The Dollar Index has dipped from 104 itself, contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise to 104.5 while Euro has risen sharply above 1.08, keeping the view bullish to 1.09-1.0950. EURJPY could soon test 164-165. USDJPY continues to remain stable above 150 but is likely to move towards 151 before declining. USDCNY remained flat within its range of 7.18-7.20. Aussie is likely to fall within the 0.66-0.65 region while Pound is moving higher within the 1.26-1.2730 range. EURINR is attempting to rise back towards its resistance of 90-90.25 but while below it, view remain bearish to 89 in the medium term. USDINR tested 82.86 yesterday and overall, the range of 82.80/75-83 is likely to hold for this week.

Dollar Index (103.756) started to decline from 104 itself contrary to our expectation of seeing a rise to 104.50 before getting rejected from there. The index is moving towards the lower end of the 104.5-103.5 range. A break below 103.5 if seen, could make it further bearish to test 103 soon. For now, immediate range of 104.5-103.5 may hold for the day.

EURUSD (1.0850) rose back to 1.0850 contrary to testing 1.08-1.0775 on weaker Dollar Index. Sustained rise can take it higher towards 1.09/1.0950 soon.

EURJPY (163.30) is rising in line with our expectations and could further test our mentioned targets of 164/165 before topping out soon.

Dollar-Yen (150.49) continues to remain stable within a narrow region of 149.50-150.90/151. If 151 holds as decent resistance, a fall towards 149 or lower can come into the picture soon

USDCNY (7.1978) has been trading flat within its range of 7.18-7.20 but sticking to the upper end of 7.19-7.20 since the last few sessions making it a bit indecisive to predict if it would break above 7.20. If the pair manages to break above 7.20, it can target 7.22/24 on the upside else can fall back within the broad mentioned range towards 7.18. Watch price action near 7.20 this week.

Aussie (0.6526) has been falling over the last 2-sessions from crucial resistance at 0.66. It could be headed towards 0.65/6450 again in the medium term.

Pound (1.2676) is heading towards the upper end of its narrow range of 1.26-1.2730 within which an initial decline looks likely.

USDINR (82.8950) tested 82.86 yesterday but traded within a narrow range of 82.86-82.91. For the week we expect a range of 82.80/75-83 to hold.

EURINR (89.9305) is possibly attempting to rise back towards the resistance of 90-90.25 but unless a decisive break past it is seen, view remains intact to see a fall towards 89 or lower in the medium term.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen back sharply recovering from the fall seen on Friday. The supports have held very well and are keeping alive the bullish view. Both the German and the Treasury yields can rise further from here in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains stuck in a narrow range within their broader downtrend. A fresh fall is possible after some near-term consolidation.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and the 30Yr (4.39%) yields have risen back and are keeping our bullish view intact. While above 4.2%, the 10Yr can rise to 4.4%-4.6%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.6% while above 4.3%.

The German 10Yr (2.44%) and the 30Yr (2.57%) yields have risen back again. The 10Yr sustains well above 2.35% and can rise to 2.6%. The 30Yr can rise to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0642%) has risen back above 7.05% from a low of 7.0416%. A sustained break below 7.05% can take it down to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8%. Until then 7.05%-7.15% can be a broad consolidation range.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0520%) has risen back into its 7.04%-7.08% range after an intraday dip to 7.0342. As mentioned yesterday, 7.04%-7.10% can be a slightly wider range of trade for some time. While below 7.1%, a fall to 7% is likely to be seen.

Dow Jones is holding well below the its key long term resistance but a break below 39000 will confirm the beginning of a correction. DAX has key resistance overhead which can halt the current rally and produce a fall from there. Nifty has dipped further but has near term supports which may hold and produce a bounce back from there. Nikkei sustains higher and has scope to target new highs in the near term. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3000.

Dow (39069.23, -0.16%) has dipped. The 39300 resistance is holding well for now. A fall below 39000 can take the Dow down to 38800-38500. That will indicate the beginning of a correction.

DAX (17423.23, +0.02%) is holding higher. 17500-17700 can be tested after which a corrective fall to 17200-17000 is possible.

Nifty (22122.05, -0.41%) is struggling to get a sustained rise above 22250. Immediate outlook is slightly unclear. Supports are at 22000 and 21800. A fall below 21800 will be needed to drag the Nifty down without seeing a test of 22500.

Nikkei (39165, -0.11%) remains higher above 39000. A rise towards 40000-40500 is possible while it remains above 39000.

Shanghai (2981.40, +0.15%) is holding well below the resistance at 3000. While below 3000, a dip towards 2900 can be seen.

Crude prices have recovered from yesterday’s fall but broader outlook will remain bearish while they hold below their key resistance. Gold to trade sideways within 2060-2000 range for a while. Copper looks bearish for the near term while below 3.90-3.95. Silver has scope to test its key support of 22 before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas is stuck in a narrow range but bias is positive to see a break on the upside.

Brent ($ 81.58) bounced back towards $ 82 after testing a low of $ 80.19. But while below the resistance at $ 84-85, a fall towards $ 80/79 is still possible or even lower towards $ 75 going forward. We expect a broad range of $ 85-75 to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 77.57) recovered from a low of $ 75.87. However, view remains bearish for a fall towards $ 75-73 while below the resistance at $ 80. A broad range of $ 80-70 is expected to hold for some time.

Gold (2043.20) is hovering below the resistance at 2050-2055. A rise past these resistance, if seen, can open doors towards 2090-2100. Else it can trade sideways within a broad range of 2060-2000 for a while.

Silver (22.55) has fallen back sharply after facing rejections from 23. A test of 22 looks likely before a bounce back can happen towards 23-23.50. Broder outlook remains bullish to see an eventual break on the upside and rise towards 24-24.50 or even higher towards 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8265) has come down sharply below 3.85 and is heading towards 3.80 as expected. The resistance at 3.90 is holding well. It might break below 3.80 and fall further towards 3.75-3.70 in the near term.

Natural Gas (1.7370) remains stuck within 1.65-1.80. However, bias is positive to see a break above 1.8 and rise towards 2.0-2.1 in the near term as long as it holds above 1.5.

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous2.6

13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 0.2% …Expected -4.7% …Previous 0.0%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 5.9% …Expected 6.0% …Previous 5.4%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 113.8 …Expected 114.8 …Previous 114.8

DATA YESTERDAY
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15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 678K …Expected 680K …Previous 664K