Dollar Index is rising as expected and could test 102.50 while Euro could fall to 1.0950-1.09. EURJPY looks bearish towards 155/154 while USDJPY has risen back and could test 143 now, contrary to our expectations of seeing a fall towards 140-138. USDCNY is rising towards our mentioned targets of 7.15/16. Aussie is headed towards 0.6750/0.67 while Pound is near its immediate support of 1.26 which needs to produce a bounce else could be vulnerable to fall towards 1.24. USDRUB rose sharply yesterday but seems to be falling from 91 now. USDINR rose slightly past our expected resistance of 83.30 but later it eventually came down. The 83.35-83.20 range could hold for the day. EURINR has risen above 91 and could test 91.50 soon before pausing.

Dollar Index (102.179) is slowly rising in line with our expectations and could further witness a short rise to 102.50 or slightly higher in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.0949) has adhered to the anticipated fall to 1.0950-1.09 mentioned in yesterday’s edition. A break below 1.0950 will drag it lower to 1.09.

EURJPY (155.52) continues to trade below 156 keeping our view intact to see a fall to 154 soon. A short bounce from 155 if seen could be short lived. Overall view remains bearish below 156.

Dollar-Yen (142.01) contrary to our expectations of pair testing 140-138 on the downside, it has risen back. But the resistance at 143 could hold well and probably push the pair down again in the near term. An immediate range of 140-143 can persist for now.

USDCNY (7.1491) seems to be gradually rising towards the mentioned targets of 7.15/16. Thereafter price action around those levels would be important to watch as whether it rises further or continues sideways movement within 7.0875-7.16 region.

Aussie (0.6755) remains bearish for a fall to 0.6750-0.67 in the next few sessions as Dollar strengthens.

Pound (1.2628) is headed towards support at 1.26, which if holds could lead to a bounce back towards the upper end of the 1.28-1.26 range. A break below 1.26 if seen, could make it vulnerable to test 1.24 on the downside before possibly pausing. Watch price action at 1.26.

USDRUB (90.4218) rose sharply to test 91 but has dipped back from there again. and could soon test 92 on the upside. A break above 91 is needed in the next few sessions to resume rise towards 92-94. Else it can fall back to 89/88.

USDINR (83.3225) did rise to levels above 83.3375 and could continue to trade within 83.35/40-83.20/15 range for some more sessions.

EURINR (91.2209) has risen slightly from 91.0692. If the rise sustains, we may expect a short rise towards 91.50 before again resuming the fall towards 90.50.

The US Treasury and the German yields are witnessing a corrective rise in line with our expectation. Both the yields can rise further from here in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI can move up to test its resistance before turning down again to resume the downtrend. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is stuck in a narrow range within its broader downtrend.

The US 10Yr (3.93%) and the 30Yr (4.07%) yields are heading up towards 4% and 4.15%-4.2% respectively. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the downtrend is resuming towards 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) or an extended corrective rise is going to happen.

The German 10Yr (2.06%%) and the 30Yr (2.30%) yields are holding well above 2% and 2.2% respectively. There is room to test 2.2%(10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) before the broader downtrend resumes towards 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2105%) is moving up to test the 7.24%-7.25% resistance zone. The downtrend can resume thereafter targeting 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0916%) remains stable around 7.10%. Bias is negative to see a fall to 7%-6.95% on the downside. For now, the 7.04%-7.13% range remains intact

Dow Jones has scope to test its immediate resistance before a corrective fall can happen. DAX was volatile yesterday but as long as it holds above 16500, our bullish view will remain intact. Nifty has to sustain above 21500 to move up towards its resistance. Shanghai has declined failing to rise past 2975 but 2925 could lend some support and keep our view intact for a rise towards its resistance.

Dow (37715.04, +0.07%) keeps intact our view of seeing 38000 while above 37500. But have to be careful of a corrective fall thereafter towards 37000-36500.

DAX (16769.36, +0.11%) was volatile yesterday. While above 16500 the view is bullish to see 17200-17400. Thereafter a sharp reversal is possible.

Nifty (21665.80, -0.35%) has to sustain above 21500 and breach 21850 to move up towards 22000-22200. A break below 21500 can drag it down to 21200 first. It is a wait and watch situation now.

Nikkei (33464.17) is closed today.

Shanghai (2963.53, +0.04%) has come down further failing to break above 2975. Immediate support is at 2925. While that holds, a test of 3000 resistance is still possible on the upside.

Crude prices have fallen back sharply after disappointing US S&P manufacturing PMI for Dec-23. Gold and Silver have scope to test their key immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Copper is approaching 3.85. Failure to hold above 3.85 can drag Copper further down. Natural Gas has fallen back but downside could be limited to 2.50-2.45.

Brent ($ 75.85) has come down sharply after testing a high of $ 79.06. View is bearish for a fall towards the lower end of the $ 81-72 range.

WTI ($ 70.42) has fallen back sharply from a high of $ 73.64. It can come down further towards $ 68, the lower end of the $ 76-68 range. A break below $ 68, if seen, can see an extended fall to $ 67-66.

Gold (2070.60) remains well below 2100 and has scope to dip towards 2040 before a bounce back can happen.

Silver (23.90) has declined below 24. A test of 23.50-23.30 looks likely before a bounce back can be seen.

Copper (3.8660) is coming down towards 3.85 as expected. Failure to hold above 3.85 can see a further dip towards 3.80 or even 3.78.

Natural Gas (2.5870) has come down from yesterday’s high of 2.6750. But while above the support at 2.5/2.45, there is scope for a rise towards 2.7-2.8 in the near term.

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.5 …Expected 55.9 …Previous 56.0

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
Expn – …Expected 43.0 …Previous 42.1

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 46.2 …Expected 47.2 …Previous 46.7

DATA YESTERDAY
—————

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.5 …Expected 50.4 …Previous 50.7 ….Actual 50.8

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 44.2 …Previous 44.2 ….Actual 44.4

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
Expn 46.1 …Expected 46.4 …Previous 47.2 ….Actual 46.2

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
Expn 49.5 …Expected – …Previous 47.7 ….Actual 45.4