US NFP data came out higher at 199k from the previous 150k seen in Oct-23 release. Dollar Index trades slightly higher but needs to sustain above 104 to keep the upside intact to target 106 else can come back within the 102-104 range. Euro trades below 1.08 and has fair scope to fall to 1.0650. EURJPY and USDJPY have recovered well from last week’s decline and could continue to move up some more in the near term. Aussie and Pound seem to decline in the near term towards 0.6450 and 1.25 respectively. USDRUB is holding below 94 and could fall back to 90-89. USDCNY has risen sharply and could be headed towards 7.20/22. USDINR could remain ranged within 83.25-83.40 with some possibility of a rise towards 83.50 soon. EURINR could dip to 89.

Dollar Index (104.026) has moved up on Friday above 104 and now needs to sustain above 104 to keep the upside target of 106 intact, else can come back within the 102-104 range.

Dollar-Yen (145.42) has recovered well after the sharp decline seen last week. Some upmove is likely to be seen now towards 147/148 before resumption of decline in the longer run.

EURUSD (1.0765) trades below 1.08 and has fair scope to test 1.0650 on the downside before a final reversal is seen back towards 1.08-1.10 in the longer run.

EURJPY (156.55) saw a sharp recovery from 153.14 seen last week and the rise needs to sustain to target 158 on the upside in the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1864) has risen well with 7.12 holding as good support. A rise to 7.20/22 looks possible in the near term.

Aussie (0.6560) saw a very brief rise las week but overall looks weak for a fall to 0.65-0.6450 in the near term while below 0.6650.

Pound (1.2542) has been falling slowly since last week and could test 1.25 from where a bounce can be seen towards 1.26 or higher. Failure to rise from 1.25 can drag it lower towards 1.24 in the medium term.

USDRUB (91.8260) declined as resistance near 94 seems to be holding well for now. While below 94, a fall back to 90/89 can be possible.

USDINR (83.3850) showed a rise to 83.45 on the NDF markets on Friday but remains below 83.40 on the OTC. Need to see if it can drag itself up towards upper resistance at 83.50 or continue to trade within 83.25-83.40 region.

EURINR (89.7748) looks bearish for a fall to 89.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them higher this week. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome of Wednesday will be important to watch. That can impact the yield movement. The German yields have bounced but can remain vulnerable to fall back again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are rising within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.32%) yields have risen further well on Friday. A strong follow-through rise above 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) can take them up to 4.4%-4.45% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.6% (30Yr). Support is at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.27%) and the 30Yr (2.46%) yields have bounced but can remain vulnerable to fall again. A break below 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) can drag them down to 2% and 2.2% (30Yr). Key resistances are at 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (7.2697%) and 5Yr GOI (7.467%) are moving up within their 7.2%-7.3% range. A breakout of 7.2%-7.3% will give clarity on the next move.

Dow Jones remains stuck in a narrow range. DAX continues to move up and remain bullish to target new highs. Nifty touched 21000 on Friday and has scope to rise further from here. Nikkei has rebounded but outlook remains bearish while below the resistance at 33500. Shanghai can bounce back while above the support at 2930-2925.

Dow (36247.87, +0.36%) remains stuck between 36000 and 36300. A breakout either side will decide whether the Dow can rise to 36500-36800 or fall to 35500 and lower.

DAX (16759.22, +0.78%) is bullish. It can rise to 17000-17400 in the coming weeks while it sustains above 16500.

Nifty (20969.40, +0.33%) touched 21000 on Friday. Outlook is bullish to see 21500-21700. Support is at 20700 and 20500.

Nikkei (32873, +1.76%) has rebounded from friday’s low of 32205. However, a fall to 31500-31300 cannot be negated while it holds below 33300-33500.

Shanghai (2947.98, -0.73%) fell sharply to test the key support at 2930 and is bouncing back from there. While 2930-2925 holds, a rise towards 3000-3025 can be seen.

Crude prices are heading up towards their immediate resistance as expected. Stronger than expected US NFP data release on friday has led to a fall in Gold and Silver prices. Natural Gas has declined sharply below its support and has room to come down further from here. Copper has dipped from friday’s high but can bounce back if the support at 3.80 holds.

Brent ($ 76.12) is heading towards $ 77 as expected. A sustained break above it can take it higher towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 71.42) is moving up towards $ 72 as expected. A sustained break above it can be bullish towards $ 75-76.

Gold (2014.10) has declined sharply below 2020 contrary to our view for a rise towards 2075-2085 and is now heading down towards 2000. View is bearish for a fall towards 1950 in the near term.

Silver (23.30) has plunged below 24. View is bearish for a test of 23-22.80 before a possible reversal can be seen.

Copper (3.8085) rose to 3.8640 in line with expectations for a rise towards 3.88 and has since come down from there. If it sustains above 3.80, a further rise towards 3.90-3.92 can be seen. Else can dip towards 3.72.

Natural Gas (2.4460) has declined sharply below 2.50 failing to sustain the bounce seen on last friday. While below 2.50, a fall towards 2.35 or even lower to 2.0 is possible.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
————–
23:50 5:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.5% …Previous -0.5% …Actual – 0.7%

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
Expn 200K …Expected 184K …Previous 150K …Actual 199K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected 3.9% …Previous 3.9% …Actual 3.7%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.3% …Expected – …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.4%