Most currencies seem to be trading within a range and may continue so for the rest of the week. The Dollar Index remained stable but a further break past 102.5 is needed for it to rise higher. Euro is also stable within 1.09-1.10 and could fall while below resistance at 1.10. EURJPY and USDJPY look bearish. Aussie can rise towards 0.68 before facing rejection while Pound may head towards 1.2550 before bouncing back. USDCNY is moving up within the 7.15-7.10 region and needs to break past 7.15 to move higher. USDRUB has risen past 91 as expected and could now test 92-92.50. USDINR may head towards 83.25/30 from where a rejection looks likely. EURINR has fallen contrary to our expectation of an upmove. It could now test 90.50 soon.

Dollar Index (102.315) remained stable within the 102.5-102 region. Now, a rise past 102.50 will be needed to head towards 103 or higher, else a fall to 101.50 seems likely to happen below 102.50.

EURUSD (1.0949) has been ranged within 1.09-1.10 region over the past 2-3 sessions. View remains biased to see a fall, while the resistance at 1.10 holds. Only a sustained break above 1.10, if seen would take us to higher targets.

EURJPY (156.46) continues to fall towards the lower end of the 159-154 range mentioned yesterday.

Dollar-Yen (142.93) extends the fall seen yesterday and as expected, could be headed towards 142/141 while below 143. Immediate view is bearish below 145.

USDCNY (7.1449) has risen and needs to break above 7.15 to head towards 7.18 or higher in the medium term. Support at 7.10 seems to be holding well for now.

Aussie (0.6746) saw a corrective dip from 0.6779 but has bounced back slightly. While 0.68 holds as interim resistance, Aussie could trade within 0.68-0.67 for a few sessions before moving higher eventually in the longer run.

Pound (1.2633) has fallen sharply yesterday after the lower than expected UK CPI (3.9%, Y/Y%). The fall could extend towards 1.2550 before a reversal is seen in the medium term.

USDRUB (91.0964) has risen as expected. It could head towards 92-92.50 if the upside momentum persists before again declining back towards 90.

USDINR (83.1750) traded within a narrow range of 83.19-83.1250 yesterday. Immediate resistance is seen near 83.25/30 which can be tested over the next couple of sessions before facing rejection again from there.

EURINR (91.0573) is bearish and could be soon headed towards 90.50.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall. Bearish view is intact, and more fall is on the cards. The US GDP today and PCE tomorrow are important data releases to watch for. The German yields have declined below their key supports. This can accelerate the fall further in the coming days. Outlook is bearish. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are struggling to see a strong corrective rise. The broader picture is bearish, and the yields can fall back again.

The US 10Yr (3.86%) and the 30Yr (3.99%) yields continue to fall. It keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside while below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (1.97%%) and the 30Yr (2.15%) yields have declined below their key supports at 2% and 2.2%. While this break sustains, the outlook is bearish now to see 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1679%) and 5Yr GOI (7.0929%) are struggling to get a strong bounce. This keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 7.1% (10Yr) and 7%-6.95% (5Yr) on the downside. Resistance is at 7.20% (10Yr) and 7.13%-7.15% (5Yr).

Most of the equities have witnessed huge sell off. Dow Jones failed to sustain the break above 37500 and has declined sharply. DAX needs to sustain above 16500 to keep our bullish view intact. Nifty has come down sharply contrary to our expectation to see a rise towards its resistance. Shanghai has broken sharply below the support at 2925 and while this break sustains, a further dip looks possible from here. Nikkei has fallen back failing to break above the resistance at 33800-34000.

Dow (37082, -1.27%) failed to sustain the break above 37500 and has declined sharply. A break below 37000 can trigger a deeper correction towards 36300.

DAX (16733.05, -0.07%) has to sustain above 16500 to avoid a deeper fall to 16000 and keep intact the view of seeing 17000-17400.

Nifty (21150.15, -1.41%) has come down sharply contrary to our expectation to rise towards 21700. A fall below 21000 from here can drag it down to 20700-20600.

Nikkei (33138.50, -1.60%) has fallen back as the resistance at 33800-34000 seems to have held well. A fall to 32700-32500 looks possible.

Shanghai (2898.68, -0.12%) has broken below the support at 2925. A fall towards 2850 looks possible now.

Crude prices need a decisive break above their key immediate resistances to strengthen the momentum further. Else a fall back cannot be negated. Gold remains range bound. Silver and Copper looks bullish for the near term. Natural Gas is holding well below the resistance at 2.60 and while below 2.60, view is bearish to see a further dip in the near term.

Brent ($ 79.30) is attempting to break above the resistance at $ 80. A decisive break above it can see a rally towards $ 84. Else can fall back towards $ 76-75.

WTI ($ 73.84) has dipped slightly after testing a high of $ 75.37. A clear break above $ 75-76 can open doors towards $ 78-80. Else can dip towards $ 70.

Gold (2047.80) is consolidating within 2060-2020. We will wait for a breakout on either side of the range to determine the next move.

Silver (24.51) has risen above 24.50. There is scope for a rise towards 25.00-25.30 in the near term.

Copper (3.8950) has dipped after testing a high of 3.9450. Bias remains positive for a rise towards 4.00 while above the support at 3.84-3.80.

Natural Gas (2.4160) has declined sharply towards 2.40 as the resistance at 2.60 is holding well. While it remains below 2.60, a fall towards 2.20 can be seen. Only a break higher could pave the way towards 2.80-2.90.

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -3.2 …Previous -5.9

13:30 19:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 5.2% …Previous5.1%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 3.9% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.6% …Actual 3.9%

13:30 19:00 US Current Account Balance
Expn – …Expected -197.0$ Bln …Previous -216.8$ Bln …Actual -200.3$ Bln

15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3525K …Expected 3770K …Previous 3790K …Actual 3820K

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 104.1 …Expected 104.6 …Previous 101.0 …Actual 110.7