Hint of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan pulled down USDJPY towards 141.60, weakening the US Dollar against other major basket of currencies and taking Euro slightly higher. However, the US NFP data today would be crucial to keep volatility intact in the currencies for a few more sessions. Dollar Index trades below 104 while Euro has fallen back below 1.08 after a brief rise to 1.0817. EURJPY has plunged to 154.74 while Aussie and Pound have witnessed slight up moves but need to see if they sustain in the medium term. USDRUB tested levels above 93 but has come off from there. USDCNY could trade within 7.17-7.12 for now while USDINR could also remain ranged within 83.25-83.40. EURINR could trade within 90.50-89.

Dollar Index (103.58) failed to sustain its rise past 104 and has dipped from there. The decline has come in after the Bank of Japan hinted at a policy shift that lead to a surge in Yen, thereby weakening the US Dollar against other major currencies. While the resistance at 104.20 holds on the Dollar Index and Yen continues to strengthen, a test of 103-102.5 could be a possibility on the DXY before a bounce is seen.

Dollar-Yen (143.33) fell to 141.61 after the BOJ hinted at a clear shift in policy. The pair has risen slightly from there, trading near 146.30 just now but it would be important to see if the fall sustains in the near term or bounces back towards 146.

EURUSD (1.0786) rose to 1.0817 but has fallen back below 1.08. A possible broad range of 1.0850-1.0750 could hold for a few sessions before moving on either side.

EURJPY (154.74) fell to 153.14 yesterday before mildly rising from there. Only if it sustains to move higher from here, it can rise towards 156-158 again over the coming sessions else can be bearish towards 152. Watch price action for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1538) has dipped slightly on weakness in the Dollar but could trade within 7.17-7.12 region for a while.

Aussie (0.6604) has risen sharply from 0.6525 but while below 0.6650, view may remain bearish for the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2587) is slightly up. View is bearish while below 1.26. A break above 1.26, if seen can take it slightly higher to 1.27 again but that looks less likely just now.

USDRUB (92.4671) has dipped slightly after testing 93.53 yesterday. Overall a slow rise to 94 can be seen soon.

USDINR (83.3575) is holding well below 83.40 and could continue trade within 83.25-83.40 region for the near term. Volatility is likely to remain low despite huge movements seen in other global currencies.

EURINR (89.9475) could trade within 89-90.50 for the near term.

US yields and German yields have risen after recent sessions of sharp fall. Some more recovery can be seen in the coming sessions. However, the Indian GOI yields have continued to fall but could be nearing supports from where a bounce can be expected next week.

The US 10Yr (4.164%) and the 30Yr (4.272%) yields have risen. It needs to be seen if the rise sustains in the near term to take them higher towards 4.20% and 4.30% respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.198%) and the 30Yr (2.409%) yields have risen slightly and needs to sustain to continue rising in the coming sessions. This has been contrary to our supports expected near 2.10% and 2.20% respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2382%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2219%) dipped slightly declined yesterday to close below 7.24% and 7.23% respectively. Immediate support is seen at 7.23% and then at 7.20% on the 10yr which has to sustain to take the yields up in the coming weeks while the 5yr yield needs to sustain above 7.22/20%.

Dow Jones is stuck in a narrow range. DAX can fall if they fails to sustain above 16600. Nifty has declined a bit and can fall further while it stays below 21000. Nikkei has fallen sharply below 32500 and has room to come down further from here. Shanghai has bounced back from 2950 and is likely to extend the bounce further in the near term.

Dow (36117.39, +0.17%) is stuck within 36000-36300. A decisive break on either side of the range will determine if it will rise towards 36500 or falls towards 35500.

DAX (16628.99, -0.16%) has dipped slightly but sustains above 16600. As long as it holds above 16600, a rise to 17000 is still possible. Else a fall towards 16400-16300 can be seen.

Nifty (20901.15, -0.17%) has declined a bit failing to rise past 21000. While it remains below 21000, there is scope for a fall towards 20700-20600 or 20500 in the near term.

Nikkei (32230, -1.91%) has fallen sharply below 32500. A further fall to 31500-31300 looks likely from here.

Shanghai (2977.03, +0.37%) has bounced back after testing 2950 contrary to our view for a test of 2930-2925. If the bounce sustains, a rise towards 3000-3025 can be seen.

Crude prices have recovered from levels above their key supports and may look to rise towards their immediate resistance. Gold is rising steadily and looks bullish for the near term. Silver has to sustain above 24 and rise past 24.50 to reduce the downside risk. Watch price action of precious metals after the outcome of US NFP data today. A disappointing US NFP release could boost Gold and Silver prices whereas a higher US NFP data could be bearish for precious metals. Natural gas has rebounded and has scope to rise towards its resistance. Copper has risen sharply breaking above its resistance and if the rise sustains, a further rally can be seen.

Brent ($ 75.14) has recovered slightly above $ 75 as the support at $ 73 seems to have held well. While above $ 73, there is scope for a rise towards the immediate resistance at $ 77 and then towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 70.32) has bounced back from a low of $ 68.82. If the bounce sustains, a rise towards $ 72-74 can be seen. On the downside, support is at $ 67-$ 66-65 levels.

Gold (2048.50) is gradually moving up towards 2060. It may rise towards 2075-2085.

Silver (24.16) has bounced back slightly from a low of 23.91. It has to sustain above 24 and break above 24.50 to reduce the downside pressure and to move up towards 25. Else can continue its downtrend towards 23.50-23.

Copper (3.8020) has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 3.76-3.80. While this break sustain, a further rise towards 3.88-3.90 can be seen.

Natural Gas (2.5790) has rebounded after testing 2.4890. While it sustains above 2.50, a rise towards 2.70-2.75 can be seen. Only a decisive break below 2.50 can see a further fall towards 2.35.

23:50 5:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.5% …Previous -0.5%

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
Expn 308K …Expected 179K …Previous 150K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected 3.9% …Previous 3.9%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.3% …Expected – …Previous 0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn 8.04A$ …Expected 7.75A$ …Previous 6.79A$ …Actual 7.13A$

10:00 15:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.1% …Previous -0.1% …Actual -0.1%