Dollar Index is trading within 103-104.50 region while Euro is bearish towards 1.07 while below 1.0850. US FOMC meeting tonight would be crucial to watch. Upside could be limited for EURJPY and USDJPY as they have immediate resistances at 158 and 147 below which view is bearish. Aussie and Pound are in a sideways consolidation within 0.65-0.6650 and 1.25-1.27 respectively. USDRUB is bearish to 90-89.50. USDCNY could test 7.20/22 before facing a rejection. USDINR is likely to be ranged within 83.25-83.40 with some possibility of a rise towards 83.50 soon. EURINR could dip to 89.

Dollar Index (103.886) has support at 103 on the near term charts and interim resistance at 104.50. Next few sessions could see trade within the range of 103-104.50. Thereafter, a break on either side of the range will be needed for more directional clarity.

EURUSD (1.0785) is holding below immediate resistance at 1.0850 and could be ranged within 1.0850-1.07 for a few sessions with possibility of an extension to 1.0650 on the downside.

EURJPY (156.93) recovered after seeing a sharp fall to 153 last week but immediate resistance is now seen at 158 below which there could be chances of a fall back towards 155-154 in the coming week.

Dollar-Yen (145.53) also has immediate resistance at 147, below which view is bearish for a fall to 144-143 soon.

USDCNY (7.1838) has been rising slowly and could test 7.20/22 before falling again from there.

Aussie (0.6552) has support at 0.65 and lower near 0.6450 which can be tested in the next few sessions before a bounce back to 0.66-0.6650 is possible.

Pound (1.2548) has immediate support at 1.25 and resistance near 1.2650/1.27 within which a sideways consolidating looks possible for the near term. Thereafter, a break on either side is needed to give directional clarity.

USDRUB (90.3062) is falling towards support at 90-88.50 which needs to hold to produce a bounce back towards 92-94 soon.

USDINR (83.3925) continues to trade within 83.25-83.40.

EURINR (89.9546) is bearish below 90.50-90 and could fall towards 89.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The outcome of the US Fed meeting tonight might provide some trigger for the yields to move on either way from here and set the trend going forward. The German yields are coming down as expected. They remain vulnerable to see an extended fall from here breaking below their upcoming supports. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their sideways range. The immediate outlook is unclear, and we will have to wait for the range breakout.

The US 10Yr (4.20%) and the 30Yr (4.31%) yields have dipped slightly. Support is at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr). A strong rise past 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) is needed to move up towards 4.4%-4.45% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.6% (30Yr) and higher.

The German 10Yr (2.22%) and the 30Yr (2.40%) yields are coming down as expected. They remain vulnerable to break below 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) and fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2745%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2462%) have dipped slightly. The 7.2%-7.3% range remains intact, and the outlook remains unclear. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity.

Dow Jones is heading up towards its resistance. DAX has dipped slightly but broader trend remains up. Nifty is struggling to get a sustained rise past 21000. Shanghai has fallen back but view remains bullish to see a rise above 3000 while above the support at 2930-2925. Nikkei is holding well below the resistance at 33200-33500.

Dow (36577.94, +0.48%) is heading up towards 36800. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or not.

DAX (16791.74, -0.02%) has dipped slightly. Trend is up and strong to target 17000-17400. Support is in the 16600-16500 region.

Nifty (20906.40, -0.43%) is struggling to get a sustained rise past 21000. Support is at 20850-20800. A break below it can trigger a corrective fall to 20700-20500 before a fresh rise to 21500-21700 happens.

Nikkei (32990.50, +0.45%) is holding well below the resistance at 33200-33500. While below 33500, view is bearish for a fall towards 31500.

Shanghai (2987.49, -0.53%) has dipped failing to sustain the rise seen above 3000. But outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 3025-3050 while above the support at 2930-2925.

Crude prices have declined sharply after facing rejections from the interim resistance contrary to our view to see a break above the resistances. Gold and Copper remains vulnerable to a fall towards their support. Silver remains subdued. Need to see if it manages to sustain above 22.80 or not. Gold and Silver remains lower despite the release of softer than expected US CPI data. Next key focus is the FOMC meeting tonight. Natural Gas has scope to test key support before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 73.36) has fallen sharply below $ 74 failing to rise above $ 77.Support is at $ 72-70. While these holds, a bounce back towards $ 75-77 can be seen.

WTI ($ 68.72) has declined sharply towards $ 68 failing to break above the resistance at $ 72. Key support is at $ 66-65. While these holds, a bounce back towards $ 72 can be seen again.

Gold (1993.40) is inching lower. Outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 1950 while below the resistance at 2020-2025.

Silver (23.03) is hovering above 23 and remains subdued. If the support at 22.80 holds, a bounce back towards 24 can be seen. Else, it can be further bearish towards 22.

Copper (3.7880) is heading down towards 3.76. View is bearish for a fall towards 3.72-3.70 or even 3.68.

Natural Gas (2.2700) continues to fall as expected. A test of 2.00 can be seen in the near term before a bounce back can happen.

23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Expn – …Expected 10.0 …Previous 9.0

7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -15.0 …Expected -14.1 …Previous -14.3

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected -0.3% …Previous -1.1%

13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.5%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.5 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.0

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.50% …Previous 5.50%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.1% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.2% …Actual 4.2%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 7.5% …Expected – …Previous 6.2% …Actual 11.7

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.14 …Expected – …Previous 4.87 …Actual 5.55

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.0 …Previous 0 .0 …Actual 0.1

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.3%