Happy New Year 2024!

Dollar Index looks stable below 102 but could see a short rise to 102-102.50 while Euro could fall to 1.0950-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY look bearish towards 155/154 and 140-138 respectively from where bounce can be expected. USDCNY can trade within 7.0875-7.15 for the near term. Aussie and Pound also look bearish for a dip towards 0.6750 and 1.26. USDRUB can attempt to rise to 92 while above 88. USDINR can trade within 83.10-83.30 for the next few sessions. EURINR has fallen sharply and could head towards 91.50-91.00 before reversing from there in the medium term.

Dollar Index (101.529) looks stable below 102 just now. A short rise to 102-102.50 is possible in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1023) saw profit taking near 1.1139 last week but currently trades above 1.10. A fall towards 1.0950-1.09 cannot be negated within the current corrective fall.

EURJPY (155.96) has broken below the lower end of the 159-156 range that we have been mentioning over the past few editions. If the break below 156 sustains, it could drag itself down to 154 in the next few sessions. Immediate view is bearish below 158/156.

Dollar-Yen (140.98) has declined after a short rise to 142.85. The pair may hold below 143 in the near term. Note crucial support near 138-140 region which could produce a short bounce before resuming the medium term downtrend.

USDCNY (7.1227) seems to be rising from 7.0875 tested last week. If the rise holds, the pair can pull up towards 7.15/16 or higher else can continue sideways movement within 7.0875-7.16 for some more time.

Aussie (0.6803) seems to be declining sharply and could be headed towards 0.6750 soon. Immediate view is bearish.

Pound (1.2723) has fallen after a short rise to 1.28+ last week. Now, the pair could come down towards 1.26 before pausing.

USDRUB (89.3510) is holding within 88-94 region for now, bouncing from the lower end. A rise to 92 looks possible in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.2225) traded between 83.2450-83.1450 yesterday while global markets were closed for New Year. The pair could hold below 83.30 for the next few sessions with 83.10 being a possible low for the week.

EURINR (91.7772) has fallen sharply from 92 over the last few sessions and looks bearish for a further dip towards 91.50-91.00.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up. The corrective rise is happening in both of them in line with our expectation. There is room to rise further in the coming days before the overall downtrend resumes. The 10Yr and the 5Yr GoI are consolidating within their downtrend. The bias remains negative to resume the fall eventually in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (3.88%) and the 30Yr (4.03%) yields continue to move up. The corrective rise can find resistance at 4% (10Yr) and 4.15%-4.2% (30Yr). The downtrend is likely to resume thereafter targeting 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The German 10Yr (2.02%%) and the 30Yr (2.26%) yields have risen further. While above 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr), the yields can test 2.2%(10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) and then resume the downtrend towards 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.1969%) looks mixed. It keeps alive the chances of testing 7.24% before resuming the downtrend targeting 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0889%) failed to sustain the break above 7.12% and has come down again. The bearish bias is intact to see 7%-6.95% on the downside. For now, 7.04%-7.13% is the trading range.

Dow Jones and Nifty have key resistances ahead which can be tested in the near term before a corrective fall can happen. DAX remains range bound. Shanghai has scope to test its immediate resistance before a pause can be seen.

Dow (37689.54, -0.05%) can test 38000 while above 37500. A corrective fall thereafter can drag it down to 37000-36500.

DAX (16751.64, +0.30%) is still stuck between 16600 and 16800 within its overall uptrend. While above 16500 one more leg of rise to 17200-17400 can be seen before a sharp correction happens.

Nifty (21741.90, +0.05%) can rise to 22000-22200 on a break above 21850. But thereafter a corrective fall to 21000-20000 can be seen.

Nikkei (33464.17) is closed till Wednesday.

Shanghai (2969.75, -0.17%) is lacking strength to rise above 2975. But bias remains bullish for a test of 3000 before a pause can be seen.

Crude prices have rebounded but needs to overcome their resistances to ease the downside pressure. Gold, Silver and Copper have scope to test their key immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas has broken its sideways range on the upside and looks bullish to move up further from here.

Brent ($ 78.09) has rebounded from a low of $ 76.73. But it has to overcome $ 80-81 to rise towards $ 84-85. Else can trade within a broad range of $ 81-72 for a while.

WTI ($ 72.53) has bounced back from a low of $ 71.36. However, it has to surpass $ 75-76 to move up towards $ 78-80. Else can trade sideways within $ 76-70/68 for a while.

Gold (2076.60) is holding well below the resistance at 2100. While below 2100, a dip towards 2040 can be seen before a bounce back can happen.

Silver (24.03) remains lower and has scope to fall towards 23.50-23.30 before a bounce back is seen.

Copper (3.8910) continues to dip. It can test 3.86-3.85 before a bounce back can happen. For now, the 3.95-3.85 range remains intact. Only a break lower can see an extended fall to 3.83.

Natural Gas (2.6480) has broken the 2.60-2.30 range on the upside. While it sustains above 2.60, a rise towards 2.7-2.8 can be seen.

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.5 …Expected 50.4 …Previous 50.7

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.5 …Expected – …Previous 56.0

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 44.2 …Previous 44.2

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
Expn 45.0 …Expected 46.4 …Previous 47.2

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
Expn 49.5 …Expected – …Previous 47.7

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
No major data released yesterday