The Dollar Index holds above 104 and could show some stability before moving on either side while Euro also holds below 1.09, could range within 1.08-1.09 before attempting to move up. EURJPY could see a small corrective fall before moving towards 165/166. USDJPY holds above 150 and could trade within 152-150 for some time. Aussie could trade within 0.6350-0.6550 within which a fall towards the lower end of the range looks highly possible. Pound could test support at 1.23 before bouncing back to higher levels. Watch price action at 88 on USDRUB which if breaks can be strongly bearish. USDCNY could hover near 7.25, view remains bearish below 7.30. EURINR could trade within 91-89.50 while USDINR can trade within 83.10-83.30.
Dollar Index (104.331) is holding well above 104 and could show some consolidation above 104 for a few sessions before moving sharply either towards 105+ or down towards 103. Bearish bias seem to have a greater weightage just now.
EURUSD (1.0852) is holding below 1.09, unable to break higher but we may expect a sharp upmove towards 1.10 after an initial sideways range of 1.09-1.08 over the next few sessions.
EURJPY (163.32) is coming off from 164.31 which could be a small corrective down move followed by an eventual rise towards 165-166.
Dollar-Yen (150.45) trades within our mentioned range of 150-152 which could hold for some more time. Immediate support is seen at 150.
USDCNY (7.2447) looks stable around 7.25. Some sessions of ranged movement can be possible without any clarity on further direction from here. Overall view is bearish below 7.30.
Aussie (0.6463) could attempt a fall to 0.64 in the early next week as resistance at 0.6550 seems to be holding strong.
Pound (1.2409) has fallen back sharply from 1.25. Immediate support is seen at 1.23 which if holds can produce a bounce towards 1.25 or higher again in the medium term. View could be bullish above 1.23.
USDRUB (89.3026) is holding above immediate support at 88 from where a sharp bounce back is needed to prevent any fall towards 86-84 region and instead to rise towards 94-96. Failure to hold above 88 could be bearish. Watch price action at 88 next week.
USDINR (83.2375) moved up to 83.23/24 in line with our expectation. We may look for a near term range of 83.10-83.30 to hold.
EURINR (90.3315) is likely to trade within 89.50-91 for the near term.
The US Treasury yields have come down again. The yields can test their supports first and then move up again. The German yields are coming down in line with our expectations. There is room to fall more from here before a reversal is seen. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained stable. They look vulnerable to fall further from current levels.
The US 10Yr (4.43%) and the 30Yr (4.61%) yields have come down again. 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.55% (30Yr) can be tested before a reversal to 4.8% (10Yr) and 4.95%-5% (30Yr) happens.
The German 10Yr (2.59%) and the 30Yr (2.82%) yields can fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.7% (30Yr). Thereafter a fresh leg of rise is possible.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2356%) remained stable. A test of 7.2%-7.15% is likely and then a bounce back move to 7.25% is possible.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2014%) hovers around 7.2%. Failure to get a strong follow-through rise from here can drag it down to 7.1% and even 7%.
Dow Jones can see a short-lived correction before heading higher. DAX remains bullish for the near term. Nifty can rise towards 20000 levels while above 19500. Nikkei is hovering below the resistance at 33500. Need to see if Nikkei breaks higher or falls back from there. Shanghai has inch down further but downside could be limited to 3025.
Dow (34945.47, -0.13%) has dipped slightly. A short-lived correction to 34500 is possible before it heads up to 35400-35500.
DAX (15786.61, +0.24%) sustains higher. The bullish view is intact to see 16000 and even 16500 on the upside.
Nifty (19765.20, +0.46%) has come-off from the high of 19875. Support will now be around 19500 while above which the bias will remain bullish to see 20000 levels again.
Nikkei (33434.50, +0.03%) is hovering below the resistance at 33500. A strong break above it can lead to a rise towards 34000-34300. Else a dip towards 32500 cannot be negated.
Shanghai (3045.10, -0.19%) is drifting lower. But while above 3025, our bullish bias may remain intact for a rise towards 3100-3125 in the coming days.
Brent and WTI have declined sharply below their immediate support and look bearish to test their next key support before a bounce back can happen. Gold has broken above 1980 and while this break sustain, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Silver continues to rise and remains bullish to target further highs. Copper can dip to 3.65 while below 3.75. Natural Gas remains range bound within 3.3-2.9.
Brent ($ 77.56) has plunged breaking below $ 79. It can now fall towards the support at $ 75-74.
WTI ($ 73.02) has fallen sharply breaking below $ 75-74. A further fall to $ 70 looks likely in the near term.
Gold (1988.20) has risen sharply breaking above 1980. While above 1980, view is bullish for a rise towards 2000-2020.
Silver (23.90) has risen well towards 24 as expected. View is bullish to see a further rise to 24.70/80 before a pause can be seen.
Copper (3.6985) rose to 3.7425 in line with our expectations for a rise to 3.75 and has come down from there. A break above 3.75 could see an extended rise to 3.80. Else it can see a test of 3.65 on the downside before bouncing back from there.
Natural Gas (3.0940) is stuck within 3.3-3.0/2.9 can hold for some time. A break on either side of the range will decide its future direction.
10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 3.3% …Expected2.9% …Previous2.9%
13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1388K …Expected 1360K …Previous 1358K
0:30 6:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn 112.6K …Expected 22.8K …Previous 6.7K …Actual 55.0K
13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -10.4 …Previous -9.0 …Actual -5.9
14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.2% …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual -0.6%
14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.9% …Expected 79.4% …Previous 79.5% …Actual 78.9%
21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 89.4 …Previous 63.5