490) has come down towards the support at 2.9. Failure to hold above it can see a test of 2.8-2.7 before reversing back towards 3.1.
No major data release today.
10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 3.3% …Expected2.9% …Previous4.34% …Actual 2.90%
13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1388K …Expected 1360K …Previous 1346K …Actual 1972K